In 2015: Android first, Windows Phone second, iPhone third

By Emil
Mar 29, 2011
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  1. I agree. Are you a 15 yo, BTW?

    You see this subject requires a little more analysis than, "Why is it ridiculous to think that a company that has dominated 90% of the computer market will come to dominate the smartphone market?" I'm sure you meant that as rhetorical. But, it's a good question. It is not ridiculous, however neither is it ridiculous that they could fail completely. In fact, it is much more likely they will fail in achieving significant market share than it is they will dominate. One only has to look at the dynamics that got them to 90% share of PC's and see that those dynamics do not apply here. To the contrary, MS is in serious danger of stagnating. Growth has moved to mobile, so PC OS profits will be squeezed. People are moving applications to the cloud, so office suite applications profits will be squeezed and there's plenty of competition in the server room too. Furthermore, MS has shown a distinct lack of vision and have failed miserably in markets where they can't leverage their existing monopoly.

    "As long as Windows owns such a huge market share, they can keep trying, but by all accounts their current product is very well made, and is suffering more from marketing issues than technology issues." No, not really. WP7 is way behind the curve in stability and features and way behind in mindshare. Witness the latest update fiascos as well as the challenges in achieving the sort of stability people expect in appliances while being retargeted to a variety of HW platforms from a wide variety of manufacturers. Nobody is going to settle for the sort of reliability people despise in Windows. In fact, it's quite amazing that they would choose to brand their phone effort as "Windows", which is pretty synonymous in consumer's minds with unreliability, unsecure, and a general PITA to maintain. People are fleeing Windows as fast as they can. MS is surviving on inertia, but that won't last forever.

    Of course, all of that doesn't mean that that they can't be successful, but it is completely preposterous to suggest that they will achieve a dominant position in 4 years, as 1) predicting that far out is simply ridiculous 2) MS has not shown recently that they have what it takes to compete in a market in which they can't already leverage their monopoly position in desktop OS' and office suites.

    Probably their best chance is, assuming the Nokia partnership works well, is to buy Nokia outright and become an integrated vendor like Apple, HP, and RIM.
  2. Microsoft windows 8 will have app feature built in and will scale with cell phones, laptops, etc.

    I don't think they knew that little piece of data but having a app on both my PC at home that communicated with my phones apps would be very enticing for many reasons.

    Good speculation in my opinion. 4 years is a long time in consumer electronics.
  3. Apple most definitely in 3rd...at best. They better keep stealing HTC and Nokia technology to stay in business. Crapple is for morons who drink the koolaid.
  4. Thats funny, because last time I checked, Toyota and Hyundai had more car on the road then Porsche. Shrinking market share will drive devs away from your "Porsche" and straight to the "Toyota" and "Hyundai" camp., Thus making more people choose "Toyota" and "Hyundai", After that it becomes and vicious spiral to obscurity.
  5. Even more preposterous than trying to predict OS's 4 years out...

    Who cares which OS outsells the others? People buy phones, not OS's. Why down you predict who'll sell the most resistors, or ear buds? Why dwell on the OS? It's just a single component.

    And we all know which phone company will sell the most smart phones. The rest is just bits and pieces.
  6. Apple sells phones. Android is software.

    Care to guess who sells more cell phones, Apple or Google?
  7. Apple Sucks!!! All you people who think it's so great are brainwashed
  8. This "Andriod outsells" story pops up every couple of weeks. It's just a Google BJ.

    Who sells more computers Apple or Microsoft?

    Who sells more operating systems Apple or Microsoft?

    Who sells more cars Ford or Firestone? Tires?
  9. "640K should be enough for anyone"

    My money is on Android and Apple ruling the world.

    Microsoft just needs to go away.
  10. ahaha more apple fanboys.. gotta love them

    *trollface*
  11. In 2015 most smartphone customer will use apps to pay for grocery, bills, tickets.By this time, smartphone will have made creditcards, debitcads etc. obsolete. Smartphones will also allow consumers to store their id, their medical history, their insurance, their DNA, their SSC number etc. info. etc.. In 2015 the music and film industry will have the capability to monitor whether pirated material is being viewed on individual devices. Smartphones will also enable the government to remotely monitor what people are saying, typing and tweeting on their smartphones. For the first time in history, governments worldwide will have the possibility to stop crimes before their are happening, to prevent demonstrations before they are organized and to incarcerate political dissidents before they are able to type a critical thought. Imagine a world where terrorists attacks can be prevented years before they are executed. Of course, smartphones will be free and every citizen will be required to have one, post all their photos on mobile facebook (indecent prints will be outlawed). Smartphone users will be required to submit all their photos and videos. Of course, when they take a picture of the Statue of Liberty they will be required to pay a fee (how else can the State of New York pay for the upkeep of the monument).
    I am really looking forward to this bright smartphone future
     
  12. As a Solutions Architect for a major company and well versed in Microsoft products, I believe that many people do not get it that MS market share, expertise and revenue to finance mainly failed ventures come from Windows and Office franchise. Yes, I know that some products like X-Box have been doing well lately, but there are number of products Microsoft introduce that go nowhere. Mobility is one of them.

