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In 2015: Android first, Windows Phone second, iPhone third

By Emil
Mar 29, 2011
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  1. Smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Furthermore, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market: 49.2 percent in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones, according to International Data Corporation (IDC).

    Read the whole story
     
  2. what are you smoking?
     
  3. nismo91

    nismo91 TS Guru Posts: 1,003   +11

    predicting what exactly will be happen in the next 4 years are ridiculous.
     
  4. MilwaukeeMike

    MilwaukeeMike TS Evangelist Posts: 2,085   +715

    Predicting isn't ridiculous ('is', not 'are'). However, it would be ridiculous If you went out and made some large investing decisions based on it.
     
  5. Not surprising for Microsoft since you can't get their phone on Verizon. Why do these manufactures insist on being carrier exclusive and wonder why they can't grow their market share. Most businesses are on Verizon and would seriously consider the Windows 7 phone over blackberry but since it's not available they will go with something else or stay with blackberry and be locked into that when Microsoft finally decides to come to Verizon. Apple Iphone just experienced the same thing on Verizon.I just don't understand this.
     
  6. gwailo247

    gwailo247 TechSpot Chancellor Posts: 2,105   +18

    Why is it ridiculous to think that a company that has dominated 90% of the computer market will come to dominate the smartphone market? So they had a few failures, but probably from a lack of focus and direction rather than inability to create something.

    This is the problem when 15 year old children post, because while they may be smart, they have no perspective. Three years does not a lifetime make.

    I remember recently reading a post by some ***** who said that Sony never contributed anything meaningful to the personal audio market, and that Apple was the one who brought portable electronics into the mainstream. When I brought up the Walkman, he really didn't have any idea what I was talking about.

    The iPhone has been out for a few years, in fact smart phones in general have been out for a few years. Lets think back to the 80s. You had many operating systems running around, you had many hardware manufacturers, and then in the 90s it pretty much shrank just to Windows, with a smattering of OSX (or whatever it was called back then), and even smaller smattering of Linux.

    So now that we're in that nascent era of smart phone, its easy to say that Apple is the dominant player, or that Android will take over everything, but as with everything else, once the novelty wears off, the market will stabilize itself as it has with just about everything else.

    As long as Windows owns such a huge market share, they can keep trying, but by all accounts their current product is very well made, and is suffering more from marketing issues than technology issues.

    So if they deliver the promised Windows 8 integration with Windows smartphones and tablets, I think they will have a huge hit on their hands. Or they'll fail...
     
  7. Vrmithrax

    Vrmithrax TechSpot Paladin Posts: 1,286   +232

    From what I understood in previous stories regarding Verizon and Windows Phone, it was Verizon that chose not to jump in, not Microsoft trying to pull an exclusivity stunt. Verizon (and industry insiders) have been saying since late in 2010 that they would have WinPhones available sometime in 2011, with most indicators being late Q1 or Q2. Based on that feedback, plus a consideration of global markets, Microsoft chose to launch with GSM-only network compatibility first. CDMA came later, but has been finished for some time now. It's just up to Verizon to decide they want to sell another platform. They have been fairly busy pushing their (finally available) iPhone, high end Android units like the Thunderbolt, and 4G network launch.
     
  8. treeski

    treeski TS Guru Posts: 877   +130

    I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft gained significantly in market share over the next four years, as I think their first generation WP is a great product and has serious potential. On the hand, I simply wouldn't be surprised if it didn't. There are so many smartphone players on the market right now (Microsoft, Google, Apple, BlackBerry, HP, etc), who knows what things will look like.
     
  9. mosu

    mosu TS Enthusiast Posts: 305

    It might work for US & Canada, but for Europe it's a sure bet because Nokia has a stronghold here and WP7 or next type of WP will gain significant traction. Of course, this is only my opinion and I believe the key factor is how large the app pool is and how the carriers will subsidize different brands and models of smartphones.
     
