Leaked Intel roadmap shows its 10nm desktop CPUs won't arrive until 2022

midian182

Posts: 6,005   +50
Staff member

The leaked roadmap comes courtesy of Dutch site Tweakers. Bear in mind that we can’t 100 percent guarantee its authenticity.

When it comes to desktop chips, it appears Intel is keeping with the 14nm++ process for a while. The Comet Lake-S processors, which were recently reported to have up to 10 cores, will launch around the second quarter of 2020. After this comes Rocket Lake-S, which will also be based on the 14nm process, albeit a further refined one.

This suggests we won’t see a 10nm desktop Core CPU until 2022, which is when Intel is expected to release its Ocean Cove processor architecture, which follows 2021’s Golden Cove and 2020’s Willow Cove.

Things are a bit different on the mobile front, where the first 10nm Ice Lake chips are scheduled to arrive later this year. The process will be used for low-powered U-series and Y-series chips, but the slide has it down as “limited” production, which means we won’t see Ice Lake CPUs in too many devices. We can expect to see more Comet Lake-U CPUs and other 14nm-based mobile chips in the future: the H and G series appear to be sticking with this process until at least 2021.

The chart also mentions Rocket Lake-U. Based on the 14nm process and set to launch in the middle of next year, these chips have up to six cores combined with a 10nm-based GPU.

Intel has been struggling with 10nm for some time. The company claimed in its recent earnings report that it expects to ship more 10nm Ice Lake-U parts than anticipated. But having to wait years before seeing mainstream desktop parts based on this process is disappointing, especially with AMD’s Ryzen 3000-series CPUs, based on 7nm Zen 2 architecture, on their way.

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dj2017

Posts: 160   +168
Intel is screwed.
The same was said when Intel was behind AMD's Athlon64. But Intel had OEMs in it's pockets and Pentium 4s where keep selling better than Athlons. Intel doesn't have OEMs in it's pockets today, not as much as it had them 15 years ago, but they are still very depended on Intel and they will never risk going mostly AMD. Intel will keep selling better than AMD, unfortunately, at least for the next couple of years. AMD NEEDS to stay ahead for many years before we see Intel to start having problems.
 

ShagnWagn

Posts: 1,297   +1,081
Two things holding me back from building a new rig:

1. Video card price/performance is still way behind the curve. I haven't really seen any notable gains for me to upgrade at the price they want.
2. Waiting for an overclocking gem CPU, such as the i7 920 and q6600 were. My main rig has a 6700k, which was an overclocking disappointment, but it is still fast enough for my needs. My main rig at the time was the 920 at 6-7 years old.
 
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yRaz

Posts: 3,380   +2,913
Intel is screwed.
The same was said when Intel was behind AMD's Athlon64. But Intel had OEMs in it's pockets and Pentium 4s where keep selling better than Athlons. Intel doesn't have OEMs in it's pockets today, not as much as it had them 15 years ago, but they are still very depended on Intel and they will never risk going mostly AMD. Intel will keep selling better than AMD, unfortunately, at least for the next couple of years. AMD NEEDS to stay ahead for many years before we see Intel to start having problems.
There was a period of a few months when ryzen 2 came out that it out sold Intel even to OEMs.

AMD might still be behind(in some areas) on the high end, but the price performance of their low end chips is absurdly better than Intel's. OEMs don't play fanboi, they play "we need to build the best product we can for as cheap as possible".
 

netman

Posts: 559   +194
"Leaked Intel roadmap shows its 10nm desktop CPUs won't arrive until 2022"

And after that they will have several iteration of 10nm such as "+", "++", "+++", "++++" and on and on. We won't see the 7nm parts until 2030! Good luck Intel!
 
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wiyosaya

Posts: 5,363   +3,444
Intel is screwed.
The same was said when Intel was behind AMD's Athlon64. But Intel had OEMs in it's pockets and Pentium 4s where keep selling better than Athlons. Intel doesn't have OEMs in it's pockets today, not as much as it had them 15 years ago, but they are still very depended on Intel and they will never risk going mostly AMD. Intel will keep selling better than AMD, unfortunately, at least for the next couple of years. AMD NEEDS to stay ahead for many years before we see Intel to start having problems.
There was a period of a few months when ryzen 2 came out that it out sold Intel even to OEMs.

AMD might still be behind(in some areas) on the high end, but the price performance of their low end chips is absurdly better than Intel's. OEMs don't play fanboi, they play "we need to build the best product we can for as cheap as possible".
Didn't sIntel get taken to court for having the OEMs in its pocket, I.e., an anti-trust lawsuit?

If they did, they will likely not try to pull the same thing again.

Assuming the rumors are true, it does not bode well for sIntel.
 
