IDC predicts a 20% growth rate for the semiconductor market in 2024

[Alfonso Maruccia]

Forward-looking: IDC recently unveiled its latest predictions for the semiconductor industry. According to the market intelligence firm, eight pivotal trends will influence the industry's resurgence, with artificial intelligence prominently featured as one of the main drivers.

Global demand for AI and HPC accelerators is exploding, IDC recently predicted, and traditional industries are stabilizing after the downturn suffered in 2023. The semiconductor industry, which includes products covering logic integrated circuits (IC), analog IC, microprocessors, microcontrollers, and memory chips, will soon experience a new wave of growth.

IDC notes that memory chip manufacturers have implemented strict supply and production controls to elevate prices since the beginning of November. Simultaneously, the demand for AI products across all "major applications" is expected to drive overall semiconductor sales growth throughout 2024. IDC senior research manager Galen Zeng anticipates that the entire semiconductor supply chain will bid farewell to a disappointing 2023.

Among the eight trends IDC forecasts for 2024 is an increase in sales, contributing to an annual growth rate of 20 percent for the entire market. The industry witnessed a 20 percent decline in the second half of 2023, and IDC now projects a 12 percent decline for the entire year. Factors such as reduced production levels, increased penetration of high-priced HBM memory chips, strong demand for AI chips, and the gradual recovery of smartphone demand are expected to drive a 20 percent growth rate in 2024.

IDC also foresees new market developments for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and infotainment devices. The increasing trend towards automotive intelligence and electrification is expected to become a crucial driver for the future semiconductor market, according to IDC. The company anticipates that AI chips and AI semiconductor logic will extend beyond data centers and high-performance computing (HPC) systems, with new AI-enabled smartphones, AI PCs, and AI wearable devices poised for imminent market launch.

IDC predicts a positive impact on the foundry industry from production recovery, noting that major players such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are actively working to stabilize end-user demand gradually. The chip manufacturing sector is anticipated to reach new heights, experiencing double-digit growth in 2024. China's production capacity is also expected to increase, while US export bans on cutting-edge manufacturing technology will drive the country's foundries to emphasize competitive pricing and focus on "mature" nodes.

Finally, IDC anticipates a significant uptick in demand for the most advanced semiconductor packaging solutions, with the 2.5/3D package market projected to grow by 22 percent annually from 2023 to 2028. The manufacturing capacity for chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) technology is set to increase by 130 percent by the second half of 2024, with more vendors entering the CoWoS supply chain. This, in turn, will result in a "robust" supply of AI chips in 2024, further accelerating the adoption of AI technology, according to IDC.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/101397-idc-predicts-20-growth-rate-semiconductor-market-2024.html

 

[yRaz]

I can't wait for AMD APUs to make it into tablets to I cam finally install a true version of Linux on a tablet and not have driver issues because f*** you nVidia.

The funny thing is, if Microsoft hadn't become so aggressive in their anti-user BS I might still probably be an nVidia customer. Their DLSS bull still irks me but that'd be relatively minor in the grand scheme of things. If I didn't have such driver issues on Linux with my 1070ti I might be driving a 3070 or 4070 right now instead of a 6700xt.

If you want any hope of gaming on Linix you have to go AMD and thankfully Valve is dumping millions into developing Proton to make Linux gaming basically automatic. I've been using Linux since 2019 and I've seen Valve do more for gaming support through Proton than I've been able to do for myself since I started my "Linux journy"

Well there goes another tangent. I can't wait to get called back to work because this is literally the thought process my mind goes through without something to focus on.

 

[noel24]

Cutting production, raising prices, betting on AI corporate products - bad news for consumers.
When consumer products sales will fall, They will probably double down on corporate sales, again raising prices in that sector.
Bad times are coming for average folks. If You haven't already bought new PC last year, You probably missed out.
Buy, buy buy...
And It's going on and on.
Is It even "news"?

 

[yRaz]

Cutting production, raising prices, betting on AI corporate products - bad news for consumers.
When consumer products sales will fall, They will probably double down on corporate sales, again raising prices in that sector.
Bad times are coming for average folks. If You haven't already bought new PC last year, You probably missed out.
Buy, buy buy...
And It's going on and on.
Is It even "news"?

Kind of like how the housing crisis has been created by developers only building housing for luxury clients because they make more money per square freedom unit. Now we have tons of empty housing but noone wants to rent or sell it according to the law of supply and demand because it means someone has to drop their heavy bags.

 

[mistyrain]

Kind of like how the housing crisis has been created by developers only building housing for luxury clients because they make more money per square freedom unit. Now we have tons of empty housing but noone wants to rent or sell it according to the law of supply and demand because it means someone has to drop their heavy bags.

The logic is true but I do not think this will happen here. For example AMD keeps good prices with awesome chips along with long life of their sockets ( f*** you intel). But it was always true that the good margin is in the premium products. For example see what is happening in the phone market - it is declining as a whole but in it there is big increase in the premium segment.

