Hard drive prices to remain above pre-flood levels until 2014

By on June 8, 2012, 8:00 AM

A new report from IHS iSuppli says that mechanical hard drive prices are not expected to return to pre-flood pricing until 2014 despite a rapid recovery process that is in full swing.

Hard drive prices skyrocketed following the October 2011 floods that damaged Seagate and Western Digital production plants in the area. Costs jumped 28 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter last year as shipments fell 29 percent. Pricing held steady at $66 in Q1 2012 while analysts predict asking prices will decline marginally to $65 in the second quarter.

The report notes that shipments increased by 18 percent to 145 million in the first quarter and another 10 percent to 159 million in the second. Furthermore, another 10 percent increase to 173 million is expected in Q3 but prices will likely continue to remain inflated.

PC sales are expected to climb throughout the rest of 2012 which means more hard drives will be needed. Ivy Bridge and the emergence of third generation Ultrabooks in the coming months as well as Microsoft’s release of Windows 8 later this year are key forces driving the demand.

As such, multiple OEMs have signed long-term agreements with hard drive makers to guarantee shipments and lock in pricing that is only 20 percent higher than pre-flood levels.

With solid state drive pricing continuing to drop and performance on the rise, now might be as good a time as any to jump on that bandwagon if you are building a new system or simply desire a significant speed boost from your current notebook or deskop.




User Comments: 35

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Guest said:

well bugger me!!

psycros psycros said:

Here's a thought: build your vulnerable technology plants somewhere other than coastal jungles that get monsoon rains every year. What about West Virginia? They'd probably work for about the same as Taiwanese and you never hear about them getting tornadoes and crap.

Staff
Jesse Jesse said:

" Pricing held steady at $66 in Q1 2012 while analysts predict asking prices will decline marginally to $65 in the second quarter."

Pricing of what?

cliffordcooley cliffordcooley, TechSpot Paladin, said:

Pricing of what?
Thats a good question.

ikesmasher said:

that is utterly ridiculous.

slh28 slh28, TechSpot Paladin, said:

Does anyone find it fishy that during this whole hard drive "crisis" there were never any hard drives out of stock (or more so than usual)?

1 person liked this | SNGX1275 SNGX1275, TS Forces Special, said:

And this is why I haven't bought a drive since. The price inflation is pretty artificial, there have been numerous stories about how production shouldn't have been impacted as much as is implied.

I used to be a huge HD consumer, I have 4 internals and one external on my main machine. Then I have 4 other machines and a couple of them have externals hooked up to them. But since the floods, I've changed my hd usage to deal with what I have now. I really hope I don't lose a 2TB drive, but I simply can't afford to replace one now. If one dies I'm just SOL. Not buying 2-3 year old tech at over the cost it was a couple years ago.

ikesmasher said:

Does anyone find it fishy that during this whole hard drive "crisis" there were never any hard drives out of stock (or more so than usual)?

when they put one on sale for 50 bucks (750 GB) back in november, it had appeared while I was browsing newegg, and disappeared about 3 or 4 minutes later. so they were at least a little.

Guest said:

Maybe where you live. Over here there were plenty of stores and online retailers that had their stocks depleted, and everytime they managed to get a few more HDD's the price was almost double

LNCPapa LNCPapa said:

And this is why I haven't bought a drive since. The price inflation is pretty artificial, there have been numerous stories about how production shouldn't have been impacted as much as is implied.

I used to be a huge HD consumer, ... Not buying 2-3 year old tech at over the cost it was a couple years ago.

I second this.

Scshadow said:

I vow not to buy another hard drive. I'll get laptops without hard drives somehow and buy an SSD for it. Maybe its a bad move because SSDs are price fixed too, I'm just going to hope that SSD price fixing is the lessor of 2 evils. Hard drives can suck it.

Guest said:

I agree...I use to buy Hard Drives but haven't since this artificial crisis began. They are still way over priced. When I repair computers I always search out eBay ones now instead of new ones. Hard Drive manufactures think they are making more money but they aren't with less sales.

Jack Reacher said:

Note to HDD manufacturers, (notably Seagate & WD):

You can lie to a liar and kid a kidder ... But you can't bullshi* an old bullshi**er ... The days of mechanical HDD are numbered and those numbers have been drastically shortened by your obvious greed.

madboyv1, TechSpot Paladin, said:

I bought a 1TB drive since I needed a spare for the RAID. It's never safe to run without a spare handy. Other than that I've withheld from purchasing HDDs as well.

Guest said:

This speculation from a forecaster / analyst (I wonder what company payed him / her to research this "data").

Stinks of hogwash, prices have dropped to or below pre tsunami lvls, this is just a marketing ploy to say hey we might price gauge soon... Again!

Guest said:

someone attached a scan of a field mouse licking bell end chedder off its tassle earlier. gone now

Guest said:

or here in south africa.

treeski treeski said:

Stinks of hogwash, prices have dropped to or below pre tsunami lvls, this is just a marketing ploy to say hey we might price gauge soon... Again!

Where do you prices at pre-flood levels? I bought a 2TB 7200 RPM for ~$75, and now I can't find the same for less than $120.

Guest said:

yikes yikes - a pig with a barrel in its eye!

Guest said:

$66? $65? What are we talking about here?

Guest said:

I think this is an advertisement to get people who have been waiting for pre-flood prices to return before purchasing additional hard disks, to go ahead and pull the trigger now. I am proud to say I haven't purchased a jar of peanut butter since the prices went up. And I am not gonna purchase a hard drive at these criminal prices until they get back to normal.

