Blu-ray is in the lead with about 2.2 million discs sold worldwide, compared to about 1.5 million HD DVD units over the same time period (since launch). That is a fairly significant gain, and continued sales show around a 2-to-1- advantage that Blu-ray has over HD DVD. Figures like these might convince some retailers to prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD, which could spell trouble for companies like Toshiba.
However, it's still fairly early in the game – those figures are a drop in the bucket compared to existing media, so things might change rapidly. Particularly since HD is winning on price, backers like Toshiba and Microsoft might have an opportunity to come ahead.