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pcnthuziast

Posts: 864   +484
Reebok has a better shot ousting Nike, than AMD ousting Intel. Art of war baby, Intel knows what it's doing and I'm not flinching just yet.
 

ShadowDeath

Posts: 152   +97
Intel is screwed.
The same was said when Intel was behind AMD's Athlon64. But Intel had OEMs in it's pockets and Pentium 4s where keep selling better than Athlons. Intel doesn't have OEMs in it's pockets today, not as much as it had them 15 years ago, but they are still very depended on Intel and they will never risk going mostly AMD. Intel will keep selling better than AMD, unfortunately, at least for the next couple of years. AMD NEEDS to stay ahead for many years before we see Intel to start having problems.
It was also illegal and Intel got caught doing it. Just think though.. Intel's 10nm in 2022... while AMD is most certainly looking at 5nm now. Funny how Intel can have all that money and fall behind AMD like they did. That's got to be embarrassing.
 
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Lew Zealand

Posts: 1,558   +1,556
TechSpot Elite
Any Intel chip shortage happens as a result of Intel selling everything it can make to the OEMs, who already have their high CPU volume contracts sewed up. You and I get whatever leftovers we can afford to pay for.

That means high margin i9-9900Ks, not Pentium Gold 5400s or even Core i5-8259Us (Intel's own i5 NUCs have been OOS for a while now).

With this news, for the first time I think AMD will be able to gain big consumer market share from Intel purely on availability alone, as long as their 7nm chips match Intel's IPC and clocks.
 

poohbear

Posts: 483   +361
Still on a 4790k, and had a 2500k before that. If this is true, then I'm upgrading next year to an AMD chip. Haven't had one since the athlon 64 days, but good to know competition is back! Intel seems to have deprioritized desktop CPUs, its not a money maker for them so they just dont care. Ill go with AMD then.
 

wiyosaya

Posts: 5,363   +3,444
Any Intel chip shortage happens as a result of Intel selling everything it can make to the OEMs, who already have their high CPU volume contracts sewed up. You and I get whatever leftovers we can afford to pay for.

That means high margin i9-9900Ks, not Pentium Gold 5400s or even Core i5-8259Us (Intel's own i5 NUCs have been OOS for a while now).

With this news, for the first time I think AMD will be able to gain big consumer market share from Intel purely on availability alone, as long as their 7nm chips match Intel's IPC and clocks.
As I see it, the only place where sIntel has a lead is in IPCs and clocks - which seem to mostly count in the gamer market. Outside that arena, AMD is proving itself to be an effective competitor.

It won't be long now before AMD reveals what it has up its sleeve. It will be interesting to see, but it won't mean the end of AMD if what they release does not please the gamer market.
Why would Comet Lake and Rocket Lake be released for Xeon first. This has never been the case.
Because AMD caught them with their pants down in the server market and is gaining a foothold in that market that sIntel cannot afford to laugh off or ignore.
 

Nightfire

Posts: 253   +156
Because AMD caught them with their pants down in the server market and is gaining a foothold in that market that sIntel cannot afford to laugh off or ignore.
Xeon E is labeled as server but it is not really a 'server chip' per se. They are just desktop parts with no o/c and ecc support. Basically, for every Xeon E part they sell, they are really selling one less Core desktop part. It is a zero sum gain. It has just been the case that Xeons are launched later as they get less press coverage of a new architecture or node.
 

Bullwinkle M

Posts: 355   +228
So many FanBoys, so little time!

Lets be honest, if Intel advertised like AMD, then Intel has already mastered the 7nm node and is currently stockpiling 5nm chips!

Seriously though, when AMD can match the clocks and IPC of Intel's 14nm chips from last year, then AMD will finally have mastered actual 14nm instead of the imaginary node the fanboys think they are on

By then, Intel will be way ahead on a factual node
 

Nightfire

Posts: 253   +156
So many FanBoys, so little time!

Lets be honest, if Intel advertised like AMD, then Intel has already mastered the 7nm node and is currently stockpiling 5nm chips!

Seriously though, when AMD can match the clocks and IPC of Intel's 14nm chips from last year, then AMD will finally have mastered actual 14nm instead of the imaginary node the fanboys think they are on

By then, Intel will be way ahead on a factual node
It seems you haven't been keeping up with current events. Intel has advertised they were 'shipping' 10nn since late 2017. Actual 10nn desktop is still nowhere in sight. Just as laughable is when the released their "9th gen" hedt parts last year. Most expected a 14nm++ part but instead we got SkylakeX with solder. At last, Intel will be launching the 14nm++ hedt parts in the form of Cascade Lake later this year.

Meanwhile, AMD is indeed launching 7nm in about a month.

