International Monetary Fund warns AI "tsunami" could impact 6 out of 10 jobs in advanced economies

[midian182]

A hot potato: We're used to hearing warnings from industry experts about how AI will affect the jobs market, but the latest prediction carries extra weight as it comes from the head of the IMF. Dr. Kristalina Georgieva says AI is hitting the global labor market "like a tsunami," likely to impact 6 out of every 10 jobs in advanced economies.

Georgieva, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, made the ominous forecast at an event organized by the Swiss Institute of International Studies. She said the impact of AI will be felt in 40% of jobs around the world, a figure that rises to 60% in advanced economies like the US.

Georgieva warned that workers and organizations needed to prepare themselves for this change. "We have very little time to get people ready for it, businesses ready for it," she told the event, via Reuters.

Georgieva added that not all aspects of AI's use in the workplace are negative.

"It could bring tremendous increase in productivity if we manage it well," she said, warning that "it can also lead to more misinformation and, of course, more inequality in our society."

Georgieva said that the world had become more resilient to global turmoil after experiencing the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. She also noted that despite previously fast-rising inflation, predictions that most economies would fall into recession never happened. It's an example of how economies can often weather disruption better than people imagine.

There have been numerous reports on the number of jobs that AI is expected to eliminate – over 2 million in the US by 2030, according to one study, while Goldman Sachs believes it could impact 300 million jobs in the US and Europe.

We've already seen examples of generative AI taking jobs; it's often cited as one of the reasons behind the mass layoffs the tech and gaming industries have been experiencing.

AI advocates constantly point to the claim that AI will ultimately create more jobs than it eliminates: 97 million vs. 85 million, according to the World Economic Forum. We'll have to wait and see if that proves accurate, or if many people simply drown as the AI wave crashes down.

Masthead: Nikko Macaspac

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International Monetary Fund warns AI "tsunami" could impact 6 out of 10 jobs in advanced economies

 

[ScottSoapbox]

"Impact" jobs is a very broad word.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

You will own nothing, you will have no income, and you will be unhappy.

Wait.....

 

[Dimitriid]

What bothers me is that these projections make AI seem inevitable because they make it seem infallible as more and more jobs are replaced.

I'm sure a lot of companies will jump head first but what happens after the first wave of horrifying, business-destroying mistakes are made by the AI? Do you really think these projections will continue to hold once we show what we already know: that AI and ML models are as capable of replacing humans as a Parrot is capable of replacing a person in conversation? Sure it memorizes a few phrases and can really sound human but there's no cognition there: there's no 'Intelligence' anywhere to be found.

I'm sure most people will not like this last point but it needs to be said: whenever you see headlines by organizations like the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank remember what their purpose is: to expand capitalists interests around the globe. Right now, those interests are 'AI is good, actually' so what might seem at glance like a warning, it's just propagandizing for AI products: 'AI is inevitable, people need to get ready for AI to inevitable take their jobs.' which their answers would be the usual the IMF proposals: deregulate the economy even more, privatize public services and nationalized industries, condition most loans to struggling economies to promises of committing to deregulation and privatization efforts, etc.

Just promises of prosperity, enough prosperity to 'Prepare for AI taking your jobs' which are mostly empty and ineffective propaganda that only ever results in said economies struggling even more, poverty expanding even more (Favorite trick of IMF claims: "Wealth" and "production" increase but the extra money only ever goes to foreign interest and a tiny ruling class), And so on.

 

[monkeylove]

One catch to consider is that robots aren't consumers. That means businesses rely on the same workers to buy or pay for goods and services that they sell.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Like any waive of automation, there are a lot of folks out there whose work really is "robotic". Office workers are simply used to that robotic work being manual in nature and more blue collar work being automated.

File/process papers, run/send reports, process payrolls, etc etc etc. A lot of it can be automated and will be automated and some people will retarget and other people will be left behind.

Even things like training can theoretically become more interactive and responsive while not requiring an actual person to conduct the training.

Just the nature of beast.

 

[Ashford]

Some suggestions on how to prepare might be nice....

 

[redgarl]

Well, I could see call center to be on the way out with new AI breakthrough shown this week.

 

[scavengerspc]

You will own nothing, you will have no income, and you will be unhappy.

Wait.....

I believe its possible a segment of the population will have all those things.
Just a very small segment.

Some suggestions on how to prepare might be nice....

No problem sir, how to prepare is a very valid question.
Put your head between your legs and kiss your a*s goodbye.

 

[VitalyT]

Here's the real tsunami for you...

This technology makes all the efforts to make people irrelevant, to serve just a tiny few, and dump the rest. What happens next - the society will get desperate, take torches and pitchforks, so to speak, and burn the f-ers behind it all to the ground. This is how civil revolutions start, but it never teaches the greedy top, they will keep doing their evil deeds till the system collapses.

All the signs of it are already here. I am an IT specialist with 30 years of experience, and recently found out myself without a job, and unable to find any job anymore, no matter how I try. Only 2 years ago, the situation was quite the opposite for me. For anything I find on LinkedIn, it takes a little over 1 hour to show over 100 applicants for it, which is absolutely crazy, I've never seen anything like this. I see it as a strong sign that things are going to sh-t globally, and AI plays a huge part in it.

Many warnings are popping up these days... https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/social-...n-ai-era-two-top-japan-companies-say-1a71cc1d

 

[Nelson28]

AI could be good for productivity, but also lead to more inequality. Not sure if everyone will find new jobs after the AI wave crashes down.

 

[Jme Kerul]

File/process papers, run/send reports, process payrolls, etc etc etc. A lot of it can be automated and will be automated and some people will retarget and other people will be left behind.

Even things like training can theoretically become more interactive and responsive while not requiring an actual person to conduct the training.

Watch that famous movie called "office space".
In "corporate America" company style, 6 out of 10 are cruft, paper pushers, email forwarders, Excel fillers.
Bayer fired the entire line managersband saving are 2b per year.
Correctly implemented AI will replace 60% of the "corporate America" managers.
The only problem is those deciding to perform the replacement are part of the replacées!

 

[Underdog]

Only paper pushers need to be worried. Those who sell their skills working for themselves and not for some parasite employer will be OK.

 

[yannus]

Only paper pushers need to be worried. Those who sell their skills working for themselves and not for some parasite employer will be OK.

Paper pushers are most people, when they are broke, others will also pay the consequences. So thinking that 5 to 10% of the population can compensate for the rest or live without worrying about them is probably wrong.