G
Guest
I agree. Are you a 15 yo, BTW?
You see this subject requires a little more analysis than, "Why is it ridiculous to think that a company that has dominated 90% of the computer market will come to dominate the smartphone market?" I'm sure you meant that as rhetorical. But, it's a good question. It is not ridiculous, however neither is it ridiculous that they could fail completely. In fact, it is much more likely they will fail in achieving significant market share than it is they will dominate. One only has to look at the dynamics that got them to 90% share of PC's and see that those dynamics do not apply here. To the contrary, MS is in serious danger of stagnating. Growth has moved to mobile, so PC OS profits will be squeezed. People are moving applications to the cloud, so office suite applications profits will be squeezed and there's plenty of competition in the server room too. Furthermore, MS has shown a distinct lack of vision and have failed miserably in markets where they can't leverage their existing monopoly.
"As long as Windows owns such a huge market share, they can keep trying, but by all accounts their current product is very well made, and is suffering more from marketing issues than technology issues." No, not really. WP7 is way behind the curve in stability and features and way behind in mindshare. Witness the latest update fiascos as well as the challenges in achieving the sort of stability people expect in appliances while being retargeted to a variety of HW platforms from a wide variety of manufacturers. Nobody is going to settle for the sort of reliability people despise in Windows. In fact, it's quite amazing that they would choose to brand their phone effort as "Windows", which is pretty synonymous in consumer's minds with unreliability, unsecure, and a general PITA to maintain. People are fleeing Windows as fast as they can. MS is surviving on inertia, but that won't last forever.
Of course, all of that doesn't mean that that they can't be successful, but it is completely preposterous to suggest that they will achieve a dominant position in 4 years, as 1) predicting that far out is simply ridiculous 2) MS has not shown recently that they have what it takes to compete in a market in which they can't already leverage their monopoly position in desktop OS' and office suites.
Probably their best chance is, assuming the Nokia partnership works well, is to buy Nokia outright and become an integrated vendor like Apple, HP, and RIM.
You see this subject requires a little more analysis than, "Why is it ridiculous to think that a company that has dominated 90% of the computer market will come to dominate the smartphone market?" I'm sure you meant that as rhetorical. But, it's a good question. It is not ridiculous, however neither is it ridiculous that they could fail completely. In fact, it is much more likely they will fail in achieving significant market share than it is they will dominate. One only has to look at the dynamics that got them to 90% share of PC's and see that those dynamics do not apply here. To the contrary, MS is in serious danger of stagnating. Growth has moved to mobile, so PC OS profits will be squeezed. People are moving applications to the cloud, so office suite applications profits will be squeezed and there's plenty of competition in the server room too. Furthermore, MS has shown a distinct lack of vision and have failed miserably in markets where they can't leverage their existing monopoly.
"As long as Windows owns such a huge market share, they can keep trying, but by all accounts their current product is very well made, and is suffering more from marketing issues than technology issues." No, not really. WP7 is way behind the curve in stability and features and way behind in mindshare. Witness the latest update fiascos as well as the challenges in achieving the sort of stability people expect in appliances while being retargeted to a variety of HW platforms from a wide variety of manufacturers. Nobody is going to settle for the sort of reliability people despise in Windows. In fact, it's quite amazing that they would choose to brand their phone effort as "Windows", which is pretty synonymous in consumer's minds with unreliability, unsecure, and a general PITA to maintain. People are fleeing Windows as fast as they can. MS is surviving on inertia, but that won't last forever.
Of course, all of that doesn't mean that that they can't be successful, but it is completely preposterous to suggest that they will achieve a dominant position in 4 years, as 1) predicting that far out is simply ridiculous 2) MS has not shown recently that they have what it takes to compete in a market in which they can't already leverage their monopoly position in desktop OS' and office suites.
Probably their best chance is, assuming the Nokia partnership works well, is to buy Nokia outright and become an integrated vendor like Apple, HP, and RIM.
