BlackBerry Z10 sales estimates slashed by 83 percent

[Shawn Knight]

News that BlackBerry’s new Z10 handset had set sales records in Canada and the UK gave most the impression that the company had perhaps found the path back to prosperity. Those hopes, however, are rapidly falling to the wayside as at least one analyst has slashes sales estimates by a massive 83 percent.

Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley said the Canadian handset maker was originally estimated to sell around 1.75 million BlackBerry Z10 smartphones during the February quarter. Up to this point, the company has only managed to move 300,000 handsets in Canada and the UK. The reason for the disparity is supply issues, not overwhelming demand, he said.

Walkley further noted that follow-up checks have indicated steady but modest sales levels. He said that with BlackBerry 10 smartphones launching in the US by mid-March at the earliest at subsidies similar to Apple and Samsung handsets combined with the belief that the Galaxy S IV will launch in the same time frame, they had no choice but to lower sales estimates for the February quarter and the rest of 2013.

He said the BlackBerry Z10 will be a T-Mobile exclusive when it first launches and that the Q10 will only be coming to Sprint. As such, the firm anticipated that carriers will not stock large quantities of BlackBerry 10 handsets given the weaker demand. They expect the device to face increased pressure from the competition such as the aforementioned Galaxy S IV and possibly a new iPhone later this year.

Permalink to story.

https://www.techspot.com/news/51704-blackberry-z10-sales-estimates-slashed-by-83-percent.html

 

[Ranger1st]

Or it could be that a new user can't actual get to know the product and move around it, it's in a demo mode that does NOTHING. I've known quite a few long time BB owners and they were all ready to get the new phone until they found it was locked down like a PS3 in a video game store.. 'front page demo mode only.' Most went to a windows 8 or jellybean phone.. none have bothered with the BB.. the kiosk based SNAFU on BB's part killed any faith they had left in the product.

 

[Guest]

Exactly, I went to futureshop yesterday with 2 of my friends and we went straight to the new blackberry to try it out and wtf was that? demo mode.. you can't get a feel for the phone in that mode...

 

[Skidmarksdeluxe]

I wonder if they are destined to fade into obscurity.

 

[m4a4]

I went to 2 different kiosks and 1 actually had the BB working properly, so I got to play around with it (like the bezel stuff still).
So I guess these people are just shooting themselves in the foot for demoing anything less than the full OS...

 

[Guest]

@ Ranger1st:
The PS3 is the #1 leading gaming console worldwide over the X-Box... So reconsider the analogy u used there, if I read u correctly.

 

[Lurker101]

@ Ranger1st:
The PS3 is the #1 leading gaming console worldwide over the X-Box... So reconsider the analogy u used there, if I read u correctly.

The last I checked, fanboy, the Xbox 360 is currently the best selling console worldwide. Has been for quite some time. Also, Ranger1sts comparison was to the way in a store, the PS3 is almost always in demo mode and so you can't really do much with it.

Finally, would two extra letters really hurt? The last I checked, the word YOU were looking for was YOU and not u.

 

[lawfer]

@ Ranger1st:
The PS3 is the #1 leading gaming console worldwide over the X-Box... So reconsider the analogy u used there, if I read u correctly.

The last I checked, fanboy, the Xbox 360 is currently the best selling console worldwide. Has been for quite some time. Also, Ranger1sts comparison was to the way in a store, the PS3 is almost always in demo mode and so you can't really do much with it.

Finally, would two extra letters really hurt? The last I checked, the word YOU were looking for was YOU and not u.

I don't really care for the discussion at hand, but just wanted to point out he's both wrong and right. The Wii has sold more worldwide than both consoles. However, the PS3 is #2 in sales, while the Xbox on #3.

 

[Timonius]

I think what is really hurting at this point in the 'game' is exclusivity. While it's nice to make such deals and be the only carrier that has the new Z10, it really shoots themselves in the foot. Aside from supply issues giving a potentially false sense of demand, wouldn't you want your 'holy grail' product in as many places as possible and available to as many carriers as possible? Personally there are certain products (not necessarily in the smartphone arena) that I would love to buy, but because of exclusivity I will never get my hands on it due to circumstance and choice.

