They won't be able to hold Kiev for long. Street fighting and guerrilla attacks will be too much for them.I agree most of what you said here but I disagree at one point. I doubt it will take too long for Russians to capture Kiev. But the real issue is what will happen afterwards. Kiev will fall unless NATO intervenes directly which doesn't seem probable right now. Defense systems require time to install and staff education, time that Ukrainians don't have. But in the end, not only the Russian economy will have difficult times ahead, also it's not clear what will happen in Ukraine in terms of social, political stability. And this situation will have global effects making many matters worse that it was already due to pandemics.