Further PC market declines predicted as IDC lowers 2013 estimates

By on August 30, 2013, 9:30 AM

For the third time this year, research firm IDC has lowered their PC shipment predictions for 2013, citing continued growth in the mobile device sector at the expense of traditional PCs. IDC now believes that worldwide PC shipments will fall by 9.7% in 2013, dropping from 349.2 million in 2012 to an estimated 315.4 million.

IDC highlights "depressed" consumer interest in PC products, high levels of stagnant inventory in China, "increased enthusiasm" for smartphones and tablets, and large market contractions in emerging regions as reasons to their estimate revisions. The firm doesn't believe that Windows 8.1, or improved power efficiency in the latest x86 processors, will have any great effect in stopping the market's decline.

Looking beyond 2013, IDC believes that the declines will continue into 2014, before embarking on a slow rebuilding process. However, by 2017 the market will have only recovered slightly, due to "modest" upgrades of consumer systems whose life-cycles have "dramatically" lengthened in recent years. IDC also expect businesses to begin taking a "serious look beyond Windows 7" after 2014, where Windows 8's tepid reception will be well and truly in the past.

As IDC don't count media tablets such as the iPad or Android devices in their shipment estimations (and it's unclear exactly where x86 Windows 8 tablets fall), to predict continued declines in the PC market seems fair. More and more people are turning to tablets, especially Android tablets, as replacements for, or companions to, their laptop or desktop PCs. At the same time, many people believe that their current computer is perfectly adequate and, as IDC suggest, will take longer to upgrade than in previous years.




User Comments: 10

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ddg4005 ddg4005 said:

Looks like it's time for that killer app that compels people to upgrade or replace their computers. Unfortunately the only apps capable of placing that great a demand on hardware are games and most of those are made for consoles and scaled to PCs later on.

Perhaps a new version of Descent with real-time lighting, ambient occlusion, and the rest of the alphabet soup of graphics features will do the trick. Oh and it should include support for DirectX 11.2 and require Core i7 processors and 16GB of RAM to run well.

tipstir tipstir, TS Ambassador, said:

After dual core systems most can be upgraded. Last year 2012 Windows 7 PCs sold more they were cheaper offer RAM upgrades from 4GB to 8GB to 16GB and 32GB really check on desktops and laptops were going for $249 those were with 4GB DDR3 for 4GB DDR3 more $23 bucks upgrade to 8GB DDR3. Same with the HDD SATAIII 320GB could be upgraded to 1TB or SSD with notebook option.

This year Windows 8 up in the air and prices are no where as low as they were last year. More deals were with coupon stacking at Staples where now it not the same.

Android tablets from COBY, SKYTEX, VISUAL LAND, Hisense Sero 7 Pro and the other unknowns are so cheap and do so much more than any Nexus/ASUS tablet can do. Android Tablets are fast as they only run Java apps. Today you can use Archos video Player Free this can run SMB/PnP off Windows 7/8 Shares and from NAS like ZXYEL NSA 320/325.

TheBigFatClown said:

Looks like it's time for that killer app that compels people to upgrade or replace their computers. Unfortunately the only apps capable of placing that great a demand on hardware are games and most of those are made for consoles and scaled to PCs later on.

Perhaps a new version of Descent with real-time lighting, ambient occlusion, and the rest of the alphabet soup of graphics features will do the trick. Oh and it should include support for DirectX 11.2 and require Core i7 processors and 16GB of RAM to run well.

Scaled to PCs later on? Why do I assume when someone uses the word scale they generally mean in the down direction.

So desktop computers are no longer considered mainstream...big deal. It still doesn't mean they are going to vanish. They will just be sold to a much smaller consumer market. The PC enjoyed ridiculous growth percentages over the years and that ride is over. So instead of gazillions of billions of dollars in PC sales each year they will simply have to settle for billions of dollars in sales each year.

That shouldn't be too difficult.

Tablets, smartphones, laptops, desktops, there's room for everybody at the table. The desktop computer just gets less of a share, thats all.

Or have I been making too light of this situation and THE WORLD IS ABOUT TO END?

Skidmarksdeluxe Skidmarksdeluxe said:

If you look at this sensibly it all makes sense. Powerful desktops for gaming are fast becoming a niche product with consoles endevouring to take their place. Individuals are turning to smartphones & tablets for their personal computing needs. Businesses will use desktops for the foreseeable future but don't have to be upgraded all that often because current desktop hardware is more than good enough, also thanks to Windows 8, businesses don't want to incur added expenses just to upgrade from XP/Win 7 which is unnecessary.

amstech amstech, TechSpot Enthusiast, said:

No need to update.

Anyone with E2160/Q8400/i3/Athlon II/Phenom II + type CPU power, with WIndows XP or 7 will still run and perform well. Thats not including an SSD or other things you can do.

Sandy and Ivy and even Haswell (as nice as they are) aren't much better then Bloomfield/Clarkdale for 90% of what your average user does.

ddg4005 ddg4005 said:

Scaled to PCs later on? Why do I assume when someone uses the word scale they generally mean in the down direction.

So desktop computers are no longer considered mainstream...big deal. It still doesn't mean they are going to vanish. They will just be sold to a much smaller consumer market. The PC enjoyed ridiculous growth percentages over the years and that ride is over. So instead of gazillions of billions of dollars in PC sales each year they will simply have to settle for billions of dollars in sales each year.

That shouldn't be too difficult.

Tablets, smartphones, laptops, desktops, there's room for everybody at the table. The desktop computer just gets less of a share, thats all.

Or have I been making too light of this situation and THE WORLD IS ABOUT TO END?

I wouldn't say the PC's ride is over, it's on hiatus at the moment. If anything I'd say that the market for tablets and smartphones is reaching the point of saturation where most people will more than one (too many in fact). That market might stall out someday in the near future when folks want to do more than read and send e-mail and surf the World Wide Web.

Guest said:

I'm still using motherboards at home with P67 (revC) and Z68 chipsets as the later ones have no real benefits except minor enhancements integrated USB3 that were already catered for with addon chipsets (same has to be done even for PCI bus slots).

Really Intel, give us something AMAZING to want to upgrade to, not just Apple's idea of 'it's new so rollover and buy it like a good doggie'.

Intel seem to spend a lot of time developing fairly useless business protocols in their chipsets, but where is the advanced personal user focus?

Guest said:

AHHH GGD , thats like saying people will get bored and go back to beepers as a form of communication, a smartphone does what 90% of us do almost every day , dont bring that 80FPS on ultra B. S , its about check facebook 20 times a day , send email text , news, angry birds , or whatever is the fashion at the moment.

Guest said:

Just another "PC is doomed, smartphone is the future" article -_-

windmill007 said:

Apperarently people play more than work. You can't do real work on anything but a pc. I know a lot of people who just play and don't mind staring at 11" or smaller screens all day. I personally use my smart phone or tablet occasionally when mobile or being lazy but I would much prefer to sit at my 27" powerfully fast computer when giving a choice for most stuff. Everything has its place but some people are content using a slower, small screened device because for what they do its fine to them and they don't do more than play or surf the net. Once the play market is saturated I think pcs will enjoy a non declining market. The growth phase is now over that's all.

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