Bill Gates Says DVDs Have No Future

By Derek Sooman on July 14, 2004, 1:24 PM
Bill Gates, the man who obviously decides everything about computers, has decreed that DVDs shall whither and die, for they have no future as a storage medium.

"In an article published in the German mass-circulation daily Bild, Gates said DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest."

"He said the concept of carrying around film and music on little silver discs to stick them into a computer was ridiculous. He moaned that DVDs could get scratched or get lost."




User Comments: 52

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Phantasm66 said:
"He moaned that DVDs could get scratched or get lost."Get lost... what, like the release of XP Service pack 2?
Per Hansson said:
Well, he is right, the DVD format is just crap... CD was great when it got introduced, offering an immense ammount of storage space.The same could not be said about DVD when it got introduced... Just a minor increase in storage capacity and that was it...
nico1606 said:
Well I'm not sure about minor...I mean maybe DVDs dont do much for storage but lets look atXbox, Ps2, DVD videos... I mean without DVDs none of these things wouldn't be possible.
Per Hansson said:
nico1606; sure, DVD was an improvment, but such a small one that it will only last a couple of years...Compare that with how long the CD has lived!When the CD was introduced no-one had so large harddrives in their PC's!!
nico1606 said:
Ya good point.But do you think the CD was so popular because:A. It helped with storageB. It helped the music industry get away from 8tracks and 40s.I mean what will BIll have us all do..Throw out our DVD players?
Nic said:
Maybe he's been mis-quoted again?I prefer DVDs to CDs, but it's a real pity that many movies fill more than a single DVD. I wonder what Bill regards as the replacement for DVDs. Maybe he knows something we don't?
Phantasm66 said:
I want to be able to copy like 500GB or something onto some kind of rod, or key. Maybe there should be a drive that takes arrays of these keys - like 8 way, 16 way, etc. Perhaps on flash memory. I think I read recently that that will get a lot cheaper.yeah, a data rod. That's the future.
nico1606 said:
Yea that was my next inquiry.I mean you can't just get rid of DVD's without replacing it with something.. Maybe those HDTV Tapes that I've read about...Personally I love DVDs as well.. More storage, better clarity and sound...what's not to love.It might not be extremely usefull on a PC (unless you watch DVDs on it) but I don't think the entertainment industry would agree with Billy.
---agissi--- said:
Ok then whats replacing DVDs..
Julio said:
DVDs were more of a evolutionary step than a revolutionary... practically were made to replace the CD as a higher-capacity media. I will have to agree that we will need something else in the coming years, now then of course Gates gets to be more radical, more than likely he knows better what future developments will be all about.
nico1606 said:
New Age Toaster Ovens.
Phantasm66 said:
[quote][i]Originally posted by ---agissi--- [/i]Ok then whats replacing DVDs.. [/quote] Don't you read other people's posts?[quote][i]Originally posted by Phantasm66 [/i]I want to be able to copy like 500GB or something onto some kind of rod, or key. Maybe there should be a drive that takes arrays of these keys - like 8 way, 16 way, etc. Perhaps on flash memory. I think I read recently that that will get a lot cheaper.yeah, a data rod. That's the future. [/quote] And I KNOW I am right about that, because its not my idea its been on Star Trek. So it MUST be true ;)
---agissi--- said:
Um actually yes phant, I did read that, but I dont think we'll have 500GB rods and keys.
Phantasm66 said:
What's your theory then....??(That's better that Star Trek's, which MUST be true ;) )
Didou said:
I'm having a hard time taking the person who said "640k of memory would suffice for everyone" seriously.I still don't have a DVD burner BTW. Someone feels like offering me one so I can make up my mind ? :D
Phantasm66 said:
Take it from me, they are pretty cool.
nico1606 said:
Hehe honestly I'm in the same boat as you Didou.No DVD Burner...hell I dont even have a dvd player in my one of my machines...because I don't need one.I know that might sound like I dont need DVDs....but I do...for other reasons other than for PCs.
Rick said:
[b][size=large]Bill Gates is completely right.[/size][/b] I have thought optical & mechnical storage is a joke since its inception and I'm sure many others have too.While there are currently no other alternatives - [b]if[/b] there were - I am certain they would be adopted very quickly less the sake of compatibility.When (if) there comes a time when solid state storage is cheap enough, that would certainly be a suitable replacement. Perhaps a holographic medium using glass, plastic or inexpensive crystal would be a good replacement.
Didou said:
Or maybe using human skin to store data (I don't think they took that patent out of spite ;) ).Fat people will have loads of storage space.:D
Rick said:
[quote][i]Originally posted by Didou [/i]Fat people will have loads of storage space.:D [/quote] :D
nico1606 said:
What exactly do you mean by Solid State Storage?Like renting a van and storing all your crap in it?
BrownPaper said:
Maybe Gates wants like a central "storage locker" that you can connect from any computer terminal. All of your most important information can be readily managed and spied upon by MS. Muhahahaha... Bill Gates is watching you. Lol.
EvilKernel said:
Then again, this is the same man who once said noone will ever need more than 1 MB of memory on a personal computer. LOLI try not to take Bill very seriously. He is probably backing some other product or idea and this is how he plays.