 

[yRaz]

The logic is true but I do not think this will happen here. For example AMD keeps good prices with awesome chips along with long life of their sockets ( f*** you intel). But it was always true that the good margin is in the premium products. For example see what is happening in the phone market - it is declining as a whole but in it there is big increase in the premium segment.

Well that would be true if most new housing was built using debt. Unlike a mortgage, most developers finance these projects on a 5 year period. The idea is that it takes about a year to build it and then they have around 4 years to sell it. Typically it takes less than a year to sell a home from completion. However, we have a 2 fold problem in the US. People don't want to get a new loan with today's high interest rates but the bigger issue is that many people can't afford a home. Median home price has doubled since Covid but wages haven't kept up.

The thing is, homes are staying on the market for longer and the banks funding new construction are going to want their peice of the pie. Now, this sounds like it a simple problem to fix but the contractors who have built the homes have already taken their profit. Most general contractors subcontract nearly everything out to other contractors. The general contractor takes profit but shields itself with a corporation or LLC. The business model is generally, "bleed the company dry and pay yourself as an employee." Then, when bad times hit, the company files for bankruptcy but since the ower was paying himself as an employee he keeps all the money. The bank issuing the loan then seizes all the "company's" assets and sells them off. The general contractor then starts a new company. The owner of the previous company has no problem getting credit under the new company because he was completely shielded by his old company. the funny thing is that the owner of the new company usually buys their old equipment back at a discount when their previous companies assets are sold off. This happens about every 10 years but I know general contractors who have done this several times in my 20 year career in commercial construction.

Believe it or not, we are right at the start of this next cycle. Noone in the construction industry is buying houses right now because we all know the market is about to be flooded with cheap houses. The first sell off is going to be from the banks selling off unsold homes from companies filling for bankruptcy but then followed by a secondwave caused by individuals defaulting on their mortgages by being laid off.

There is then a third wave caused by banks filling for bankruptcy in the middle of an economic downturn and there is a shortage of credit. This is the ideal time to buy because this cycle, from start to finish, doesn't usually last more than 3 years. So after about 5 years you refinance the property when the value of the property returns to normal.

People in my industry take a loan out against our annuity during this cycle and that way we defer paying taxes for several years and we get a great interest rate since the loan is backed by a security.

The bankruptcy business model is something construction workers are aware of and plan around. This is also the best time to start a business for construction workers because of banks selling off equipment. I almost bought an excavator in 2010 because the bank was selling $120,000 machine for $7,000. I feel like an ***** for not because I could have waited a few years and sold it for 70-80,000.

 

[mistyrain]

Well that would be true if most new housing was built using debt. Unlike a mortgage, most developers finance these projects on a 5 year period. The idea is that it takes about a year to build it and then they have around 4 years to sell it. Typically it takes less than a year to sell a home from completion. However, we have a 2 fold problem in the US. People don't want to get a new loan with today's high interest rates but the bigger issue is that many people can't afford a home. Median home price has doubled since Covid but wages haven't kept up.

The thing is, homes are staying on the market for longer and the banks funding new construction are going to want their peice of the pie. Now, this sounds like it a simple problem to fix but the contractors who have built the homes have already taken their profit. Most general contractors subcontract nearly everything out to other contractors. The general contractor takes profit but shields itself with a corporation or LLC. The business model is generally, "bleed the company dry and pay yourself as an employee." Then, when bad times hit, the company files for bankruptcy but since the ower was paying himself as an employee he keeps all the money. The bank issuing the loan then seizes all the "company's" assets and sells them off. The general contractor then starts a new company. The owner of the previous company has no problem getting credit under the new company because he was completely shielded by his old company. the funny thing is that the owner of the new company usually buys their old equipment back at a discount when their previous companies assets are sold off. This happens about every 10 years but I know general contractors who have done this several times in my 20 year career in commercial construction.

Believe it or not, we are right at the start of this next cycle. Noone in the construction industry is buying houses right now because we all know the market is about to be flooded with cheap houses. The first sell off is going to be from the banks selling off unsold homes from companies filling for bankruptcy but then followed by a secondwave caused by individuals defaulting on their mortgages by being laid off.

There is then a third wave caused by banks filling for bankruptcy in the middle of an economic downturn and there is a shortage of credit. This is the ideal time to buy because this cycle, from start to finish, doesn't usually last more than 3 years. So after about 5 years you refinance the property when the value of the property returns to normal.

People in my industry take a loan out against our annuity during this cycle and that way we defer paying taxes for several years and we get a great interest rate since the loan is backed by a security.

The bankruptcy business model is something construction workers are aware of and plan around. This is also the best time to start a business for construction workers because of banks selling off equipment. I almost bought an excavator in 2010 because the bank was selling $120,000 machine for $7,000. I feel like an ***** for not because I could have waited a few years and sold it for 70-80,000.

