DDR5 predicted to hold more market share than DDR4 by 2023

[midian182]

Forward-looking: We’ve heard quite a bit about DDR5 recently, but when can we expect to see it replace DDR4 as the standard? Sooner than you might think: according to one industry analyst, adoption of DDR5 in the mainstream market should take place by 2023.

According to market research/analyst/consulting firm Yolle Developpement (via Tom’s Hardware), the server and enterprise markets will be behind a 25% increase in DDR5 adoption in 2022. A year later, it will become the dominant memory in mainstream PCs, laptops, phones, etc., taking more than a 50% market share—I.e., shipping more than DDR4.

Throughout 2024 – 2026, DDR5 is expected to gain the sort of share DDR4 currently enjoys, grabbing around 95% of the market. Yolle Developpement believes the colossal demand for memory won’t slow down, and the market will be worth over $200 billion by 2026.

Intel’s hybrid Alder Lake desktop CPUs, set to launch in the second half of the year, are rumored to support both DDR5 and DDR4. It’s speculated that lower-end motherboards will use the current standard, while high-end options will come with DDR5 support. AMD, meanwhile, is expected to embrace DDR5 with the launch of Zen 4, set to arrive in late 2022 or early 2023.

The JEDEC Solid State Technology Association announced the final DDR5 memory specification last year. It quadruples the density of DDR4, jumping from 16 Gb per die to 64 Gb, allowing manufacturers to make DIMMs with capacities reaching 2 TB. DDR5 also offers a maximum data rate 6.4 Gbps—double that of DDR4—though some companies are pushing past that.

	DDR5	DDR4
Frequency*	3200 → 8400	1600 → 3200
Density	2 Gb → 16 Gb	8 Gb → 64 Gb
Operating Voltage	1.1 V	1.2 V
Peak-to-Peak Voltage	1.8 V	2.5 V
Burst Length	16	8
Bank Groups	8	4
Banks (Total)	32	16
Prefetch Length	16n	8n

*This is the rate of MT/s, which is not the true frequency but an appropriate substitute.

Whether DDR5 does ship more than DDR4 in 2023 could depend on the global chip shortage. With one manufacturer warning that the crisis could last another two years, DDR5 is unlikely to dominate the market if consumers are still struggling to buy components.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/90062-ddr5-predicted-outpace-ddr4-2023.html

 

[Puiu]

I very much doubt it. DDR tech doesn't change that fast. Maybe what they meant to say is that in 2023 the majority of people will stop buying DDR4 for new systems.

 

[Sherwoodnt]

Are the density specs swapped in the chart? Or am I not reading the article and the chart correctly?

 

[Lounds]

I doubt it, DDR4 had more growth when it's prices were stable, if DDR5 is a rip off price for 2 sticks then it will be a slow adoption.

 

[TheBigFatClown]

I doubt it, DDR4 had more growth when it's prices were stable, if DDR5 is a rip off price for 2 sticks then it will be a slow adoption.

The price will determine how quickly DDR5 will be adopted. If they give early adopters a good price then I'll buy. If not, then I'll wait. It's that simple from my viewpoint.

I bought my first kit of DDR4 early in the release period and it was a good price. I'm hoping I can repeat the move again by being an early adopter.

 

[fraggleki]

The price will determine how quickly DDR5 will be adopted. If they give early adopters a good price then I'll buy. If not, then I'll wait. It's that simple from my viewpoint.

I bought my first kit of DDR4 early in the release period and it was a good price. I'm hoping I can repeat the move again by being an early adopter.

Price has very little to do with adoption. The majority of computers aren't being bought piece by piece like gamers do. Intel/AMD control the adoption rate of DDR5 because of their processors and chipsets.

 

[Lionvibez]

I don't see this happening by 2023. With Alderlake coming out in the fall and Zen 4 not until the end of 2022. I don't see DDR5 holding more market share in a year and a half. How many new builds are they expecting in that time frame doesn't sound accurate.

 

[TheBigFatClown]

Price has very little to do with adoption. The majority of computers aren't being bought piece by piece like gamers do. Intel/AMD control the adoption rate of DDR5 because of their processors and chipsets.

Right...but even if everybody isn't a gamer it doesn't mean casual everyday consumers dont want good deals on prebuilt OEM systems. Supply and demand is like a known law of the universe.
I was speaking mostly from my viewpoint. So that's why I stated my intentions of getting DDR5 cheap early in the game if its priced right.
Intel/AMD cannot control everything happening in the world at all moments. So, we just have to wait and see....I will not beg for DDR5...that's for sure.

 

[defaultluser]

Right...but even if everybody isn't a gamer it doesn't mean casual everyday consumers dont want good deals on prebuilt OEM systems. Supply and demand is like a known law of the universe.
I was speaking mostly from my viewpoint. So that's why I stated my intentions of getting DDR5 cheap early in the game if its priced right.
Intel/AMD cannot control everything happening in the world at all moments. So, we just have to wait and see....I will not beg for DDR5...that's for sure.

Well, part of the strange prices for DDR4 was the cell phone rush happening a year after Skylake (because the LP spec was not defined until then). Modern phones have already moved-on to LPDDR5 last year (so, manufacturers are already ramped-up for more growth next year).

It's quite uncertain, but I could see it happening!

 

[Todd Sauve]

I seriously doubt it unless a LOT of people buy brand new PCs in 2023! DDR 5 is going to set new records for how expensive it is and I think a great many people will just say "Well, you know my 'old' PC still looks pretty good after all!"

 

[captaincranky]

I'm using DDR2 in my web box, and it's plenty fast enough for me to make a royal pain the a** of myself.

 

[JamesBlond]

Make DDR5 the same price for Double the Ram, then I will buy it otherwise my system is already a monster, dont need to upgrade, no reason to

 

[Strawman]

I don't see this happening by 2023. With Alderlake coming out in the fall and Zen 4 not until the end of 2022. I don't see DDR5 holding more market share in a year and a half. How many new builds are they expecting in that time frame doesn't sound accurate.

You didnt read the article I assume. Its talking about market share on shipments,ie how many are sold. I can easily see ddr5 outselling / competing with ddr4 in 2023

 

[Lionvibez]

You didnt read the article I assume. Its talking about market share on shipments,ie how many are sold. I can easily see ddr5 outselling / competing with ddr4 in 2023

I read the article and I still don't buy those time lines but we shall see.