Economist says China must seize TSMC if the US tightens sanctions

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3ogdy

Posts: 67   +54
Russia's image is only dented in the west.

The rest of the world is taking note of USA's bullying tactics AND the fact that Russia hasn't really been hurt by them. (Don't believe me? Google how the ruble is doing)

So powers like China are taking note of the possibility of standing up to the bully and walking away the winner.

Standing up to the bully is standing up to Russia, which invaded a sovereign country for no reason other than Putin's wet dream of recreating the Soviet Union.
 

Vulcanproject

Posts: 1,554   +2,843
If China actually seized it then the U.S should destroy everything on Taiwan. It sounds nuts but it is probably a better situation with 'if we can't have it, you can't have it.'

It would set the planet back at least 10 years in semi conductor production and technology but the difference is China couldn't rebuild the industries there or replicate them in China to the same level. The U.S given time however along with the western world plus Japan and Korea, could.
 

gamerk2

Posts: 729   +697
If China actually seized it then the U.S should destroy everything on Taiwan. It sounds nuts but it is probably a better situation with 'if we can't have it, you can't have it.'

It would set the planet back at least 10 years in semi conductor production and technology but the difference is China couldn't rebuild the industries there or replicate them in China to the same level. The U.S given time however along with the western world plus Japan and Korea, could.
Keep in mind, advanced EUV equipment is made by one company (ASML) and thus it would take far longer then a decade to ramp up to replace TSMC. In fact, ASML's production is a limiting factor in the growth of the industry.

Also, China is quite willing to pour TRILLIONS into industries they deem priorities; by and large the west isn't. So if it comes down to a race to rebuild an industry from the ground up...yeah, we're not winning that one.
 

Vulcanproject

Posts: 1,554   +2,843
Keep in mind, advanced EUV equipment is made by one company (ASML) and thus it would take far longer then a decade to ramp up to replace TSMC. In fact, ASML's production is a limiting factor in the growth of the industry.

Also, China is quite willing to pour TRILLIONS into industries they deem priorities; by and large the west isn't. So if it comes down to a race to rebuild an industry from the ground up...yeah, we're not winning that one.
I'm well aware that it would take over 10 years to ramp, but ASML is a Dutch company with most important locations well outside of China. China can pour all they want into an industry, it has never guaranteed results for them. Partly because they have never worked all by themselves....

Everything is just stolen. The advantage the west had and always had was that it is the true powerhouse for technical innovation and development. That still hasn't changed. China would be crippled and their development stunted without TSMC products, the worst scenario is where they aren't and they control the world's major cutting edge semi conductor production. Nightmare scenario.

So you don't let them have one brick left on top of another if that day came.
 

gamerk2

Posts: 729   +697
I'm well aware that it would take over 10 years to ramp, but ASML is a Dutch company with most important locations well outside of China. China can pour all they want into an industry, it has never guaranteed results for them. Partly because they have never worked all by themselves....

Everything is just stolen. The advantage the west had and always had was that it is the true powerhouse for technical innovation and development. That still hasn't changed. China would be crippled and their development stunted without TSMC products, the worst scenario is where they aren't and they control the world's major cutting edge semi conductor production. Nightmare scenario.

So you don't let them have one brick left on top of another if that day came.
Disagree. Yes, China steals a LOT, but they've also shown the ability to innovate all on their own.

Don't make the mistake of believing propaganda.
 

Vulcanproject

Posts: 1,554   +2,843
Disagree. Yes, China steals a LOT, but they've also shown the ability to innovate all on their own.

Don't make the mistake of believing propaganda.
They really haven't.

It's unofficial policy of China to pursue extreme IP theft and industrial espionage on a scale not seen since the late 1920s and 1930s. When the Soviet Union dispatched their spies all over the planet towards institutions of unwitting advanced nations, to carry out precisely the same policy.

I have spoken about this history before, how complacent western nations were and how their open nature makes them vulnerable to this. China still takes full advantage in every avenue. Their development to this point today is absolutely due to this exploitation, and not their own independent efforts. Ditto USSR.

Don't make the mistake of ignoring history.
 

AlaskaGuy

Posts: 439   +339
And good luck with the race to the bottom in terms of cost. That race is why we are where with are with companies finding the absolute cheapest place to manufacture things. The model is not, and has not been working for some time - unless you count that people like to pretend it works when they can buy things for less.
Big companies tend to migrate to business friendly states.
 

defaultluser

Posts: 477   +366
If China actually seized it then the U.S should destroy everything on Taiwan. It sounds nuts but it is probably a better situation with 'if we can't have it, you can't have it.'

It would set the planet back at least 10 years in semi conductor production and technology but the difference is China couldn't rebuild the industries there or replicate them in China to the same level. The U.S given time however along with the western world plus Japan and Korea, could.


Who's to say Taiwan wont already do that?A few well-paced incendiaries , and it by-bye fabs - You assume they can take the forces on Taiwan by-surprise when around 100 miles of sea separated the two countries.

So no secret crossing of the english channel PART 2 because that happened before effective boar t radars existed. Plus, it's 5 times longer diwtance than the channel (which makes logistics of a surprise precision strike ten times more expensive!)

The fact that none of these fabs are hidden, or anywhere near warproof means the likelihood of even acquiring the things without colossal amounts of damage is nearly impossible.
 