Dude....you know your sh*t very good analysis. Ahhh, you should have bought the excavator ...but it is always easy to say this after the events. So, we started from chips, went to property so, the logical question is - will this again bring a downturn for the stock market? We know what happnened last time. It looks like a clash of the titans - dropping housing market against rapid increase in chips demand. So will the tech stocks go up based on this demand and huge profits or the gousing market will scare people away and the stocks will drop ( leading to more scare). ( I expect the techspot admin to move us in the investments forum )

 

[yRaz]

Dude....you know your sh*t very good analysis. Ahhh, you should have bought the excavator ...but it is always easy to say this after the events. So, we started from chips, went to property so, the logical question is - will this again bring a downturn for the stock market? We know what happnened last time. It looks like a clash of the titans - dropping housing market against rapid increase in chips demand. So will the tech stocks go up based on this demand and huge profits or the gousing market will scare people away and the stocks will drop ( leading to more scare). ( I expect the techspot admin to move us in the investments forum )

I think AI is going to completely how tech stocks function. first we have to understand that the price of a stock has almost nothing to do with the value of the assets of the company. That said, AI and the chips that power it are going to be incredibly valuable in a tight economy. I predict that if a company can replace an employee that costs them 100k a year with an H100 for a one time payment of $30,000, they will. I see many white collar jobs being replaced as AI improves. Those companies that develop AI or sell the chips to power it will remain profitable and their stock prices stable in an economic downturn.

I think blue-collar jobs are safe from AI but I don't like the long term outlook on real-estate which is tied to blue collar jobs. We will see companies downsize because of AI. Companies downsizing will reduce the amount of new construction of Office buildings. I'm already starting to see this, of all the projects I worked on in 2023, only 2 were office buildings. Most of what I worked on were apartment buildings, parking garages and large floors for soon to be manufacturing. There is a major increase in demand for manufacturing. If anyone wants a job recommendation, become a machinist. It's absolutely insane how many projects I worked on this year that are CNC manufacturing centers.

There are robots that have the dexterity to replace my job but they are still exborbantly expensive. I have a feeling ill be retired by the time the drip to practical levels. Although, we have more people retiring than coming. In my trade we had 30 people in my town retire this year but only had 8 apprentices replace them. We also got a 20% raise across the board for 2024 as there is a major labor shortage. We usually get an inflation adjusted wage increase every year but there is such a shortage in commercial construction that we are trying to attract people to the industry with higher wages. I'm not sure how it's going to work out because the labor shortage causes us to work LOTS of overtime so idk if we're just going to be working tons of overtime at higher wages. I won't complain about that, but it is a thing.

I will be moving to Arizona soon as there is so much working going on out there because of the CHIPS act. US government is pretty much footing the bill for all the tech companies expansion plans so I'd saying all of them are safe bets

 

[mistyrain]

I think AI is going to completely how tech stocks function. first we have to understand that the price of a stock has almost nothing to do with the value of the assets of the company. That said, AI and the chips that power it are going to be incredibly valuable in a tight economy. I predict that if a company can replace an employee that costs them 100k a year with an H100 for a one time payment of $30,000, they will. I see many white collar jobs being replaced as AI improves. Those companies that develop AI or sell the chips to power it will remain profitable and their stock prices stable in an economic downturn.

I think blue-collar jobs are safe from AI but I don't like the long term outlook on real-estate which is tied to blue collar jobs. We will see companies downsize because of AI. Companies downsizing will reduce the amount of new construction of Office buildings. I'm already starting to see this, of all the projects I worked on in 2023, only 2 were office buildings. Most of what I worked on were apartment buildings, parking garages and large floors for soon to be manufacturing. There is a major increase in demand for manufacturing. If anyone wants a job recommendation, become a machinist. It's absolutely insane how many projects I worked on this year that are CNC manufacturing centers.

There are robots that have the dexterity to replace my job but they are still exborbantly expensive. I have a feeling ill be retired by the time the drip to practical levels. Although, we have more people retiring than coming. In my trade we had 30 people in my town retire this year but only had 8 apprentices replace them. We also got a 20% raise across the board for 2024 as there is a major labor shortage. We usually get an inflation adjusted wage increase every year but there is such a shortage in commercial construction that we are trying to attract people to the industry with higher wages. I'm not sure how it's going to work out because the labor shortage causes us to work LOTS of overtime so idk if we're just going to be working tons of overtime at higher wages. I won't complain about that, but it is a thing.

I will be moving to Arizona soon as there is so much working going on out there because of the CHIPS act. US government is pretty much footing the bill for all the tech companies expansion plans so I'd saying all of them are safe bets

I fully agree. Just would like to add to the equasion that the lack of office buildings is not only due to AI but also due to the big home-office which is becomming a stnadard and part of the offices are not needed. Good luck in Arizona.