Nvidia: RTX 3000-series supply issues will last for months

[midian182]

TL;DR: Are you hoping to grab an RTX 3000-series card before the year’s out? Unless you pay a fortune for one from eBay, it might be wishful thinking. Another Nvidia executive has confirmed that demand for the cards is expected to far outweigh supply into 2021.

Anyone who’s tried and failed to buy an Ampere card since their release will doubtlessly be frustrated at what has become a familiar situation—the Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 5, Ryzen 5000 CPUs, and the newly launched Radeon RX 6800 series have all proved maddeningly difficult to get hold of, and things are unlikely to improve anytime soon.

Back in October, Nvidia boss Jensen Huang said that demand for the latest RTX cards would outstrip supply through the year, a situation that would be made worse by the upcoming holiday season. “The demand issue is that it is much, much greater than we expected,” said the CEO.

Don't do it!

Now, Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress has echoed Huang’s statement. “Given industry-wide capacity constraints and long cycle times, it may take a few more months for product availability to catch up with demand,” she said during an earnings call with investors this week.

Huang, who also spoke on the call, suggested that Nvidia wasn't to blame. “We would appreciate shorter cycle times. We would appreciate more agile supply chains. But you know the world is constrained at the moment. And so, we just have to make the best of it,” he said.

Nvidia says the Ampere cards’ supply issues are expected to last throughout the fourth quarter of its fiscal year, which ends in late January 2021.

Bitcoin's price over the last three months

Another factor that could make the situation even worse is the increasing price of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is currently at just over $18,000, its highest value since 2017. With mining becoming more profitable, it could lead to a resurgence in demand for multi-GPU mining rigs. Additionally, Ampere cards are reportedly very popular with Ethereum miners. Back when Bitcoin last hit such high levels in late 2017, graphics card prices went through the roof for months.

Nvidia made $4.73 billion during the last quarter, an increase of 57 percent compared to the $3.01 billion brought in during the same period last year and up 22 percent compared to the $3.87 billion in Q2. It expects to generate $4.80 billion during the holiday season.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/87685-nvidia-rtx-3000-supply-issues-last-months.html

 

[kimo1]

Just wait a year or half and you start seeing (ab)used cards on sale with seller's comment "definitely not used for 24/7 mining".

 

[Endymio]

Another factor that could make the situation even worse is the increasing price of Bitcoin

Any miner here feel free to correct me, but most of the serious miners have gone FPGA or ASIC. I don't think mining will be contributing much to GPU shortages in the months to come.

 

[QuantumPhysics]

I am just thankful I was able to get mine.

This is the worst time to be a gamer. Not only were all the video cards snapped up but the consoles as well.

I waited in line to get each Nvidia card. I got each from Microcenter. Best Buy never had them in store- only online.

I am using my 3090.

I put the 3080 in my boy’s computer.

I sold off my 3070 to a guy in Hawaii for his build.
He never would have been able to get it otherwise.

 

[QuantumPhysics]

If you want a 3000 series just go to EBay. Hopefully you have a 0% interest credit card that gives you 12-24 months to pay off the balance.

 

[emmzo]

By this trend, people who want to buy at MSRP will be able to do it when the next gen comes out.

 

[QuantumPhysics]

By this trend, people who want to buy at MSRP will be able to do it when the next gen comes out.

That's pretty much what happened previously with the 2000 series. Coinminers bought up all the cards.

 

[VariableSpike]

Any miner here feel free to correct me, but most of the serious miners have gone FPGA or ASIC. I don't think mining will be contributing much to GPU shortages in the months to come.

Bitcoin tends to not be mined with GPU's, however bitcoin tends to set the market trend for other altcoins (ethereum etc.) which are largely mined using GPUs, especially as many of the newer coins have algorithms designed to put ASIC's / FPGA's on the back foot so the mining difficult does not rise too quickly

 

[Irata]

The current market situation is not good for enthusiasts regardless if they are looking for a next gen CPU, GPU or console.

The important question is how far will demand outweigh supply, I.e. is it a question of having to wait a couple of weeks longer before one is able to get a hold of it, or will it be close to impossible to get a hold of these items for the next couple of months the non-lurking / camping / knowing someone way.

So really, what percentage of demand can be satisfied when ?

