Acer has also said they plan to have over 100,000 Blu-ray notebooks out on the market before the end of this month. That's not quite 10% of their 22 million unit goal for the year, but there's plenty of time for them to get more out the door.
The biggest factor driving shipments will no doubt be price, but with vendors like Dell already going down to decent pricing for machines sporting Blu-ray, that 10% may not be too difficult to achieve if the demand is also there, of course. It wasn't all that long ago when a Blu-ray standalone player was over $1000. Now you can get an entire machine, including the player, for under that.