I just had a though.

The PC XT came out when? 15 years ago? Just look at how technology has moved since then!

Now, if we all (on this site) networked our computers in a distributed computing kind of way, thus combining our power for any given task, how do you think our network would compare in power/ability to the standard PC of 2019? less than, equal to, or more than?

just as a guess like.

Probably unbelievable to us right now. Just look at the past 100 years in terms of technological advancement. First-world today compared to first-world of a century ago is like comparing a towering skyscraper and an anthill.

I imagine by then that most homes will have centralized computers controlling everything, as well as the "computer" as we know it being pretty much gone... replaced by hybrid machines that serve for all electronic entertainment.

I also think technologies like biocomputing will become more prevelant, i.e. using bacteria or other living organisms / living tissue to do calculations, although they will not be mainstream.

There is a very scary aspect to all of this, however.

What is that aspect?

It's best summed up like this:

"I do not know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

I dont believe that technology as a whole will move on that far, Gadgets will be better and costs will come down but I dont believe much of what is written.

Maybe we will be able to make clean water for everyone as well.

As a kid my mother told us that when we were grown up all houses would have windscreen wipers on all the windows. What happened then?

I remember seeing an article about future computing in PcFormat '97/'98 (man has it been that long! :eek: ) which talked about how the computer would become an integrated part of our houses in the not too far future (around 2010)...

But I'm no longer sure if that'll be the case... We've seen MS & CO trying to create devices which would work that way, and it just doesn't work... And neither has the fridges which would read the barcode of the products we'd have bought and call the shop when we need more..

So my guess would be that instead of having one big "super computer" running everything, we'll instead see small computers in most of the devices in our houses with a wireless network between them, sharing computing power and integrating themselves further into our daily life... But I still think that day is far ahead...!


As for how much faster our computers will become...
I doubt we'll be seeing the tech evolution going as quicky as it has so far... Yes, we've not yet reached the end of Moore's Law, but we will meet it soon...
It becomes harder and harder to create smaller cpu's/gpu's, and we'll come to a place where the cost outweighs the result...

So unless there comes along another way to make computers (quantum anyone), I think we'll see a slowdown in new faster c/gpu's created the way they are today until it'll come to an allmost standstill..
But somewhere along that way chances are we'll see another way to develop the tech which doesn't require smaller and smaller gates/traces, but still grants improvements...

Maybe it'll be like it was between the 8086, 286 and 386 with several years between each new cpu... At least that would allow the software developers to catch up with the tech instead of lagging several years behind as they do today...

Oh, well enough ranting for today

Intel estimates that they will be able to create CPU's at a speed of 30GHz before they reach the ultimate limitation of the x86 architecture. Just a little info there.

We'll just have 100Ghz computers and we'll all be using the Raptor 9800 Pro 1GB and playing Unreal Tournament 5000 and Half-Life 5: Beyond the Combine.

I'm sure there will be great advancements.. Even in the near future... But almost everything has an S-curve of progression.

There's going to be a day when technological achievement is NOT exponential and there's going to be a time when we do reach our limits. Perhaps even then we will continue to advance technologically, but even humankind can only exploit so much of the Universe.

While I doubt the next decade or two is going to level off mankind's ingenuity, you never know....

But, I am betting that by 2020, there is going to be a major change with computers as we know it. Changes are obvious, but I mean perhaps a different way of computing.. Simliar to how the GUI changed human interfacing or how computers barely able to compute mathematics are now splicing genes and simulating chemical reactions.

Perhaps it will be a technology that increases speed thousands of times, or computers so small that they will fit in your pocket. Maybe computers will become artificially intelligent or we will interface with them in a new way (thought, new motions...) etc.. Or maybe even "living computers" will exist made from living cells instead of circuits.

The one thing we need to keep in mind is that we are gaining ground at such an exponential rate, thet we are bound to level off eventually for a period of time, and the cycle will begin all over again...kinda like processor speeds outgaining bus speeds by however many times over etc...

Hey soul harvester, i believe Eienstien said that after he put forth the formuals for the atom bomb, and using living tissue for calculate things would be crazy. Well it wont be long before micro technology is replaced with nano technology and in place of AMD we have AND. People are starting to enquire into building pcs with an autonical (dont know how its spelt) structure (bit like Arsenal from MGS2) But my bro is in finanice and he said the I.T bubble has burst so i think there will be a bit of a slow down in i.T or at least desktop I.T. But eventually if we have computers doing everything for us (shopping ect) its obviously going to be detrimental to us eg we will all be exceptionally fat.

You lot really were optomistic. "chrikes". Just look at the plans for the play station 3. The processor of the cell alone will be over 1 terabyte. 10 gigabyes my the year 2010.
Moores Law if you think about it is a joke.
IBM has been making the main super computers for years. So they will push AMD and intel into up-ing the antic and moving away quicker with multi core techolgies. Intel are planning 2 cores in there chip which they havent even realised a date for yet.
AMD hav done slightly better.
But IBM are planning 16 cores on the new cluster chip code named "the cell" which will be in the play station in 2006.
2006 will be the year that AMD and Intel will HAVE TO follow suite. I think PCs will always be a little behind consules now.
But if PS3 are using blue ray and the cell and XBOX are plannning something better, I cant imagine what that is.
What a move on from now within 2 years. You sceptical people. You have no idea. The question is being commercial avaiblable. IBM will be the first to mkae stuff happen I think.
Tom

speaking about where technology is going, i saw this on theregister.co.uk, Rat brain flies jet

The whole talk about technology in houses is getting a bit boring. Everyone says it just doesn't work, but actually people just aren't ready for it yet. They want to controll things themselves, you cant expect people to directly adapt to things and use it straight away. Technology grows (sometimes slowly, but it grows), and integration is the most important thing which also takes the most time of the whole technology growth thing.

A few technologies which are now almost new standards are:
- Optical mouses (imagine using a ball now, thats just sooo 1998...)
- TFT Monitors (a CRT monitor at work? no way)
- DVD Burners (cheaper and cheaper, you can get one now for €80,-)
- Digital Camera (Imagine going to the photostore, just open photoshop!)

WiFi is coming up as a "new" technology, its getting more and more mainstream as people now see the use of it when they buy a new laptop or computer. Stay connected seems the new slogan of technology these days and it will only be more and more connected in the next decade. Not that we will get chips in our heads as telephones, hardware will always keep existing as we like to see the things we work with.

I think in 10 years my house will be full of digital stuff (surround sets, television, telephone, one computer controlling it all) which all will be connected through Wireless networks. (One thing which still bothers me, does this wireless stuff give any problems like radiation?)...