    I believe that IDC folks do not know what they are talking about. It is simply impossible to predict how the landscape will be in 4 years from now. IDC has based its prediction based on Nokia market share. But what IDC fails to understand is that many other Microsoft partners abandoned partnership with MS once they realized the sinking ship they were in.

    In my opinion we have 80% chances to see adoption for Nokia go down even further in the next one year. Then at that time, Android and iPhone may have already even stronger ecosystem and it should be even more challenging for Nokia to sell its Windows 7 phones successfully.I believe it gain a certain market share, but gaining the second spot seems a hard one to believe.
  13. WP7 mobile was a failure. WP7 cloned the iPhone with it's locking on app developments and requiring a Live account to use the phone. In addition, it took away the ability for users to sync with Outlook stand-alone and require Zune (like iTune) to sync music. It took away a lot of "user choice" to replicate iPhone. MS crowds are a lot different than iPhone crowds. To have MS WP7 to leap frog iPhone is like MS failure at the tablet. It's a little too late for MS to catch up.
  14. To < Zune / Kin / PC Tablets / Internet Explorer 8 / Windows Vista > add Windows 7 Mobile.
  15. I think what people are failing to realize is vision in depth analysis when making these assumptions. If I'm not mistaking the post was about market share not who is better.

    So with that being said I want to address what someone was saying about the toyota and hyndai (Spellcheck) and Porche. He said that if Apple is Porche then dev's will leave and go to android and others because they have the larger market share. That is incorrect. Android right now has a larger market share but it is proven that Android users are free-babies. They don't pay for sh!t and want everything free. Apple with IOS has developed users that are unique in the sense they pay for their apps and thus gives dev's more return on their Investment (ROI)... Soooo once again, Dev's are going where? Nowhere! They know where the money is. IOS is setup perfectly with services that are low cost and high quality which gives users the want to pay for something that is worth the quality to be at a reasonable price unlike a crippled android OS that is very buggy unrelaible. You buy in at version 2.2 and you are forgotten about and the next hardware that samsung sells will have 2.6 or what ever. The Hardware manufacture is sales driven off hardware so they have no incentive to maintaining your device and Google has not incentive because they are giving the android OS away for free to begin with and users are not their customers, advertisers are where they get their money from. So there main focus is flooding the market with as much Android OS products as possible to sell their ads to big companies that want to reach an enormous size of people to market to.

    So Apple won't be going anywhere soon.

    SN: Sorry for the mispelling and punctuation errors.
  16. lol , awesome.
  17. bonniesmith

    bonniesmith Newcomer, in training Posts: 40

    IMO this is logical I see ANdroid #1 and iPhone last
  18. Microsoft??? I thought their Phone7 sales were sluggish, which was expected, because the WP7 OS is complete crap. This article is a paid advertisement from Microsoft!!! Don't believe anything they say.
  19. nhirsch

    nhirsch Newcomer, in training

  20. Apple Fan Boy!
  21. All the mac haters are at it again... time and time again they are being counted out yet always seem to push innovation... I will be laughing 4 years from now when an article states how windows phone was yet another flop by microsoft
  22. Making predictions is good for a few ad impressions but otherwise just silly. Here's a few I've seen over the years for your next "where are they now?" article.

    "Linux is fast becoming a viable Windows challenger"

    Windows' reach assures that IE will dominate browser market share

    "A phone without a keypad is limited to a niche audience"
  23. android will dominate the market forsure and whoever thinks they wont is a pure dummmy because apple doesnt share there own operating system like google does..80 percent of every smartphone that comes out is google android operated..and once when those new android 3d phones that dont require 3d glasses come out later this year apple is gonna get smashed by google...to be honest i dont see why apple has becomed so sucsessful in the smartphone market the media hypes them up to much
  24. Actually smart phones were out since at least 1997. I had a palm phone made by sprint running palm os back then.
  25. Edit, my palm phone was made by samsung, not sprint, sprint was the exclusive carrier.


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