Expect SSD and RAM prices to rise as memory manufacturers slash production

midian182

Posts: 8,328   +103
Staff member
Why it matters: We've been experiencing low RAM and SSD prices for a while now, a result of weakening consumer demand and excess inventory, but that could end sooner than expected after Micron and other manufacturers announced they are reducing production.

The latest report from TrendForce notes that memory pricing started declining in the fourth quarter of 2021. The usually lucrative peak season was a disappointment due to weakening demand combined with skyrocketing inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and pandemic policies, all of which caused a build-up of inventory.

The report notes that the average contract price of mainstream capacity wafers has fallen so much that some manufacturers are close to selling at a loss.

Last month brought more reports of SSDs getting cheaper as NAND prices plummet—TrendForce wrote that the situation was unlikely to change anytime soon. But it seems Micron's announcement last week that it would cut DRAM and NAND Flash production in response to the situation has changed the analyst's prediction.

Micron, which is spending up to $100 billion to build a megafab in New York, is one of the three computer memory manufacturers, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, that produce the majority of RAM chips found in devices, so its actions will have an impact. Soon after Micron made the announcement, Kioxia announced that it would be reducing NAND Flash production by 30% from this month.

TrendForce believes that while DRAM production will fall, it won't see a significant reduction in production compared to NAND Flash.

Micron's announcement also means its plans to increase production of 232-layer NAND Flash in the fourth quarter have been put on hold as it continues to focus on 176-layer products throughout 2023.

The report notes that we could see more manufacturers limiting production as only a large-scale reduction in output can reverse supply and demand imbalance throughout next year.

Rising prices isn't the news AMD and Intel will have hoped for, given the companies' support of both PCIe 5.0 SSDs and DDR5 in their platforms. Team red's Zen 4 architecture only supports DDR5, unlike Intel's 12th-gen and upcoming 13th-gen chips, which support both DDR4 and DDR5, so the latter memory becoming very expensive (again) is going to be an especially unwelcome sight for AMD and its fans. If you plan on upgrading, doing it sooner rather than later might be the best course of action.

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emmzo

Posts: 766   +1,184
I feel this kind of news are paid, not directly, mind you, it's a "rumor" that snowballs to push sales. Make them more expansive, please, bring it on, let's see who the fk buys em. Maybe the truth is there's low demand and they have to cut loses.
 

PEnnn

Posts: 956   +1,250
So, all those ad nauseum (and constantly repeated) glowing articles about SSD and RAM prices getting lower and cheaper are now totally nullified by this one article. As expected!

And nobody believed any of the above was getting cheaper anyway!.
 

Skjorn

Posts: 716   +586
So, all those ad nauseum (and constantly repeated) glowing articles about SSD and RAM prices getting lower and cheaper are now totally nullified by this one article. As expected!

And nobody believed any of the above was getting cheaper anyway!.
I remember reading like 3 headlines about how it's supposed to drop over 15%. Kept thinking to myself now who is going to have the fire/ emergency shutdown first but I guess that will come after production has slowed and inventory drained a bit.
 

Geralt

Posts: 1,307   +2,100
Thanks to this article, I decided to buy right now a second Samsung 980 Pro to mount a RAID setup. Good!
 

Revolution 11

Posts: 235   +329
How will they justify higher prices when all the new fabs are up and running?
Each of these new fabs will make 1 stick of RAM each? Anyway, I got the impression that the new fabs ordered back in early 2021 are still a year or more away from mass production.
 

Gastec

Posts: 284   +141
Daniel Sims, September 27, 2022: "SSD price slump shows no end in sight. This fall looks like a good time to invest in PCIe 4.0 storage".

Rob Thubron, October 6, 2022: "Expect SSD and RAM prices to rise as memory manufacturers slash production. You might want to upgrade sooner rather than later."
 

UdyrL

Posts: 42   +62
Daniel Sims, September 27, 2022: "SSD price slump shows no end in sight. This fall looks like a good time to invest in PCIe 4.0 storage".

Rob Thubron, October 6, 2022: "Expect SSD and RAM prices to rise as memory manufacturers slash production. You might want to upgrade sooner rather than later."
I suppose the "end" took about 10 days, and by "fall" they meant the first two weeks.
 

waclark

Posts: 707   +451
What a surprise, they learned to control inventory to bring prices where they want.
Free market huh? My arse.
That's kind of how a free market works, right? When demand is high and prices are low, then that will normally result in higher prices due to product availability. When prices get high enough other players will either jump into the market or increase production and lower prices to increase marketshare.
 

waclark

Posts: 707   +451
This could have an unintended consequence of really hurting AMD's CPU sales. Everyone is holding on DDR5 due to cost. If the cost doesn't come down then maybe people will go Intel 13th gen with DDR4.

Hopefully the demand for DDR5 will force manufacturers to keep the production lines going.
 

Athlonite

Posts: 389   +154
Well atleast this time they're telling the truth about price rises instead of some BS Fire, Flood, Earthquake, Power outage, etc etc etc
 

Skjorn

Posts: 716   +586
Well atleast this time they're telling the truth about price rises instead of some BS Fire, Flood, Earthquake, Power outage, etc etc etc
I want to agree but I also kinda expect it. It's like they're getting ready for it lol