Bonusweb got a reponse from John Carmack regarding GeForce FX performance in Half-Life 2 & expected performance in other future games (Doom III namely).
Unfortunately, it will probably be representative of most DX9 games. Doom has a custom back end that uses the lower precisions on the GF-FX, but when you run it with standard fragment programs just like ATI, it is a lot slower.