I have an email from newegg telling me about one of their sales where I could purchase a 2TB Western Digital 3.5" hard disk for $69.99. When we get back to those prices, I'll think about buying a new hard disk. Until then I'll keep re-using my old drives. I have a 250gb, a 500gb, a 120gb an 80gb and lots of blank DVDs and BD-Rs. So to Western Digital and the other price gougers, don't wait for me to buy your hard disk. I'll be waiting on YOU. 2014 to get back to pre-flood prices? No problem. That works for me.

Guest said:

Ha ha, no sweat. I'm on the road to get my #4th SDD drive. I'll just wait for my old HDDs to die all .. eventually and I'm sure - by then - there will be no point in buy another HDD, ever!

gwailo247, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

I used to be a huge HD consumer, I have 4 internals and one external on my main machine. Then I have 4 other machines and a couple of them have externals hooked up to them. But since the floods, I've changed my hd usage to deal with what I have now. I really hope I don't lose a 2TB drive, but I simply can't afford to replace one now. If one dies I'm just SOL. Not buying 2-3 year old tech at over the cost it was a couple years ago.

I am 100% in the same boat as you. I used to buy a new drive when space ran out, but now I either burn stuff onto DVDs or delete it. I can't force myself to spend close to double or at least 1.5 times what I paid for the same drive earlier.

abysal abysal said:

Yeah this is a nice scam these drive manufactures are running. I'll wait till 2TB drives come down to mid $60's.

Guest said:

What a bunch of morons. Can you click the LINK to the report? Very first thing in the report....the $65 is the ASP, or Average Selling Price, of all hard drives sold globally. And no, that's not retail pricing.

As for the shortage being contrived....I guess morons don't read the newspaper, visit news sites online or watch TV news. There was a MASSIVE FLOOD (massive meaning it covered 1/3 of the total land mass in Taiwan!) that took out a huge number of HD plants and plants that make critical pieces for almost ALL of the HD makers.

I went over to Taiwan as part of a salvage group hired by Nidec, a company that supplies nearly 3/4 of all the drive motors for WD, Seagate, Samsung, Hitachi and Toshiba. We brought DIVERS to go down and try and recover machinery and other equipment, that's how much under water these places were.

So yeah, sit there on your asses and toss out your uninformed conspiracy theories since that's a lot easier than actually trying to find the facts.

Morons.

1 person liked this | LNCPapa LNCPapa said:

I'm sorry, I don't know if I sensed any rage in your last post, Guest. Sure, we "morons" may not have all the info, but the only thing we can do to combat the still inflated prices is speak with our wallets. Those who really need additional storage now will buy it. Those who can wait or refuse to pay the after-flood premiums will wait. If you think there has never been a conspiracy within a company that is masked by tragedy then I think you may be the one with the blinders on.

-*****#1

Guest said:

Where's the damn thumbs up "like" button when you actually need it!

ikesmasher said:

What a bunch of morons. Can you click the LINK to the report? Very first thing in the report....the $65 is the ASP, or Average Selling Price, of all hard drives sold globally. And no, that's not retail pricing.

As for the shortage being contrived....I guess morons don't read the newspaper, visit news sites online or watch TV news. There was a MASSIVE FLOOD (massive meaning it covered 1/3 of the total land mass in Taiwan!) that took out a huge number of HD plants and plants that make critical pieces for almost ALL of the HD makers.

I went over to Taiwan as part of a salvage group hired by Nidec, a company that supplies nearly 3/4 of all the drive motors for WD, Seagate, Samsung, Hitachi and Toshiba. We brought DIVERS to go down and try and recover machinery and other equipment, that's how much under water these places were.

So yeah, sit there on your asses and toss out your uninformed conspiracy theories since that's a lot easier than actually trying to find the facts.

Morons.

how long ago was that? water evaporates you know, and it seeps into the ground, and based on common sense and science, it all should have been MONTHS ago. When you have that many hardware companies depending on you and have that much income, its not the end of the line to restart a chunk of your factories.

I know they all had it tough over there, and I feel bad for them. But the big companies are NOT even close to the worst off people there, they have it pretty damn easy.

treetops treetops said:

I got a 7200 rpm 2 tb hd for about 100$ a month ago, I was in desperate need of a 2nd drive. I was considering a ssd butttttt, not with this oil company type news.

gwailo247, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

LOL. I guess we should be happy that at least some people on this planet still believe in altruism and are incapable of believing that a company would keep prices high artificially to make larger profits.

Good luck Guest, and good luck with helping out that Nigerian prince...

Guest said:

the floods werent in taiwan they were in wales

Doctor John Doctor John said:

There are floods in Wales, but I humbly suggest that this is a separate issue.

Guest said:

Ohhh yes, they were. At least at the internet store I go to most of the time, prices stayed flat for a few days, then some hard drives went out of stock, then more went out of stock, then prices went up, and at the peak of the price hike, prices were more than double what they had bee nb efore and less than a third of models were in stock, most were shippable at "unkown" dates...

... on the corporate side of things, the place I work for buys "professional" machines, meaning "established" technology, meaning nothing larger than 500 GB, for prices I wouldn't pay for twice that. And those were in stock alright. I bet the makers of those computers have them stockpiled in huge numbers because they're barely being manufactured anymore.

3DCGMODELER 3DCGMODELER said:

Just dont shut your HD's off....

na just kidding..

I have 2 Spare drives, WD 10,000 rpm drives, 600 gig ea...

Yep just watch for sales...

yep yep

avoidz avoidz said:

Same as others here. I am holding out buying any new HDs until this greedy scam ends.

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