 

[QuantumPhysics]

The current market situation is not good for enthusiasts regardless if they are looking for a next gen CPU, GPU or console.

The important question is how far will demand outweigh supply, I.e. is it a question of having to wait a couple of weeks longer before one is able to get a hold of it, or will it be close to impossible to get a hold of these items for the next couple of months the non-lurking / camping / knowing someone way.

So really, what percentage of demand can be satisfied when ?

If you want a Founder's Edition card, be prepared to go on Ebay, get ripped off, and buy one.

If you don't mind waiting for the new 3rd party cards that lack the FE's shroud and cooling design, then you can wait and buy one later when stocks replenish.

Personally, I love having Founder's Edition cards.

Just use the credit card.

 

[Aryassen]

The current market situation is not good for enthusiasts regardless if they are looking for a next gen CPU, GPU or console.

The important question is how far will demand outweigh supply, I.e. is it a question of having to wait a couple of weeks longer before one is able to get a hold of it, or will it be close to impossible to get a hold of these items for the next couple of months the non-lurking / camping / knowing someone way.

So really, what percentage of demand can be satisfied when ?

I don't thnk anyone can, or wants, to confirm what percantage of the demand can be addressed and by when (I think it would be too embarrasing). I have a feeling (and just a feeling) that it wasn't a case of misjudging the demand, but the harsh reality of component availability in the supply chains.

After decades of trading in the business, I just can't really imagine that they so grossly underestimated the potential demand. Like Huang said: they try to make best of what they have. And I think they know full well how little that is, only they most likely can't do much about it (I'm sure NVidia themselves would much prefer to sell millions of cards and make a LOT of profit).

As for buying from scalpers at inflated prices using a credit card, I just can't agree to that. New gen GPU is not a life necessity, I can comfortably live without it, and I don't want to support sellers with vulture mentality. But that's just me...

 

[QuantumPhysics]

As for buying from scalpers at inflated prices using a credit card, I just can't agree to that.

There are haves and there are have nots.

If you want to wait for stocks to replenish, that's fine. But if you want that FE model, chances are you have no other option. It's gonna be like 3 years before we see 4000 series cards. The choice is yours.

It's funny: I was on Walmart's website yesterday trying to get PS5 for one of my cousins - which in my opinion deserves nothing - but the PS5 and Xbox were snapped up in seconds after the 3PM open.

I told her straight up: if you want it, you can go on Ebay and pay twice as much.

It's not a great choice, but it's a choice nonetheless.

 

[matagyula]

This is the worst time to be a gamer. Not only were all the video cards snapped up but the consoles as well.

I would argue that this is a great time to be a gamer - if you already have HW that is not 10 years old
If the HW you have is too old, then presumably buying a last-gen GPU (if available) should still net a hefty performance increase.

These are hard times for the whole planet, GPU shortages, while unfortunate, are in the end a nice problem to have - we finally have competition at the high end, woo!

 

[CrisisDog]

Nvidia phasing out SLI at this time has not helped...

 

[Irata]

There are haves and there are have nots.

You could also say there those who spend wastefully and those who do not. Depends how you look at it.

I told her straight up: if you want it, you can go on Ebay and pay twice as much.

It's not a great choice, but it's a choice nonetheless.

Agreed - there is a choice. It really depends how much you want something, I.e. on the item's marginal utility for you.

In my case, yes, I would like a new GPU or a new XBox, but I need neither (have the older versions), so the marginal utility of spending the scalper tax on something else instead is higher.

But that's always a highly individual choice and not necessarily related to being a "have" or "have not".

 

[NicktheWVAHick]

Preparation for Socialism. This is what they didn’t teach all you snowflakes about in school. Welcome to the New Workd Order. You asked for it.

 

[QuantumPhysics]

Preparation for Socialism. This is what they didn’t teach all you snowflakes about in school. Welcome to the New Workd Order. You asked for it.

I love how people mention socialism and have no idea what they are talking about.

#1 The Government didn't buy up and redistribute these GPU cards...regular credit card holders did.

#2 The very act of scalping by purchasing up products using a credit card and reselling them at high prices is a function of unrestricted capitalism.

Same goes for the scalping of PS5/Xbox,Switch, etc.

No one could possibly argue that it isn't.