 

[MilwaukeeMike]

@ Ranger1st:
The PS3 is the #1 leading gaming console worldwide over the X-Box... So reconsider the analogy u used there, if I read u correctly.

The last I checked, fanboy, the Xbox 360 is currently the best selling console worldwide. Has been for quite some time. Also, Ranger1sts comparison was to the way in a store, the PS3 is almost always in demo mode and so you can't really do much with it.

Finally, would two extra letters really hurt? The last I checked, the word YOU were looking for was YOU and not u.

I don't really care for the discussion at hand, but just wanted to point out he's both wrong and right. The Wii has sold more worldwide than both consoles. However, the PS3 is #2 in sales, while the Xbox on #3.

I'd love to jump right in here and keep this going, but I think we're all out of consoles. Bummer.

 

[Tygerstrike]

RIM finally gave the consumer what they wanted. A Blackberry style OS on a Large screen smartphone. As for it being in Demo mode, guys really? Yes it is in Demo mode, because if they didnt some smartass would grab it and run off with it thinking they got a new phone. If its in Demo mode, without the code to unlock it, it is basically a fancy paperweight. I swear ppl get all butthurt over the stupidest of reasons. Try thinking of more then your little world. Try and be happy that they even had a BB10 to Demo at all. Most ppl only ever get to see some plastic mock phone. It may have the same look and feel, but it is a lump of plastic.

 

[Skidmarksdeluxe]

I'd love to jump right in here and keep this going, but I think we're all out of consoles. Bummer.

Yeah. To the best of my knowledge the Blackberry Z10 wasn't supposed to be a game console. Maybe sales were so bad Blackberry decided to convert it in order to make some dough but I haven't heard anything.

 

[m4a4]

RIM finally gave the consumer what they wanted. A Blackberry style OS on a Large screen smartphone. As for it being in Demo mode, guys really? Yes it is in Demo mode, because if they didnt some smartass would grab it and run off with it thinking they got a new phone. If its in Demo mode, without the code to unlock it, it is basically a fancy paperweight. I swear ppl get all butthurt over the stupidest of reasons. Try thinking of more then your little world. Try and be happy that they even had a BB10 to Demo at all. Most ppl only ever get to see some plastic mock phone. It may have the same look and feel, but it is a lump of plastic.

Last I checked, they glue such display devices to a security cord. So demo or not, your point is invalid

 

[Tanstar]

RIM finally gave the consumer what they wanted. A Blackberry style OS on a Large screen smartphone. As for it being in Demo mode, guys really? Yes it is in Demo mode, because if they didnt some smartass would grab it and run off with it thinking they got a new phone. If its in Demo mode, without the code to unlock it, it is basically a fancy paperweight. I swear ppl get all butthurt over the stupidest of reasons. Try thinking of more then your little world. Try and be happy that they even had a BB10 to Demo at all. Most ppl only ever get to see some plastic mock phone. It may have the same look and feel, but it is a lump of plastic.

What m4a4 said, and further, "the consumer . . . wanted . . . [a] Blackberry style OS on a Large screen smartphone" 5 years ago. Now they've all moved on.

 

[St1ckM4n]

Someone should make Phone OS. It's just a dialler. Nothing else.

The setup wizard will only ask for your FB details and phone number to auto-reply to everyone if they text you etc: "Please call me."

 

[Lionvibez]

Exactly, I went to futureshop yesterday with 2 of my friends and we went straight to the new blackberry to try it out and wtf was that? demo mode.. you can't get a feel for the phone in that mode...

I would suggest both you and the poster above you find a friend who has one.

I had my reservation with rogers and was in position 1800 Waste ot time. I cancelled that went to wireless wave who has them in stock, also some rogers videostore have them in stock. I picked it up and been using it for like 2 weeks now and really enjoy it.

