Linux on netbooks to fall below 10% in 2009

By Justin Mann on March 17, 2009, 4:11 PM
The early days of the netbook were happy ones for Linux advocates, who saw the new platform as the perfect medium to get a Linux distribution into the hands of more users than ever. Initially, that might have been the case – the first few Eee PC machines all came stock with Linux and many other vendors were considering it as an option. That quickly changed, however, with Windows XP taking the lead and holding it despite the higher cost involved due to licensing.

Recent studies have shown that Microsoft’s operating system absorbed nearly 90% of the netbook market, close to where it is on traditional desktops and notebooks. The figure is expected to rise even higher, and analysts believe that Linux will fall from its record high of 70% in 2008 to below 10% this year. With over 23 million netbooks expected to ship this year, Linux is definitely missing a great opportunity for adoption here.




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x darthmonkey x said:
It's interesting that a free and generally excellent software platform like Linux has such difficulty holding a market down. Among other things, it really shows our propensity to stick with what's familiar, despite increasingly valid arguments to break out of the box.I multiboot Vista, Kubuntu and Fedora... but my main OS is predominantly Vista, by a huge margin - and not just because it works with my software.Still, anyone who has ever had any real experience with Linux can tell you a few things:1: It's really different, no matter what interface or kernel you slap on it.2: There is no shortage of open-source software to use on Linux.3: A good Linux distro can be just plain fun.Linux really needs to pick up the pace in certain aspects, like gaming and multimedia for me (While there are many fantastic multimedia apps for linux, it still doesn't cut it in my opinion)Hopefully, OpenGL 3.0 will help in those two points.
Ed Vim said:
I can't put too much faith in this particular article, its content and even the title reads more like a MS fanboy blog posting than an article from a tech news source. It's an idle prediction, not a white paper study. Note the referred to 'Recent studies...' just links to yet another TechSpot opinion piece. Mainstream media in the US wears its badge of biased subjectivity proudly for some odd reason. Balanced portrayal of news and facts is something that has to be sought out, not presented to us.I find it hard to believe a few weeks ago MS's netbook market share was 35%-50% (depending on the source you wanted to accept) and has risen to the stated 90% in such a short time. Also keep in mind those MS market share numbers in the 90s may have been valid in the Desktop market up until even a year or so ago but if you read up on other sites there can be a lot more realistic analysis of MS's current state -- there's quite a difference between quoted sales figures and an actual install base. And the netbook market has become it's own unique segment.
isoutar said:
This article fails to notice that the coming generation of Net Books will be in the $150 range. They will use ARM processors that are incapable of running Windows. This is where Linux will flourish without competition in the most popular netbook architecture for the developing world ... but they may also become dominant in Europe and North America for travellers and school children. Ushered in by the OLPC invention this next generation net book will no longer have to even compete with Windows which will be unavailable on low end netbooks.Ian SoutarMicrosec R&D Inc.Victoria BC Canada.
Julio said:
[b]Originally posted by isoutar:[/b][quote]This article fails to notice that the coming generation of Net Books will be in the $150 range. They will use ARM processors that are incapable of running Windows. This is where Linux will flourish without competition in the most popular netbook architecture for the developing world ... [/quote]The article looks at trends where sales would seem to indicate that the average consumer is more interested in a netbook that runs Windows and not in one that doesn't.The OLPC initiative and its derivatives will keep using Linux-based operating systems but that doesn't represent the bulk of netbook usage or sales, not even in developing nations.
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