In 2015: Android first, Windows Phone second, iPhone third

By on March 29, 2011, 11:04 AM
Smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Furthermore, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market: 49.2 percent in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones, according to International Data Corporation (IDC).

Last year, Android took second place in 2010. This year, it will take the crown (which is not too shocking) and will steadily continue to grow share into 2015. Vendors who bet on Android as the mobile OS that would push their smartphone strategies saw great results last year, but the next few years look even more promising.

What may be a bit more surprising is the expectations IDC has for the Nokia-Microsoft deal. Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share. The new alliance, however, will result in Windows Phone taking second place by 2015. Meanwhile, as Symbian is phased out, it will quickly fall into last place.

Where does that leave the rest of the market in 2015? IDC believes iOS will be in third and BlackBerry will be in fourth. It does not even mention HP's webOS.

"Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Last year's high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010."




User Comments: 61

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Guest said:

what are you smoking?

nismo91 said:

predicting what exactly will be happen in the next 4 years are ridiculous.

MilwaukeeMike said:

Predicting isn't ridiculous ('is', not 'are' . However, it would be ridiculous If you went out and made some large investing decisions based on it.

Guest said:

Not surprising for Microsoft since you can't get their phone on Verizon. Why do these manufactures insist on being carrier exclusive and wonder why they can't grow their market share. Most businesses are on Verizon and would seriously consider the Windows 7 phone over blackberry but since it's not available they will go with something else or stay with blackberry and be locked into that when Microsoft finally decides to come to Verizon. Apple Iphone just experienced the same thing on Verizon.I just don't understand this.

gwailo247, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

Why is it ridiculous to think that a company that has dominated 90% of the computer market will come to dominate the smartphone market? So they had a few failures, but probably from a lack of focus and direction rather than inability to create something.

This is the problem when 15 year old children post, because while they may be smart, they have no perspective. Three years does not a lifetime make.

I remember recently reading a post by some ***** who said that Sony never contributed anything meaningful to the personal audio market, and that Apple was the one who brought portable electronics into the mainstream. When I brought up the Walkman, he really didn't have any idea what I was talking about.

The iPhone has been out for a few years, in fact smart phones in general have been out for a few years. Lets think back to the 80s. You had many operating systems running around, you had many hardware manufacturers, and then in the 90s it pretty much shrank just to Windows, with a smattering of OSX (or whatever it was called back then), and even smaller smattering of Linux.

So now that we're in that nascent era of smart phone, its easy to say that Apple is the dominant player, or that Android will take over everything, but as with everything else, once the novelty wears off, the market will stabilize itself as it has with just about everything else.

As long as Windows owns such a huge market share, they can keep trying, but by all accounts their current product is very well made, and is suffering more from marketing issues than technology issues.

So if they deliver the promised Windows 8 integration with Windows smartphones and tablets, I think they will have a huge hit on their hands. Or they'll fail...

Vrmithrax Vrmithrax, TechSpot Paladin, said:

Guest said:

Not surprising for Microsoft since you can't get their phone on Verizon. Why do these manufactures insist on being carrier exclusive and wonder why they can't grow their market share. Most businesses are on Verizon and would seriously consider the Windows 7 phone over blackberry but since it's not available they will go with something else or stay with blackberry and be locked into that when Microsoft finally decides to come to Verizon. Apple Iphone just experienced the same thing on Verizon.I just don't understand this.

From what I understood in previous stories regarding Verizon and Windows Phone, it was Verizon that chose not to jump in, not Microsoft trying to pull an exclusivity stunt. Verizon (and industry insiders) have been saying since late in 2010 that they would have WinPhones available sometime in 2011, with most indicators being late Q1 or Q2. Based on that feedback, plus a consideration of global markets, Microsoft chose to launch with GSM-only network compatibility first. CDMA came later, but has been finished for some time now. It's just up to Verizon to decide they want to sell another platform. They have been fairly busy pushing their (finally available) iPhone, high end Android units like the Thunderbolt, and 4G network launch.

treeski treeski said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft gained significantly in market share over the next four years, as I think their first generation WP is a great product and has serious potential. On the hand, I simply wouldn't be surprised if it didn't. There are so many smartphone players on the market right now (Microsoft, Google, Apple, BlackBerry, HP, etc), who knows what things will look like.

mosu said:

It might work for US & Canada, but for Europe it's a sure bet because Nokia has a stronghold here and WP7 or next type of WP will gain significant traction. Of course, this is only my opinion and I believe the key factor is how large the app pool is and how the carriers will subsidize different brands and models of smartphones.

