Hard drive shipments continue to slide as SSDs gain momentum

[Shawn Knight]

Just when it seemed the hard drive market had fully recovered from the devastating floods that hit Thailand in 2011, the venerable storage media has another threat on its hand: competition from solid state drives. Shipments of PC hard drives are forecasted to decline by eight percent in 2013 from 475.4 million units to just 436.9 million according to market analyst IHS iSuppi.

SSD shipments, on the other hand, are expected to climb 122 percent during the same period, from 31.1 million units a year ago to 68.9 million units by the end of this year. HDD revenue is expected to hit $26.4 billion in 2013, down from last year’s record of $30.6 billion which was largely due to higher selling prices as a result of the aforementioned flooding.

What’s more, the decline versus growth will continue next year and in the years ahead, iSuppli notes.

The odds are stacked against the HDD industry as it is suffering the effects of a depressed market resulting from a weak global economy. Additionally, upgrades are not being made for desktop and notebook PCs while at the same time, replacement cycles are getting extended. To make matters worse, the industry is being cannibalized by mobile handsets and tablets – all of which utilize flash storage.

By 2017, iSuppi believes that PC SSD revenue will come close to that of the PC HDD market: $22.6 billion versus $23.5 billion, respectively. It’s worth pointing out that PC SSD revenue also includes the cache SSD segment which uses NAND flash alongside a traditional hard drive.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/52501-hard-drive-shipments-continue-to-slide-as-ssds-gain-momentum.html

 

[VitalyT]

In the meantime, the rumors of breakthroughs in HDD dissolve in time...

I remember 2-3 years ago talks of an HDD with square plates and huge speed improvements. Now I cannot find anything about them if I Google.

I remember stories of 60TB HDD-s to be on the market soon, ever since 2011. There is no sign of them anywhere still.

The bigger size of HDD, the less reliable it becomes, that's their achilles heel, plus the speed will always be limited. And SSD-s have none of those problems.

The latest tests of durability showed that Samsung 840 series can last for 80 years under normal use, and that they can last even much longer than advertised. And these numbers are getting only better with newer technology.

 

[Lurker101]

Oh no! HDD manufacturers might have to price their products more competitively to compete against the surging popularity of SSDs. Oh the humanity.

 

[LinkedKube]

They capitalized on that flood and now their profits are being swept away in the tide(yes I went there.)

 

[Jad Chaar]

VitalyT The 840 (non pro) doesnt last as long as the Pro. It will die within 5-10 years under normal-heavy use.

Lurker101 WD is gonna have to release a more cost effective hybrid or even an SSD line.

LinkedKube I agree lol. I was gonna say, that flood had a big influence on this probably.

I think enterprise storage will still be reliant on HDDs for the next 5-10 years because of the capacity. SSDs will begin to take HDDs over even at the enterprise level soon.

 

[p51d007]

Goodie!
Less expensive HDD's then.

 

[VitalyT]

VitalyT The 840 (non pro) doesnt last as long as the Pro. It will die within 5-10 years under normal-heavy use.

Where does this information come from? There were a few durability tests conducted on Samsung 840 that tell a different story. Here's one of them: http://www.anandtech.com/show/6459/samsung-ssd-840-testing-the-endurance-of-tlc-nand

In another test it was suggested that 256GB and 512GB versions of Samsung can last up to 70 years under normal use, but tests indicated that can last for over 80 years.

Here's an ongoing test: http://www.tweaktown.com/articles/5...-endurance-testing-tlc-to-the-end/index3.html

 

[Littleczr]

RAID 0 SSD 4TW!

 

[LinkedKube]

I think enterprise storage will still be reliant on HDDs for the next 5-10 years because of the capacity. SSDs will begin to take HDDs over even at the enterprise level soon.

I'm going to agree with you there. I own my original ssd's from 3 years ago but I only find myself buying more platter hdds for my collection

 

[Jad Chaar]

Where does this information come from? There were a few durability tests conducted on Samsung 840 that tell a different story. Here's one of them: http://www.anandtech.com/show/6459/samsung-ssd-840-testing-the-endurance-of-tlc-nand

In another test it was suggested that 256GB and 512GB versions of Samsung can last up to 70 years under normal use, but tests indicated that can last for over 80 years.

Here's an ongoing test: http://www.tweaktown.com/articles/5...-endurance-testing-tlc-to-the-end/index3.html

Interesting. But results will vary from user to user.

 

[oldikes]

Hard drives are still overpriced.

 

[dennis777]

Whats the cost of per GB of HDD/SSD?

 

[Jad Chaar]

Hard drives are still overpriced.

1TB=1000GB. $95 for a 1TB WD Caviar Black (one of the fastest 7200RPM drives you can get). That price has increased a bit since I last checked (a week ago). That is basically $.10 (10 cents) per GB. That is a bargain for a performance HDD.

 

[GeforcerFX]

I could tell after the floods (conveniently the time I needed new hard drives) that the SSD was going to finally get a break, they had progressed enough to make it worth the jump for a lot of people. Then when WD and SG kept prices high on HDD's months after the flood ( I understand a few months but almost a year comon) I new the Platter was dead, killed by its greedy owners, the scary part is that both western digital and Seagate are large companies more then capable of buying up some these SSD vendors so they still profit and can continue to push platters if they choose too, only time will tell how they react, I will stick with my platters for awhile longer, still have TB's of data to store and don't have thousands of dollars to do it with.

 

[Jad Chaar]

Platters wont be going anywhere anytime soon in the enterprise sector. As for consumers, the 5MM SSHD from WD is a big improvement in my opinion. A fast HDD (6GB/s) + a thin form factor + the new connector used in tablets (that doesnt require a power connector) + cheap price = win.

 

[oldikes]

I recall being able to get a 500GB hard drive for 35 bucks preflood, and a 1TB hard drive for less than 75.