Intel CEO thinks chip shortage could extend into 2024

Daniel Sims

Posts: 456   +18
Staff
In brief: Since 2020, consumers have been looking for signs of the end of the global chip shortage, making electronics like new game consoles and PC graphics cards almost impossible to find at fair prices. Now, Intel's CEO thinks these conditions will last another two years, and others agree.

Last Friday, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger told CNBC he thinks the chip shortage will last into 2024. His reason is that, as with chips, the tools for manufacturing semiconductors are suffering scarcity too. Intel's previous estimate was that the shortage might end in 2023.

Companies including Intel and TSMC are building new manufacturing plants to meet the rising demand at the heart of this crisis, but they don't expect to be up to full speed until 2024. Over the last few months, Intel competitor TSMC and research firm Techet have also predicted a constrained semiconductor supply lasting into 2024. However, the deciding factor they indicate is manufacturing capacity.

In the meantime, some are resorting to unique methods to shore up supply. Last month, ASML's CEO said some companies have started recycling chips from washing machines for use in newer products.

The good news is that some retailers, including Target and Best Buy, have begun easing restrictions and are beginning to sell PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X consoles in some of their brick-and-mortar locations. Likewise, the situation regarding GPUs has improved in recent weeks. Nvidia has strengthened the supply of its graphics cards, and prices are getting closer to MSRP. Both cases should help ease tensions for gamers trying to avoid scalper price gouging.

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Dimitriid

Posts: 2,209   +4,246
Could have been better if it wasn't for some !(#@(# (That is, YOU Pat.) Deciding they just had to waste everybody's time and a lot of forge space on TSMC to launch an almost guaranteed to fail AGAIN line of GPUs.
 

QuantumPhysics

Posts: 6,308   +7,247
This chip shortage is an excellent time to invest. A whole lot of production will be aimed at preventing future chip shortages.
 

p51d007

Posts: 3,156   +2,656
Shortages are excellent for business. Especially if they`re "controlled". You sell before you even can produce. Who`d want to stop that?

Yep! Just look how DeBeer's controls the diamond market. A hardened lump of carbon, they only release a certain amount, keeps the price sky high.
 

Mr Majestyk

Posts: 1,217   +1,113
For once I agree with Gelsinger. Lisa Su's claims that the problems would ease this year are looking rather ridiculous.
 

Irata

Posts: 2,112   +3,652
Could have been better if it wasn't for some !(#@(# (That is, YOU Pat.) Deciding they just had to waste everybody's time and a lot of forge space on TSMC to launch an almost guaranteed to fail AGAIN line of GPUs.

Priorities - limiting your competition‘s production capacity is more important than the market getting good supply.

I‘m still puzzled why TSMC went along with this. Any die that Intel does not sell is potentially one more sold by its competitors which happen to be long term TSMC clients.
 

Theinsanegamer

Posts: 3,364   +5,591
Why not just predict shortage to extend to 2028 then if it ends before we feel lucky !!!
Because the powers that be are convinced that if they keep wishing they can find a solution to continued shortages.

But that's not how it works at all. A just in time supply chain has 0 redundancy or overprovisioning, and if it gets disrupted it will continuously operate in catchup mode, with every lockdown and restriction making the problem worse. The only way a JIT model catches up is if demand craters for a significant period of time.

We warned of this in the 70s.
 

Dimitriid

Posts: 2,209   +4,246
Priorities - limiting your competition‘s production capacity is more important than the market getting good supply.

I‘m still puzzled why TSMC went along with this. Any die that Intel does not sell is potentially one more sold by its competitors which happen to be long term TSMC clients.
I agree that under normal circumstances and likely for any other company, it would probably not be a deal they´ll enter in: If anything just to make sure they have space for Apple for example.

However I've gone on record here saying I think Taiwan overall is at risk, if not on track, to become the next Ukraine. So just anyone giving them a lot of business like intel, which was possibly able to pay them even above what they charge other customers, is a net positive while they make as much money as they possibly can as quick as they can because honestly, political circumstances make their future uncertain at best.
 

wiyosaya

Posts: 7,705   +6,648
I‘m still puzzled why TSMC went along with this. Any die that Intel does not sell is potentially one more sold by its competitors which happen to be long term TSMC clients.
sIntel probably figured that limiting competition space would be the result and probably paid TSMC plenty of big $$$$$$$ to monopolize that space. I would not put it past sIntel to stoop to that level of scum.
 

wiyosaya

Posts: 7,705   +6,648
It could also extend to forever which seems more likely as time goes by.
I understand why you would feel that way, but with all the announcements of new fabs actually being constructed, and dropping retail prices, I, for one, have hope for the future.
 

Nobina

Posts: 3,776   +4,207
I understand why you would feel that way, but with all the announcements of new fabs actually being constructed, and dropping retail prices, I, for one, have hope for the future.
Maybe, but by the time that's all done, I don't know if I'll even give a sh.
 

Revolution 11

Posts: 135   +173
Yep! Just look how DeBeer's controls the diamond market. A hardened lump of carbon, they only release a certain amount, keeps the price sky high.
To be fair, it is stupid customers who insist on "natural" diamonds instead of just buying synthetic diamonds that are superior in every attribute. If the whole market shifted to synthetic diamonds, the value/price would crash.