MilwaukeeMike said:

Yes, Nokia has a stronghold, but Nokia has announced that it's going to drop Symbian and use WP7. This is where the large prediction comes for Microsoft comes from. Checkout the story on Informationweek.com

[link]

treeski treeski said:

mosu said:

It might work for US & Canada, but for Europe it's a sure bet because Nokia has a stronghold here and WP7 or next type of WP will gain significant traction. Of course, this is only my opinion and I believe the key factor is how large the app pool is and how the carriers will subsidize different brands and models of smartphones.

I agree that the size of the app pool is definitely important, but I'd argue that it's more a case of quality versus quantity. The key is having the top apps from other mobile OSes available for WP. People who consider switching smart phones are going to ask, "can get I get the same apps that I love on my other phone?".

Also taking into account the expanding market share, people who are buying smart phones for the first time are probably less concerned about (perhaps less educated about or familiar with) app availability.

Guest said:

You are right..they hve no clue wat they are sayin....

Guest said:

What are you DRINKING?

Windows Phone 7 does not even have a chance of EXISTING in 2015 -- Microsoft have basically given up on it internally already but are just keeping up a brave public face (too many big flops in a row already -- thank God for Kinnect). Nokia will take until next year to realize what a blunder they've made when they learn their wait for the next major versions is .... FOREVER.

TONS of GREAT APPS + EXCELLENT OS EASE OF USE + EASY SYNC, BACKUP & APP/CONTENT PURCHASE SYSTEM + SLICK STYLE = HUGE SUCCESS

Apple -- YES

Android -- Soon

WP7, RIM/QNX, HP WebOS -- NO

And no amount of marketing bullshit or money OR hardware specs overkill with change that equation.

End of story. Film at eleven

Guest said:

How do you spell Zune? F-A-I-L-U-R-E

MS exists only from revenues from Windows and it's enterprise system for business. It has utterly failed in almost all other ventures. Other than the aforementioned Windows & the enterprise system for Windows, first place is a pipe dream for MS much less second place with the exception of the X-Box.

Guest said:

Windows Phone will never grow that far... what are you are smoking my friend????

Guest said:

In my view by 2015 we will have an iPhone 8, and it will be invisible...

Guest said:

This may only true because Microsoft is going to buy RIM in Q4 of 2011.

Guest said:

Sorry, but I learned to vehemetly distrust people who claim they have the capability of knowing what will happen in the future... what colour is your crystal ball?

Guest said:

Microsoft, pathetic 21st century wannabee in the smart phone sweepstakes, as in Zune, Surface, BOB previously, is doomed. Bill Gates exited upon reading the tea leaves and Ballmer is a complete and utter **** of a CEO with zero vision. Android may dominate, tho with its open OS invites worms, virii, dysfunction similar to Windoze swiss-cheese security. Apple has its closed system architecture which limits some variables, but preserves usability and has a ton of developers along with a mature iOS that is spanking Android's promise of HONEYCOMB, delayed til later in 2011. Smartphone smartbuyer have many choices. The smartest, who place a premium on value rather than cheapness, will rally around the iPhone, folks. GOOG makes no margin giving away its multi-flavored, spectrally varied, and beta-based OS. Users of Android, adopt at your own peril.

Guest said:

in 2015..hmmm i predict apple will not be doing as great if their premier pitch man isnt around. who is going to mesmerize and hypnotize the lemmings into buying more iphones....

Guest said:

This is a non-story. In 2015, Android = Hyundai, Windows Phone = Toyota, and iPhone = Porsche. Of course Apple will sell less, they're more expensive. Pretty simple economics. And the guest who said "who is going to mesmerize and hypnotize the lemmings into buying more iphones ..." is an *****. Apple is and always will be the industry leader in terms of innovation. The wannabes, including Google, just watch Apple's every move and then swipe their ideas. Android is a copy-and-paste rip off of the iPhone.

Guest said:

Seriously?? Microsoft hasn't done anything truly innovative since Windows 95 and NT. Everything since has been just polish.

Guest said:

hahahahahhahahhahaha (cough) ooops choked a little.

I must be missing something I see the apple logo everywhere.

Guest said:

Apple stopped innovating after the first iphone release. Android has leapfrogged them and apple is not going to catch up. Apple will continue to sell overpriced-underpowered phones just like they do with computers; to the few people who need a pre-school UI design.

MACs have < 5% of the computer market; iphone is heading to that; probably sooner than 2015.

Guest said:

More Apple hate... how boring /yawn

Guest said:

I agree. Are you a 15 yo, BTW?

