Who really is winning? I don't think it matters – at least not anymore. The price points of both camps still puts the hardware out of the range of the general consumer. Only people specifically looking for HD content are going to gravitate towards Blu-ray or HD DVD. The rest will stick with DVD. Content may become an issue – if movie companies still decide to choose one over the other. Neither Toshiba nor Sony can make any truly boastful claims about how many units they've sold, as the numbers are still relatively low.
Without factoring in the PS3, HD DVD does have a marginal lead – 55% versus 42%, with a very small number of units being dual-format. I still think, and hope, that the dual-format players will be the ultimate choice – with price driving it. Once we see a significant number of deployed units, maybe 10 million on either side, then I think comparisons might be worth it. DVD is still reigning supreme, however, and until that is no longer the case I don't think Sony or Toshiba has much room to claim themselves winners of anything.