DRAM price decline predicted for early 2025 across PC, server, and GPU markets

[Shawn Knight]

The big picture: A combination of buyer strategies and market conditions are expected to drive DRAM prices down across the board in the first quarter of 2025. As outlined in TrendForce's latest market report, PC OEMs accelerated inventory reduction efforts in Q4 2024. The strategy is expected to persist into the first quarter of next year, further suppressing bit procurement volumes.

DDR4 price declines, in particular, are expected to accelerate due in part to sluggish consumer demand, increased production from Chinese suppliers, and low-priced chips flooding the market. As a result, PC DRAM prices are expected to drop by eight to 13 percent.

Server DRAM pricing – both DDR4 and DDR5 – is expected to weaken in part because of slow seasonal demand. Manufacturers have also started shifting DDR4 capacity to DDR5 production, while others are moving HBM production to focus on DDR5. As a result, server DRAM prices as a whole could fall by five to 10 percent in Q1 as DDR4 price declines accelerate.

Memory for mobile solutions and graphics products will also be impacted. Smartphone manufacturers have spent the past two quarters adjusting DRAM stockpiles, which will allow them to maintain a passive procurement strategy in Q1 2025 in hopes of attaining more favorable contract pricing. As such, TrendForce expects contract pricing for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X to fall by eight to 13 percent and three to eight percent, respectively, in Q1 2025.

GDDR7 stockpiling for next-gen GPUs will help graphics DRAM pricing but even still, broader DRAM market weakness and heightened inventories will impact the market. TrendForce expects to see graphics DRAM market prices decline by an average of five to 10 percent in Q1.

Related reading: Cheap vs. Premium DDR5: Stock vs. EXPO/XMP Memory

For the average consumer looking to pick up a new kit of DDR4 or DDR5 memory for a new build or an existing rig, now is a great time to do so. Prices are low and with post-holiday sales, you can save even more. This 32GB kit of G.Skill DDR4, for example, is under $50 over on Newegg.

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DRAM price decline predicted for early 2025 across PC, server, and GPU markets

 

[maxxcool7421]

**snort** the dram cartel in the US will simply lower production, fire workers, idle factories to drive the price back up

 

[Squid Surprise]

I would like to upgrade my RAM for my Threadripper but it is still prohibitive…. Holding my breath

 

[antiproduct]

**snort** the dram cartel in the US will simply lower production, fire workers, idle factories to drive the price back up

Or a factory fire, or some other natural disaster to one of their factories...

 

[Skjorn]

**snort** the dram cartel in the US will simply lower production, fire workers, idle factories to drive the price back up

Nand suppliers started reduction a good while back. Now look at how high a SSD is. I bought a 2TB Samsung 990 Pro this time last year for like $110. No black Friday sales or nothing. Now they claim they have this sudden surprise in demand from AI they never could've seen coming.

 

[AlexIL]

No worries, less and less people upgrade or buy new systems. State of gaming and business markets been miserable for a few years so if they want sales they’ll lower their greed. Nobody cares what kind of disaster strikes their factories when looking at the wallets and see holes there.

 

[captaincranky]

Isn't all this speculation based on whether trimp makes good on his promise/threats of more tariffs on Chines goods? He did after all, make good on the threat of tariffs on Chinese goods. during his first term.

There are few possible outcomes. Arguably, the most salient or likely, is, RAM comes down 10%, then promptly gets tagged with a 10% tariff, resulting in a zero sum game for consumers.

As to whether manufacturers will decide to drop their pants further to maintain volume, (and the pretense of "caring"), is unknown. What is known, is that the first time the prices got too low, (in their opinions), they cut production.

The one thing most likely to happen, is that Jensen Huang will follow his traditional pricing strategy whereas, "the 'Nvidia tax' goes in, before the MSRP goes on".

Not only that, but the makers could flat out deny any culpability for whatever price increases happen, and either blame it on the US market, and/or their suppliers. Hey, those all solid Japanese capacitors that YOU've been demanding, ain't cheap ya know.

Considering the amount of apprehension, paranoia, expectations, perhaps the "inevitability" of price increases, every CEO in Asia could , "do a Pontius Pilate", wash their hands of it, and walk away. Meanwhile, making their stockholders very happy in the process.

To end this on a "humorous", or perhaps an "ironic" note, Chinese New Year begins January 29th. nine days after our presidential inauguration. BTW and FWIW this is, "the year of the snake".