You see this subject requires a little more analysis than, "Why is it ridiculous to think that a company that has dominated 90% of the computer market will come to dominate the smartphone market?" I'm sure you meant that as rhetorical. But, it's a good question. It is not ridiculous, however neither is it ridiculous that they could fail completely. In fact, it is much more likely they will fail in achieving significant market share than it is they will dominate. One only has to look at the dynamics that got them to 90% share of PC's and see that those dynamics do not apply here. To the contrary, MS is in serious danger of stagnating. Growth has moved to mobile, so PC OS profits will be squeezed. People are moving applications to the cloud, so office suite applications profits will be squeezed and there's plenty of competition in the server room too. Furthermore, MS has shown a distinct lack of vision and have failed miserably in markets where they can't leverage their existing monopoly.

"As long as Windows owns such a huge market share, they can keep trying, but by all accounts their current product is very well made, and is suffering more from marketing issues than technology issues." No, not really. WP7 is way behind the curve in stability and features and way behind in mindshare. Witness the latest update fiascos as well as the challenges in achieving the sort of stability people expect in appliances while being retargeted to a variety of HW platforms from a wide variety of manufacturers. Nobody is going to settle for the sort of reliability people despise in Windows. In fact, it's quite amazing that they would choose to brand their phone effort as "Windows", which is pretty synonymous in consumer's minds with unreliability, unsecure, and a general PITA to maintain. People are fleeing Windows as fast as they can. MS is surviving on inertia, but that won't last forever.

Of course, all of that doesn't mean that that they can't be successful, but it is completely preposterous to suggest that they will achieve a dominant position in 4 years, as 1) predicting that far out is simply ridiculous 2) MS has not shown recently that they have what it takes to compete in a market in which they can't already leverage their monopoly position in desktop OS' and office suites.

Probably their best chance is, assuming the Nokia partnership works well, is to buy Nokia outright and become an integrated vendor like Apple, HP, and RIM.

Guest said:

Microsoft windows 8 will have app feature built in and will scale with cell phones, laptops, etc.

I don't think they knew that little piece of data but having a app on both my PC at home that communicated with my phones apps would be very enticing for many reasons.

Good speculation in my opinion. 4 years is a long time in consumer electronics.

Guest said:

Apple most definitely in 3rd...at best. They better keep stealing HTC and Nokia technology to stay in business. Crapple is for morons who drink the koolaid.

Guest said:

Thats funny, because last time I checked, Toyota and Hyundai had more car on the road then Porsche. Shrinking market share will drive devs away from your "Porsche" and straight to the "Toyota" and "Hyundai" camp., Thus making more people choose "Toyota" and "Hyundai", After that it becomes and vicious spiral to obscurity.

Guest said:

Even more preposterous than trying to predict OS's 4 years out...

Who cares which OS outsells the others? People buy phones, not OS's. Why down you predict who'll sell the most resistors, or ear buds? Why dwell on the OS? It's just a single component.

And we all know which phone company will sell the most smart phones. The rest is just bits and pieces.

Guest said:

Apple sells phones. Android is software.

Care to guess who sells more cell phones, Apple or Google?

Guest said:

Apple Sucks!!! All you people who think it's so great are brainwashed

Guest said:

This "Andriod outsells" story pops up every couple of weeks. It's just a Google BJ.

Who sells more computers Apple or Microsoft?

Who sells more operating systems Apple or Microsoft?

Who sells more cars Ford or Firestone? Tires?

Guest said:

"640K should be enough for anyone"

My money is on Android and Apple ruling the world.

Microsoft just needs to go away.

Guest said:

ahaha more apple fanboys.. gotta love them

*trollface*

Guest said:

In 2015 most smartphone customer will use apps to pay for grocery, bills, tickets.By this time, smartphone will have made creditcards, debitcads etc. obsolete. Smartphones will also allow consumers to store their id, their medical history, their insurance, their DNA, their SSC number etc. info. etc.. In 2015 the music and film industry will have the capability to monitor whether pirated material is being viewed on individual devices. Smartphones will also enable the government to remotely monitor what people are saying, typing and tweeting on their smartphones. For the first time in history, governments worldwide will have the possibility to stop crimes before their are happening, to prevent demonstrations before they are organized and to incarcerate political dissidents before they are able to type a critical thought. Imagine a world where terrorists attacks can be prevented years before they are executed. Of course, smartphones will be free and every citizen will be required to have one, post all their photos on mobile facebook (indecent prints will be outlawed). Smartphone users will be required to submit all their photos and videos. Of course, when they take a picture of the Statue of Liberty they will be required to pay a fee (how else can the State of New York pay for the upkeep of the monument).

I am really looking forward to this bright smartphone future

Guest said:

As a Solutions Architect for a major company and well versed in Microsoft products, I believe that many people do not get it that MS market share, expertise and revenue to finance mainly failed ventures come from Windows and Office franchise. Yes, I know that some products like X-Box have been doing well lately, but there are number of products Microsoft introduce that go nowhere. Mobility is one of them.