The latest rumor, as of today, is that Ryzen 3 was hitting 4.5 ghz turbo with a 15% IPC boost. If that leak is even half true, AMD has already completely closed the gap. Oh and with more cores for around the same price to boot.
 

jpuroila

Posts: 223   +117
So many FanBoys, so little time!

Lets be honest, if Intel advertised like AMD, then Intel has already mastered the 7nm node and is currently stockpiling 5nm chips!

Seriously though, when AMD can match the clocks and IPC of Intel's 14nm chips from last year, then AMD will finally have mastered actual 14nm instead of the imaginary node the fanboys think they are on

By then, Intel will be way ahead on a factual node
Wow, it's almost like the only fans Intel has left are the ones who are totally clueless. You do realize that a)AMD already matches Intel in IPC and b)that has literally nothing to do with the process node, right? Literally the ONLY advantage Intel has left is higher clocks...
 

Bullwinkle M

Posts: 355   +228
So many FanBoys, so little time!

Lets be honest, if Intel advertised like AMD, then Intel has already mastered the 7nm node and is currently stockpiling 5nm chips!

Seriously though, when AMD can match the clocks and IPC of Intel's 14nm chips from last year, then AMD will finally have mastered actual 14nm instead of the imaginary node the fanboys think they are on

By then, Intel will be way ahead on a factual node
Wow, it's almost like the only fans Intel has left are the ones who are totally clueless. You do realize that a)AMD already matches Intel in IPC and b)that has literally nothing to do with the process node, right? Literally the ONLY advantage Intel has left is higher clocks...
Wow, that's fantastic!
I never knew that AMD finally matched Intel in IPC (per core/per clock)

That is AMAZING that AMD has come so far as to match Instructions "per core" to Intel

Please link me to the Info you have on AMD's amazing IPC

If it turns out to be factually correct that AMD can match the performance "per core" to a Top Intel chip at the same frequency, then I'm ALL IN!

Can they also match the power requirements "per core" ?
If they can, I'd suspect that AMD's 7nm is approximately equal to Intel's 14nm

Hope so cuz I'm ready to buy TODAY!
Just waiting for that link now

Today Man, TODAY!
 

jpuroila

Posts: 223   +117
Wow, that's fantastic!
I never knew that AMD finally matched Intel in IPC (per core/per clock)

That is AMAZING that AMD has come so far as to match Instructions "per core" to Intel

Please link me to the Info you have on AMD's amazing IPC

If it turns out to be factually correct that AMD can match the performance "per core" to a Top Intel chip at the same frequency, then I'm ALL IN!

Can they also match the power requirements "per core" ?
If they can, I'd suspect that AMD's 7nm is approximately equal to Intel's 14nm

Hope so cuz I'm ready to buy TODAY!
Just waiting for that link now

Today Man, TODAY!
https://www.techspot.com/article/1616-4ghz-ryzen-2nd-gen-vs-core-8th-gen/
https://digiworthy.com/2018/06/14/amd-ryzen-intel-coffee-lake-ipc/

As you can see, with equal clocks, the R5 2600x performs on par with the 8700k - better in some applications, worse in others(notably gaming).
 

dj2017

Posts: 160   +168
Didn't sIntel get taken to court for having the OEMs in its pocket, I.e., an anti-trust lawsuit?

If they did, they will likely not try to pull the same thing again.

Assuming the rumors are true, it does not bode well for sIntel.
You mean that 1.5 billion dollars make them regret that they kept making many billions of dollars while they where selling Crapium 4? They regretted it so much, that they where paying everyone + the dog a few years latter when they where trying to push in the smartphone/tablet market with that contra revenue program. They found more "legal" ways to bride, they didn't change attitude.
 
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dj2017

Posts: 160   +168
There was a period of a few months when ryzen 2 came out that it out sold Intel even to OEMs.

AMD might still be behind(in some areas) on the high end, but the price performance of their low end chips is absurdly better than Intel's. OEMs don't play fanboi, they play "we need to build the best product we can for as cheap as possible".
OEMs don't expect a product to save them, so their priorities are to keep good business connections with the biggest companies, in this case Intel and Nvidia, mostly intel, because no one likes doing business with Nvidia anyway. Even if AMD creates the perfect CPU, OEMs will keep selling more Intel systems for a while at least. If AMD can convince them that they can keep making better processors and TSMC can start making enough CPUs to cover the global demand, then things can start changing. Until then, it is an uphill battle for AMD.

For now AMD needs to offer two things with Zen 2. Better IPC, to convince gamers to change side, and much much better efficiency in laptops, to push OEMs to create more AMD based models.

P.S. In case people think that I am an Intel fan, my last Intel processor was a Celeron 333A. After that everything was AMD. I do have a couple of Intel systems, but I payed nothing for those. They where gifts.
 
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