Bluescreendeath

Posts: 309   +440
Isn't this circular logic? The USA would only implement sanctions like that on mainland China if they invaded Taiwan.

So this guy is saying mainland China should invade Taiwan if the US implemented sanctions, but those sanctions would only be implemented if mainland China invaded Taiwan in the first place.
 

moon982

Posts: 106   +30
And good luck with the race to the bottom in terms of cost. That race is why we are where with are with companies finding the absolute cheapest place to manufacture things. The model is not, and has not been working for some time - unless you count that people like to pretend it works when they can buy things for less.

China is starting to make their own chips now with chip ban to China. The US and west are now coming to hard truth that offshoring to cheap country can hurt them selfs if such country has dictator.

 

moon982

Posts: 106   +30
Tell me, what was the UN vote denouncing Russia's invasion of Ukraine again?

Oh right, facts. Now, the US is no shining angel either, but to say "most people in the world" are with Russia is a lie, plain and simple.

The UN does not mean any thing as the US controls the UN and most of the council and discussions is made up of wealthy countries. With the US setting the policies of the UN.

Well Africa, Middle East, South America, Caribbean Islands and South west Asia has no discussions making in the UN.
 

moon982

Posts: 106   +30
Hopefully, tech companies like Google, Apple, AMD, and others are listening to this. I know Intel is, however, the fact of the matter is Apple can afford to build a few fabs at least for its own stuff if not for others. Google could also afford to build a few fabs.

Unfortunately, the "tech Gods" :rolleyes: will probably ignore what is going on until it all blows over, or blows up in their faces. The latter, IMO, they, except perhaps Intel, are unprepared for it

NY State is semiconductor manufacturing friendly - however, I think most of this is university or researched based. The industry needs to wake up from their "we can get it cheaper out of the country" slumber. https://www.ny.gov/americas-microch...-developments-semiconductor-industry-new-york


That will not happen as mostly likely they will just go to India or Thailand than move back to the US.
 

Dimitrios

Posts: 1,069   +881
If China actually seized it then the U.S should destroy everything on Taiwan. It sounds nuts but it is probably a better situation with 'if we can't have it, you can't have it.'

It would set the planet back at least 10 years in semi conductor production and technology but the difference is China couldn't rebuild the industries there or replicate them in China to the same level. The U.S given time however along with the western world plus Japan and Korea, could.

Agree. Also what I realize is that it we still need China and China still needs us.
 

gamerk2

Posts: 729   +697
They really haven't.

It's unofficial policy of China to pursue extreme IP theft and industrial espionage on a scale not seen since the late 1920s and 1930s. When the Soviet Union dispatched their spies all over the planet towards institutions of unwitting advanced nations, to carry out precisely the same policy.

I have spoken about this history before, how complacent western nations were and how their open nature makes them vulnerable to this. China still takes full advantage in every avenue. Their development to this point today is absolutely due to this exploitation, and not their own independent efforts. Ditto USSR.

Don't make the mistake of ignoring history.
Speaking as someone who works in the defense industry, while China absolutely steals a ton, you are ignoring a lot of the work they have done, independent of IP theft. By underestimating the Chinese and attributing their rise only to stolen IPs, you are minimizing what they are capable of, which is underestimating their capabilities (at best) and a dangerous assumption (at worst).
 

gamerk2

Posts: 729   +697
The UN does not mean any thing as the US controls the UN and most of the council and discussions is made up of wealthy countries. With the US setting the policies of the UN.

Well Africa, Middle East, South America, Caribbean Islands and South west Asia has no discussions making in the UN.
Hahahaha no.

Yes, the UN Security Council, by makeup, was designed for no other purpose then to make sure the US/USSR actually joined (unlike the LoN) and is fundamentally unfair. But it also ensures the US *can't* dominate the UN. And if anything, the UN has been a constant thorn in the side of the US's policy objectives for decades now.

Or does the fact that in an open vote, over 200 countries voted to condom Russia's invasion? Hard to argue how the world backs Russia, but hey, facts. Feel free to keep minimizing facts you disagree with, the public record across the world is quite clear.
 

Endymio

Posts: 1,828   +1,894
Even with the BS Colin Powell unwittingly spouted about WMD in Iraq, I think the rest of the world agrees that the world, and Iraq, is better off without Saddam Hussein in it.
Was it worth killing 200,000 (three times that if you believe the Lancet figures) innocent civilians to get rid of him?

I'd put Russia's "war" on the Ukraine much lower on the "right thing to do scale" than the US' Invasion of Iraq.
Well, let's see. Iraq never openly threatened to acquire nuclear weapons and attack the US directly, as Ukraine did. Iraq never cut off the water supply to hundreds of thousands of US citizens, as Ukraine did. Iraq may have given a little to Hamas, but it never funded terror groups organized solely to kill Americans like Ukraine did ethnic Russians.
 

Endymio

Posts: 1,828   +1,894
the ruble is doing fine on paper, but their GDP is down nearly 75% since the start of the war.
Err, what? Russia's economy is based almost solely on oil, natural gas, and metals -- and they're selling record amounts of all three at present, at record-high prices. The ruble isn't just "doing fine on paper" -- it's actually much higher now than it was before we placed sanctions on Russia.
 
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