  10. MilwaukeeMike

    MilwaukeeMike TS Evangelist Posts: 2,085   +715

  11. treeski

    treeski TS Guru Posts: 877   +130

    I agree that the size of the app pool is definitely important, but I'd argue that it's more a case of quality versus quantity. The key is having the top apps from other mobile OSes available for WP. People who consider switching smart phones are going to ask, "can get I get the same apps that I love on my other phone?".

    Also taking into account the expanding market share, people who are buying smart phones for the first time are probably less concerned about (perhaps less educated about or familiar with) app availability.
     
     
  12. You are right..they hve no clue wat they are sayin....
     
  13. What are you DRINKING?

    Windows Phone 7 does not even have a chance of EXISTING in 2015 -- Microsoft have basically given up on it internally already but are just keeping up a brave public face (too many big flops in a row already -- thank God for Kinnect). Nokia will take until next year to realize what a blunder they've made when they learn their wait for the next major versions is .... FOREVER.

    TONS of GREAT APPS + EXCELLENT OS EASE OF USE + EASY SYNC, BACKUP & APP/CONTENT PURCHASE SYSTEM + SLICK STYLE = HUGE SUCCESS

    Apple -- YES
    Android -- Soon
    WP7, RIM/QNX, HP WebOS -- NO

    And no amount of marketing bullshit or money OR hardware specs overkill with change that equation.

    End of story. Film at eleven
     
  14. How do you spell Zune? F-A-I-L-U-R-E

    MS exists only from revenues from Windows and it's enterprise system for business. It has utterly failed in almost all other ventures. Other than the aforementioned Windows & the enterprise system for Windows, first place is a pipe dream for MS much less second place with the exception of the X-Box.
     
  15. Windows Phone will never grow that far... what are you are smoking my friend????
     
  16. In my view by 2015 we will have an iPhone 8, and it will be invisible...
     
  17. This may only true because Microsoft is going to buy RIM in Q4 of 2011.
     
  18. Sorry, but I learned to vehemetly distrust people who claim they have the capability of knowing what will happen in the future... what colour is your crystal ball?
     
  19. Microsoft, pathetic 21st century wannabee in the smart phone sweepstakes, as in Zune, Surface, BOB previously, is doomed. Bill Gates exited upon reading the tea leaves and Ballmer is a complete and utter **** of a CEO with zero vision. Android may dominate, tho with its open OS invites worms, virii, dysfunction similar to Windoze swiss-cheese security. Apple has its closed system architecture which limits some variables, but preserves usability and has a ton of developers along with a mature iOS that is spanking Android's promise of HONEYCOMB, delayed til later in 2011. Smartphone smartbuyer have many choices. The smartest, who place a premium on value rather than cheapness, will rally around the iPhone, folks. GOOG makes no margin giving away its multi-flavored, spectrally varied, and beta-based OS. Users of Android, adopt at your own peril.
     
  20. in 2015..hmmm i predict apple will not be doing as great if their premier pitch man isnt around. who is going to mesmerize and hypnotize the lemmings into buying more iphones....
     
  21. This is a non-story. In 2015, Android = Hyundai, Windows Phone = Toyota, and iPhone = Porsche. Of course Apple will sell less, they're more expensive. Pretty simple economics. And the guest who said "who is going to mesmerize and hypnotize the lemmings into buying more iphones ..." is an *****. Apple is and always will be the industry leader in terms of innovation. The wannabes, including Google, just watch Apple's every move and then swipe their ideas. Android is a copy-and-paste rip off of the iPhone.
     
  22. Seriously?? Microsoft hasn't done anything truly innovative since Windows 95 and NT. Everything since has been just polish.
     
  23. hahahahahhahahhahaha (cough) ooops choked a little.

    I must be missing something I see the apple logo everywhere.
     
  24. Apple stopped innovating after the first iphone release. Android has leapfrogged them and apple is not going to catch up. Apple will continue to sell overpriced-underpowered phones just like they do with computers; to the few people who need a pre-school UI design.

    MACs have < 5% of the computer market; iphone is heading to that; probably sooner than 2015.
     
  25. More Apple hate... how boring /yawn
     


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