Cisco: Web traffic to quadruple by 2015, filesharing cut in half

By on June 1, 2011, 5:59 PM

Cisco has released its fifth annual Visual Network Index Forecast, predicting a rapid growth in Internet traffic and connected devices in the coming years. By 2015, the company believes global Web traffic will quadruple, reaching 966 exabytes per year. Cisco estimates that global Internet traffic between 2014 and 2015 will increase by 200 exabytes, which is said to be greater than the total amount of traffic generated in 2010. Mobile broadband will increase 26 times to 75 exabytes a year.

Such incredible growth is attributed to four primary factors -- though none are particularly shocking, with the most obvious contributor being the proliferation of handsets, tablets and other consumer electronics. While full-fledged PCs accounted for 97% of consumer Internet traffic in 2010, users will gradually rely more on mobile devices and Web-enabled appliances. By 2015, PC traffic will fall to 87%, while Web-enabled TVs will represent 10% of all Internet traffic and 18% of video traffic.

Network-connected devices will outnumber the world's population two to one in less than four years. More devices equals more users and Cisco estimates that there will be some three billion Web-goers by 2015, or 40% of the world's population. The company also predicts that the average fixed broadband speed will increase four-fold from 7Mb/s to 28Mb/s. If that sounds hard to believe, Cisco noted that the average broadband speed has actually doubled from 3.5Mb/s to 7Mb/s in the last year.

Armed with media-friendly companion devices and speedier connections, Cisco projects that people will consume more Web-based videos. By 2015, the Internet video community will receive 500 million new users and over 1.5 billion people will stream one million video minutes (674 days) every second. Traffic associated with "advanced videos" such as those that offer high-definition or 3D visuals will increase 14 times. Interestingly, filesharing traffic is expected to decline by a whopping 40%.

User Comments: 3

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princeton princeton said:

Filesharing decline by 40%. Unless they expect software, music, movies ect to become free I don't see that happening.


Conveneince factor with streaming TV shows and movies are a huge portion of this, and will continue to grow. Furthering our need to upgrade the backbone infrastructure and adding more lines between from smaller cities to their closest hub.

Although it would help if we could get more services like Amazon who offer downloadable copies. I tried this, but the compression used was almost twice as big as it needed to be, DRM protected, and you couldn't save it or play it from network storage. Which is crap for us who have home media servers built specifically for that purpose. If I can buy my episode of Top Gear for $1-3 with no DRM protection and in a standard format in 720p, and store it on my network server then i'll be happy to buy.

Sorry went off topic a bit, but the point i'm trying to make is if people can download and keep a copy of their movie or TV show on their home media servers that will reduce a small chunk of unnecessary repeat bandwidth consumed on the internet.

jobeard jobeard, TS Ambassador, said:

Traffic associated with "advanced videos" such as those that offer high-definition or 3D visuals will increase 14 times. Interestingly, filesharing traffic is expected to decline by a whopping 40%.
That is an assumption based upon increase Cloud applications, like the Apple announcement allowing personal pictures and music to be stored in the Cloud instead of locally. The idea is one can access your media regardless of your physical location.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, but so far this is all crystal balls, smoke and mirrors - - can you define ASSUME?

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