I believe that IDC folks do not know what they are talking about. It is simply impossible to predict how the landscape will be in 4 years from now. IDC has based its prediction based on Nokia market share. But what IDC fails to understand is that many other Microsoft partners abandoned partnership with MS once they realized the sinking ship they were in.

In my opinion we have 80% chances to see adoption for Nokia go down even further in the next one year. Then at that time, Android and iPhone may have already even stronger ecosystem and it should be even more challenging for Nokia to sell its Windows 7 phones successfully.I believe it gain a certain market share, but gaining the second spot seems a hard one to believe.

Guest said:

WP7 mobile was a failure. WP7 cloned the iPhone with it's locking on app developments and requiring a Live account to use the phone. In addition, it took away the ability for users to sync with Outlook stand-alone and require Zune (like iTune) to sync music. It took away a lot of "user choice" to replicate iPhone. MS crowds are a lot different than iPhone crowds. To have MS WP7 to leap frog iPhone is like MS failure at the tablet. It's a little too late for MS to catch up.

Guest said:

To < Zune / Kin / PC Tablets / Internet Explorer 8 / Windows Vista > add Windows 7 Mobile.

Guest said:

I think what people are failing to realize is vision in depth analysis when making these assumptions. If I'm not mistaking the post was about market share not who is better.

So with that being said I want to address what someone was saying about the toyota and hyndai (Spellcheck) and Porche. He said that if Apple is Porche then dev's will leave and go to android and others because they have the larger market share. That is incorrect. Android right now has a larger market share but it is proven that Android users are free-babies. They don't pay for sh!t and want everything free. Apple with IOS has developed users that are unique in the sense they pay for their apps and thus gives dev's more return on their Investment (ROI)... Soooo once again, Dev's are going where? Nowhere! They know where the money is. IOS is setup perfectly with services that are low cost and high quality which gives users the want to pay for something that is worth the quality to be at a reasonable price unlike a crippled android OS that is very buggy unrelaible. You buy in at version 2.2 and you are forgotten about and the next hardware that samsung sells will have 2.6 or what ever. The Hardware manufacture is sales driven off hardware so they have no incentive to maintaining your device and Google has not incentive because they are giving the android OS away for free to begin with and users are not their customers, advertisers are where they get their money from. So there main focus is flooding the market with as much Android OS products as possible to sell their ads to big companies that want to reach an enormous size of people to market to.

So Apple won't be going anywhere soon.

SN: Sorry for the mispelling and punctuation errors.

Guest said:

lol , awesome.

bonniesmith bonniesmith said:

IMO this is logical I see ANdroid #1 and iPhone last

Guest said:

Microsoft??? I thought their Phone7 sales were sluggish, which was expected, because the WP7 OS is complete crap. This article is a paid advertisement from Microsoft!!! Don't believe anything they say.

nhirsch said:

I don't know why they so favor Windows phone after so many missteps (with exception of Windows 7). I wonder if they picked Betamax over VHS or 8 track over cassette or PS/2 architecture over PCI, or OS/2 over NT.

Keep in mind things like:

[link]

http://wilk4.com/humor/humore10.htm

and others.

Guest said:

Apple Fan Boy!

Guest said:

All the mac haters are at it again... time and time again they are being counted out yet always seem to push innovation... I will be laughing 4 years from now when an article states how windows phone was yet another flop by microsoft

Guest said:

Making predictions is good for a few ad impressions but otherwise just silly. Here's a few I've seen over the years for your next "where are they now?" article.

"Linux is fast becoming a viable Windows challenger"

Windows' reach assures that IE will dominate browser market share

"A phone without a keypad is limited to a niche audience"

Guest said:

android will dominate the market forsure and whoever thinks they wont is a pure dummmy because apple doesnt share there own operating system like google does..80 percent of every smartphone that comes out is google android operated..and once when those new android 3d phones that dont require 3d glasses come out later this year apple is gonna get smashed by google...to be honest i dont see why apple has becomed so sucsessful in the smartphone market the media hypes them up to much

Guest said:

Actually smart phones were out since at least 1997. I had a palm phone made by sprint running palm os back then.

Guest said:

Edit, my palm phone was made by samsung, not sprint, sprint was the exclusive carrier.

Guest said:

Apple is not sleeping you know (unlike MS)?

http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/apples_sells_out_wwdc
2011_on_first_day/?utm_campaign=feature

So my bet would be:

1. Apple with all sorts of users - cause it's so easy to use and you have everything you need! Plus the the new iOS and the cloud base storage.

2. Android with some techie users who want to experiment - a bit limited market share i guess. But can still can dominate the market as anyone (manufacturers) can use android OS.

3. Blackberry - focusing mainly on Enterprise.

4. Windows - already out of touch with the mobile market but still has potential.

This is my opinion. :)

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