In order for this to be "socialism", the government would have to buy the cards and redistribute them, or they'd have to mail us welfare checks big enough to buy the cards.

 

[QuantumPhysics]

I would argue that this is a great time to be a gamer - if you already have HW that is not 10 years old
If the HW you have is too old, then presumably buying a last-gen GPU (if available) should still net a hefty performance increase.

These are hard times for the whole planet, GPU shortages, while unfortunate, are in the end a nice problem to have - we finally have competition at the high end, woo!

I reject the premise there is a GPU shortage.

The GPU are available. It's just that you're gonna pay the scalper's ransom.

What there is, is an excess of CREDIT.

I could buy up a bunch of GPUs, PS5 or Xboxes/ Switches in preparation for Christmas with very little-to no-risk, mark them up and then resell them on Ebay.

I could only do that with a credit card as I'd never risk my own cash.

Sell them at profit and repay the creditor. If they don't sell, I can return them with a receipt.

There are plenty of GPU available, but you are in an overhyped marked where the incentive is to scalp.

 

[NicktheWVAHick]

I love how people mention socialism and have no idea what they are talking about.

#1 The Government didn't buy up and redistribute these GPU cards...regular credit card holders did.

#2 The very act of scalping by purchasing up products using a credit card and reselling them at high prices is a function of unrestricted capitalism.

Same goes for the scalping of PS5/Xbox,Switch, etc.

No one could possibly argue that it isn't.

In order for this to be "socialism", the government would have to buy the cards and redistribute them, or they'd have to mail us welfare checks big enough to buy the cards.

When “demand” outstrips “supply” and there is NO incentive to make more (I.e.capitalism) then it is socialism 101. You may be surprised to learn that scalpers flourish under socialism. You are all so blind to reality it’s really appalling.

 

[Endymio]

When “demand” outstrips “supply” and there is NO incentive to make more (I.e.capitalism) then it is socialism 101. You may be surprised to learn that scalpers flourish under socialism. You are all so blind to reality it’s really appalling.

Yes, of course he missed your point entirely. I lived in the USSR for a time, and the situation that @QuantumPhysics is whining about with GPUs was an everyday experience with everything from basic food staples to bars of soap. There was nothing available from the stores -- you bought everything from a black market scalper, or you went without.

 

[Wrinkle]

I would argue that this is a great time to be a gamer - if you already have HW that is not 10 years old
If the HW you have is too old, then presumably buying a last-gen GPU (if available) should still net a hefty performance increase.

These are hard times for the whole planet, GPU shortages, while unfortunate, are in the end a nice problem to have - we finally have competition at the high end, woo!

You're absolutely right. Reading the comment threads on tech sites it seems that people would choose a 3080 or 6900xt over a corona vaccine.

Still, it's slightly annoying. I want to play AC Valhalla but my 2060 isn't really up to the task. Oh well, the game will only get cheaper.

 

[matagyula]

Preparation for Socialism. This is what they didn’t teach all you snowflakes about in school. Welcome to the New Workd Order. You asked for it.

I personally would lean towards the fact that there is a global pandemic affecting everyone, combined with a launch of new consoles, processors and graphics cards.

Of course it is also possible that this is all part of a big conspiracy. After all, who would like to have all the people glued to their screens, playing videogames, instead of doing something more productive, like, I don't know, posting on a discussion forum? Am I right?

But don't take it just from me, Tim elaborated on the situation a bit more in depth.

 

[yRaz]

When “demand” outstrips “supply” and there is NO incentive to make more (I.e.capitalism) then it is socialism 101. You may be surprised to learn that scalpers flourish under socialism. You are all so blind to reality it’s really appalling.

I don't think you understand what socialism or capitalism is.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

When “demand” outstrips “supply” and there is NO incentive to make more (I.e.capitalism) then it is socialism 101. You may be surprised to learn that scalpers flourish under socialism. You are all so blind to reality it’s really appalling.

You have no idea what capitalism is either if you think the lack of interest in making more supply is a tenant of capitalism. Amd and nvidia don’t benefit from scalpers high pricing things. It is in their best interest to make enough supply to keep sales going. A lack of supply to meet demand is lost money in the form of delayed sales and the possibility of a competitor taking those sales before you can.

 

[candle_86]

Sounds like it's time for nvidia to open their own fab or buy one so they get priority