acidosmosis said:
In my business we use several small portable storage devices such as a small usb device no larger than 2 inches in length and about 1/2 an inch wide which we keep on our keyrings. Then we have a small portable drive almost an inch wide and 4-5 inches long which we use. These come in very handy for transferring customers data to new PC's, or carrying files such as documents around or other data.That is the future. Portability. A DVD requires a drive which is bulky at the moment and DVD's are much larger than the devices which I just mentioned.In the future everything will be portable. Even computers.
nico1606 said:
I thought computers were already portable..We call them labtops.
Spike said:
So, in recent time's, in terms of removable data storage, we've gone from Floppy disks which didn't fit in your pocket, to floppy disks you COULD fit in your shirt poket.From there, we had CD's that you have to carry in a case that won't fit in your pocket in case they get scratched, to DVD's generally in bigger cases, that like being scratched even less.And in the future we are possibly looking at little data keys, like the USB flash memory sticks we have now that will fit on your keyring? (maybe)I wish someone would hurry up and decide whether or not I should be carrying my data around :D
acidosmosis said:
[quote][i]Originally posted by nico1606 [/i]I thought computers were already portable..We call them labtops. [/quote] That's not true portability. Laptops are a large inconvenience in most cases. For example you can't just walk around easily with a laptop. You have to carry it. That is one good thing about pocket PC's such as the HP's IPAQ. You can carry this in your pocket or even clip it onto your belt inside a small case.
nico1606 said:
Oh well portabilty and comfortabilty are 2 different things.I mean there are labtops that weight about 5 lbs now...which helps things...but yea you're bound to bump into something...perhaps a wall..or a car.Palm pilots and pocket pcs (as you said) are a nice alternative...but you can't play Doom III on those bad boys :)Not yet anyways...
eddy05 said:
With my most creative stupidity, I think that in the future, storage devices will be on common accessories that we wear frequently.Examples are Rings, Earrings, Braclets and Watches.These devices/accessories will have wireless capabilities, and communicates with PCs of the future using wireless technology, something like an enhanced version of the 802.11x standard.These devices also have security features such as encryption, and identification system to identify the owner of the device.<-- Imagination running wild :D
nico1606 said:
It slicesIt dicesIt even stir fries.Yes folks come and witness the amazing wireless 30gb Nike Shoes that does it all!
Rick said:
There's a limit to exactly how small computers will get.Things like Pocket PCs and PDAs are very small and feature packed, but the screen can only get so tiny before it comes useless.A laptop works on a simliar principal. There are 2lb laptops out there, like the tiny Toshiba Portege or the extremely small Sony Picturebook... But I think those are pushing the limits of usability for typing, web browsing etc..
acidosmosis said:
Not exactly Rick. Your thinking is very confined.Your thinking physical viewscreens. There are lots of possibilitys for large viewscreens without them actually "existing". Such as a hologram type screen, or a small very thin piece of material which you "fold out" or roll out of a type of canister maybe (sort of like camera film).. or even a sort of object which you place on your head like headphones and has a view peice that goes in front of your eye. That could create a simulated very large screen in front of you. With that kind of technology you could even use your hands out in front of you to "type" or do other things. Kind of like in the movie Johnny Mnemonic. Not possible? Oh it is very possible, just not in the "near" future. The components such as a processor and other devices could in the future easily fit on a wrist band or in a small "box" on your belt. A lot of these devices ALREADY exist, but they are very expensive and still in development, but guess what, they work. It just requires a few things such as a wrist band with a keyboard on top of your arm, small wires which are built into a style of "shirt", etc.As for the near future, things are looking great. PDAs, solid state HD's which already exist in very small form. Small keyring USB Hard Disks which go over 512MB, about 5" by 3/4" USB hard disks which hold over 40GB (I believe over 60GB?) and more.My prediction, laptops in 10 years will be obsolete, and we will have much much much better technology, maybe more like what I mentioned.
Didou said:
[quote][i]Originally posted by nico1606 [/i]It slicesIt dicesIt even stir fries.Yes folks come and witness the amazing wireless 30gb Nike Shoes that does it all! [/quote]They'd go really well with my Calvin Klein underpants with embedded cellular phone. Ooooooh, it vibrates.[img]http://users.skynet.be/fa426454/images/Smilies
w00teh.gif[/img]
nico1606 said:
Yo,I'm still waiting for those Back to the Future Hoover Boards.
Unregistered said:
Based a upon billygoats quote, I believe that he is talking about flash type memory, sold state storage medium. Today we have 4GB storage on flash, last year we had 2GB, the year before 1GB, the year before 512MB... given the rate of expansion and the rate of transfer we will be @ 4TB in 10 years with a transfer rate 100x faster than DVD and a medium 1/10th the size that is not stretchable. How is this for the future?IronSmith