The one thing to note is your need to do a proper charge cycle the first few days you get it and then battery life improves. I easily get through a full day on one charge.

It will also take a day or so to get use to the gestures. I use an Iphone 5 at work and I prefer the Z10 it only currently lacks in apps which are coming. I was already able to side load an andriod version of Google maps to the phone and it works great.

 

[nulll]

I'm a regular reader of Techspot and have been for about 3 years now, till now I have never felt the need to comment on any article I've seen here as the writing is always succinct and from what I've seen unbiased. In the case of this article I found myself somewhat put off though as the title gives the false impression that an over arching power (such as blackberry themselves) had put forth a change of view on the sales estimates.

Lets be clear here, there was one relatively small Canadian fund management firm that put out the specific estimate of an 83% downgrade. Canaccord Genuity is a Canadian based investment management and analytics firm that is in the 200M range for total holdings. They are downgrading their take on the stock without publishing whether or not they hold a position in Blackberry. They may be short and they may be long or they may not hold a position at all, but if they do hold an unpublished short position they stand to profit from a slide in the stock price triggered by a negative media spin such as this.

Other significantly larger fund management and analytics firms such as Citi group (formerly the worlds highest market capacity company and still one of the top 10 largest fund managers on earth) currently have Blackberry stock listed as "sector outperform" with a target price of $19.50. Bernstein research also has the stock listed as outperform with a price of $22.00 for the quarter.

In the end it is all a game of researched guess work till the first batch of sales numbers come out, I myself currently hold a long position in Blackberry of 1355 shares. As such I do quite a bit of daily reading of all the available news regarding blackberry as well as other companies I hold positions in as I make my living of my dividend portfolio that I bolster by capital gain profits from my technology, banking and mining sector stocks.

The stock market is driven by fear, greed and misinformation. Never get your view of any company from any one source as bad news generates more hits than a positive story and any number of small fund management firms are looking to cash in on the market spin of a company in a volatile market situation.

Scott R. Barnes

 

[Lurker101]

So basically, you've wasted a lot of money on Blackberry stocks and are terrified that an itty bitty article on the web is going to decimate their value, so you want Techspot to treat Blackberry with kid gloves until you dump those shares?

Is there any chance that Shawn Knight or Matthew DeCarlo could run a "Blackberry fails again" article on a bi-daily basis, just as an experiment?

 

[nulll]

Actually I bought my original position in Blackberry on October 6 @ $7.38CDN, considering the stock closed today at $14.13CDN I've as near as makes little difference had a 100% increase in my investment in less than 6 months. Considering my annual return via my dividend capture account is below 20% (though vastly more secure due to the nature of blue chip dividends) I'm rather comfortable with the returns I've seen via my investment.

What I would like to see is some journalistic transparency, considering my above citations regarding both Citigroup and Bernstein were from one of the first articles published regarding Canaccords opinions which can be found @ (http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/02/19/blackberry-ten-shipments.html)

You can't publish an article regarding a stock, its supposed market position or your views on it without citing other market sources. To do so undermines your credibility, if you're going to get into commentary regarding the stock market you need to know how the journalistic side of that industry is covered or your articles will simply be written off as a smear campaign. I simply found it odd to see a market skewed article on one of my frequented tech sites, and I was somewhat taken aback when I saw just how poorly researched that article was.

The CBC link I posted is literally in the top 5 hits on google right now and the info above regarding Canaccord Genuity is readily available on their corporate earnings listing via their website. I had previously read the CBC article (hence my original reaction to this article) and the Canaccord info was literally 30 seconds of typing and clicking away as all listed public companies are required to publish their earnings and liquidity.

Blackberry may fail again but considering the number of Canadians they employ and the quality of their devices I would rather not see it happen. In the interests of transparency, Blackberry currently comprises less than 5% of my portfolio as I tend to stick with blue chip dividend stocks due to their security.