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Physicist predicts Moore's Law will collapse in about 10 years
Theoretical physicist Michio Kaku has posted a video discussing the collapse of Moore’s Law in about 10 years or so. Physicists have been predicting the end of Moore’s Law for quite some time but Kaku’s reasoning and the slowing down of processing power that we already see today lends some credibility to his claims.
For those unfamiliar, Moore’s Law pertains to computer hardware, stating that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit board can be doubled roughly every two years. You’ve probably alternately heard of an 18-month time frame tossed around. This modified cycle can be credited to Intel executive David House, not Moore.
Kaku says that in about 10 years, silicon power will be exhausted. Intel has already admitted that Moore’s Law is slowing down using silicon which is one of the reasons that we are seeing Tri-Gate transistors used in Ivy Bridge CPUs – an effort to try and extend the effective life of silicon.
The problem, Kaku says, is two-fold: heat and leakage. Today’s Intel processors have a layer that is almost down to 20 atoms across. When this layer is shrunk down to around five atoms across, “it’s all over.” At this point, the heat that is generated will be so intense that the chip will melt. The other concern is leakage, meaning we simply wouldn’t know where the electron is anymore.
So what’s in store for computing in the post-silicon era? Multiple proposals have been laid out, including but not limited to optical computers, protein computers, DNA computers, molecular computers and quantum computers.
The latter two solutions seem to be the most commonly accepted “future computers” but both solutions still present enormous challenges that must be conquered. Molecular computers already exist but mass production and wiring up the tiny molecules remains an issue.
Quantum computing is even more finicky with the world record for a quantum computing calculation being: 3 x 5 = 15. As Kaku explains, it doesn’t sound very impressive until you realize it was proven using only five atoms.
Wrapping it all up, Kaku predicts that scientists will tweak Moore’s Law in the next 10 years to extend its life. After that, molecular computers will likely take over followed by quantum computers later in the 21st century.
User Comments: 40
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funny how one of the most mathematically complete theories known to man suggests there is an infinite number of universes....and that makes fairies inevitable? And here we are making assumptions one way or the other while we think we know we are right.... yea...funny how one of the most mathematically complete theories known to man suggests there is an infinite number of universes....and that makes fairies inevitable? And here we are making assumptions one way or the other while we think we know we are right.... yea...
No, you're right. There are fairies everywhere, even in the best of homes......
Wow, I posted that reply to two dimensions, but the quote appeared in this dimension twice.....this will not do.....
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1 person liked this |
am i the only person who has absolutely no idea what the above people are talking about?
Ima need to take some more physics stuffs.
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am i the only person who has absolutely no idea what the above people are talking about?
Ima need to take some more physics stuffs.
Your not alone.
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am i the only person who has absolutely no idea what the above people are talking about?
Ima need to take some more physics stuffs.
Really, how could you be? The people that we give credit for knowing these things, such as nuclear physicists, have no idea what they're talking about either. This BS always makes for a great episode of "Nova", don't cha think....?
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Why are you guys talking about whether or not this should be considered a law? Laws are dropped or modified everyday, when they are no longer relevant. Moore's Law is no different from all the other laws, it will remain a law until it is no longer relevant.
Really, then why does Idaho have a law "Riding a merry-go-round on Sundays is considered a crime." or Michigan "A woman isn?t allowed to cut her own hair without her husband?s permission.". There are way too many laws that are never dropped.
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NO Coward poster iT is YOU who makes the industry look bad. Leave it now and never consider rejoining. For you a lowly position as an artist is the best to which you can aspire. Regarding Moores Law, its already becoming slightly moot as multiple cores becomes prevalent. I dont understand why smaller Dies means greater Heat.
Scientists recently recently discovered a new "superfood" a mixture of many vegatables in a sauce. Discovered by Prof. Cole. How great is that?
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NO Coward poster iT is YOU who makes the industry look bad. Leave it now and never consider rejoining. For you a lowly position as an artist is the best to which you can aspire. Regarding Moores Law, its already becoming slightly moot as multiple cores becomes prevalent. I dont understand why smaller Dies means greater Heat.Spoken like a true Jihhadist adbot. You go girlfriend......
Scientists recently recently discovered a new "superfood" a mixture of many vegatables in a sauce. Discovered by Prof. Cole. How great is that?
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Really, then why does Idaho have a law "Riding a merry-go-round on Sundays is considered a crime." or Michigan "A woman isn?t allowed to cut her own hair without her husband?s permission.". There are way too many laws that are never dropped.
I wasn't speaking for the ones that should be dropped or altered. Why are you taking my statement to extremes? I was speaking for the ones that have been dropped or modified. My point is laws are laws until someone decides they shouldn't be. Moore's Law is no different from any other law, which is subject to change at anytime.
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Ladies, ladies, tranquilase, "Moore's Law" wasn't handed down on stone tablets anyway. More like silicon wafers........
Or possibly, "tranquilenos" I think that's the 3rd person subjunctive plural.
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"There are fairies everywhere, even in the best of homes......"
No no, cpt, they couldnt possibly exist in our universe unless we prove it first.
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it would be hard to prove something exists if it couldnt exist until we had proven it though...
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The title of this article is misleading, no where does he claim that Moore's law will collapse, he just doesn't think silicon will be able to keep up with it.
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then the question is if something better than silicon will be cheap enough by the time this is supposed to happen. im pretty sure its saying if our technology doesnt make some game-changing leap again then it will collapse.
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Dude, I have mentioned it, and I think that it has been obvious for a very long time to most people using pure intuition that Moore's "Law" was false. People figure things out just by thinking about them long before any "scientific study" can prove them.
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Yeah, but it just happens that you cannot go smaller than an atom. For example you can run but if I cut you in half you won't be able to run anymore... actually you want be even alive.
So I think you just cannot have electricity at subatomic level. Electrons have to move somewhere. You cannot split the electrons in half and have twice the number of the electrons.
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