Unregistered said:
I feel like celebrating!
acidosmosis said:
Like it's 999?
MrGaribaldi said:
acid> Did you mean [b]1[/b]999? ;)Personally I think we'll either see crystal storage (it has been in dev. since late fifities afaicr) as seen on B5, or organic harddrives. The latter had come quite some way, but where having a problem reading the data back (when light affects the organic material used, how do you read it back with light?)... As for flash, it's still (and most likely are going to stay) way to large to be practical in the long run... We're pushing the terrabyte boundary (in regular desktops), but we've not really pushed far beyond a couple of GB's which still are in a large container. From what I recall of the crystal storage, it had the possiblity to store 500tb in a small diamond. Not the ones you find in the cheaper rings, but still small enough to fit into a ring. (Of course, how much it can store depends on the quality of the crystal...)For the DVD, well it wasn't purely evolution either, as the spec allowed for ~18 GB of storage on one disk (dual layer dual sided) but those who created the drives and plates didn't push those. And that was in a time that 10GB was a lot, and almost double of that on a cd sized disk was incredible... But I agree that in the way it was introduced as single layer single sided it wasn't very good. As for how long it will live, have anyone seen what has happened to the medias that cd's were going to make obsolete? Vinyl is still with us, and most pro DJ's prefer them due to better quality than the same album on a cd, and doesn't seem to be going away for good. It has taken a backseat, but new albums are still released on that medium?Or what about VHS? It too has taken a back seat, but it's still here with us. And that is after the "replacement" for the CD (the DVD) has been here for several years... If you think about it, a lot of the technology that has been supersceded is still with us... LTP1 and PS2 connectors on the back of the computer? Floppy drives? Heck, it's not uncommon getting a com/serial port on your motherboard....!So whereas migthy B might be correct that we'll have a replacement for DVD's in 10 years time, I have this nagging feeling it'll still be with us some time into the future... Because we've got to remember that not everyone in the world is as eager to push the level of technology, nor as interested in upgrading as we are, which means that even after we've made the transition the old system will still be in use by most of the world...
acidosmosis said:
[quote][i]Originally posted by MrGaribaldi [/i]acid> Did you mean [b]1[/b]999? ;)[/quote] No, I mean 999 :-P. Inside joke ;-). Would have to have played Diablo 2 lol.
TS | Thomas said:
Well, in the future seemingly storage will be via some sort of central repository. So I guess when this happens we'll merely purchase a licence to be able to view a movie - which we'll then merely stream into our homes via some sort of wireless system (Bandwidth ought not to be a concern at this point of course). More than likely it'll probably be some sort of renewable licence at that.
ether.real said:
the answer is simple....jack into the mass Petabytes of grey matter between your ears....interface with your optic nerves....all you need is an interface to your network/PC/etc....
acidosmosis said:
Your thinking a little too far into the future there ether.real, we may not even be alive to see such a thing. Either way, I sure wouldn't let someone jack into my brain for their use or my use. Either way. For lack of better words, screw that. =D
Tvhawk said:
there are also blue lasers which are supposed to be able to put like five times as much data on the discs that we already have......or so i have heard.
Someone Close said:
Well guys, i think the way forward is the portable memory sticks are the way forward, They are small, light and very easy to carry around, almost like having a pen in your pocket!!They are becoming popluar here in england :DAlso an other brilliant, i mean brilliant storage system if it was brought about as a storage medium is the ipod, At thie minute it only holds music files (i think) but these have up to 40GB of storage space in one little handheld device. I think they have a harddrive in them. Although these things are deseptive in weight and quiet heavy these would be a great new storage device.Maybe not for the top pocket, they would fit in the pocket or clip on the belt.Someone Close (aka Someone)
videobruce said:
Wasn't he the one who said "640k ought to be enough for anyone"?
Didou said:
[quote][i]Originally posted by acidosmosis [/i]Either way, I sure wouldn't let someone jack into my brain for their use or my use.[/quote]Especially since we don't know where they stick the jack in.:p/me covers his wazoo...
Nic said:
[quote][i]Originally posted by videobruce [/i]Wasn't he the one who said "640k ought to be enough for anyone"? [/quote]He didn't actually say that, but was misquoted. Unfortunately it stuck :=).
Rick said:
Anything to make Bill look bad, huh?
BrownPaper said:
I think that 640k quote was probably taken out of context. Maybe enough for the computers and what they did at the time, but he probably did not envision the games, videos and other amazing things we are doing and will do.I wonder if Bill is going to eat his words with this DVD thing though, though I do believe him later down the road.
Nic said:
Well, I've no reason to doubt Bill. By obsolete that could mean something better has taken its place, but it doesn't neccessarily mean that DVDs will no longer be produced or available. Ten years is an awfull long time in technology terms.
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