Plug-in hybrids are driving EV sales growth, but industry faces roadblocks ahead

[zohaibahd]

In a nutshell: The electric vehicle revolution kicked into higher gear in the first quarter of 2024, with global EV sales jumping 18% compared to the same period last year. But while that double-digit growth looks impressive on paper, there are some concerning undercurrents rumbling beneath the surface.

The latest Counterpoint report has revealed that the biggest driver of Q1's sales surge is plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which combine a gas engine with an electric motor and battery pack. PHEV sales were up a whopping 46% year-over-year as consumers were lured in by their cheaper upfront costs and the ability to switch to gasoline for longer drives.

Meanwhile, sales of pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased at a much more modest 7% clip year-over-year. Demand is softening as the initial wave of early adopters has been largely tapped out and cost-conscious mainstream buyers get sticker shock over high EV prices.

The slowing BEV sales appear to be causing major headaches for automakers who have sunk billions into developing the next generation of electric cars, trucks, and SUVs. Despite the huge investments, some are still losing eye-watering amounts of money on each EV they sell as they struggle to rein in manufacturing costs.

Last month, Ford's EV division alone reported a staggering $1.3 billion loss in Q1 while delivering just 10,000 vehicles - a $132,000 loss per car. It's no wonder Ford and others have been scaling back ambitious BEV targets and pushing harder into the more lucrative PHEV market as a stopgap solution.

The overall EV market remains heavily tilted towards China, which saw sales spike 28% year-over-year in Q1 and now accounts for over half of global EV sales. In the US, growth was a much more modest 2% as higher prices and economic jitters put a damper on demand.

When it comes to individual automakers, there were some definite winners and losers in Q1. BYD had a huge quarter, posting 13% BEV sales growth globally while also dominating the PHEV market with a nearly one-third share. The Chinese upstart capitalized on its cost advantages to capture major market share, including exporting almost 100,000 EVs for 152% year-over-year growth.

In contrast, EV pioneer Tesla saw its sales dip 9% year-over-year despite regaining the overall BEV sales crown with a 19% market share. Tesla has been aggressively slashing prices to move metal, and it recently announced major layoffs impacting over 10% of its global workforce as it looks to cut costs.

The overall outlook for the rest of 2024 remains cloudy. While continued growth is expected, analyst Liz Lee warns "signs of a slowdown also loom and the annual growth may dip below 20%."

Permalink to story:

Plug-in hybrids are driving EV sales growth, but industry faces roadblocks ahead

 

[scavengerspc]

But while that double-digit growth looks impressive on paper, there are some concerning undercurrents rumbling beneath the surface.

Well, maybe in some media, but in the industry itself, it is looked at as a normal ebb and flow.

Anyway, a PHEV is the best of both worlds, and can be an excellent test of smoke pump vs EV ownership.

 

[wiyosaya]

When batteries improve so range anxiety is no longer a problem and charging does not take an hour or more, as well as when prices come down, EVs will sell like hot cakes.

Personally, I bought a 2024 Prius Prime PHEV for those reasons (except price).

I took a trip recently that was over 700 miles, round-trip. Most of that was on gas, however, I found a charging station at my destination, and drove around the area completely on electric while I was there after charging at the charging station. Then home again, on Gas.

I bought the car in January, however, and around my home, I've been mostly driving on electricity. I've only filled the gas tank four times since I bought it.

While I was at my destination, I talked with someone who was driving a Tesla - Model Y, IIRC.
I asked him about managing the charge, and he said it is not that difficult since it is usually easy for him to find a supercharger and charge around driving breaks.

 

[m4a4]

When batteries improve so range anxiety is no longer a problem and charging does not take an hour or more, as well as when prices come down, EVs will sell like hot cakes.

Don't forget mentioning the energy grid. A lot of NA can't properly handle a flood of EV's. Especially not in the summer when certain areas already deal with energy issues...

This is where PHEV's will be the best compromise for a long time to come.

Now, if I can find a reasonably priced one missing a lot of the unecessary/annoying tech (I will not accept a touchscreen over physical buttons in the center console), I might consider it for one of my next vehicles.

 

[wiyosaya]

Don't forget mentioning the energy grid. A lot of NA can't properly handle a flood of EV's. Especially not in the summer when certain areas already deal with energy issues...

This is where PHEV's will be the best compromise for a long time to come.

Good point about the grid - but there are places that are building out the charging grid - for instance, the NY Thruway.

Now, if I can find a reasonably priced one missing a lot of the unecessary/annoying tech (I will not accept a touchscreen over physical buttons in the center console), I might consider it for one of my next vehicles.

My Prime has a touch screen AND a **** load of real, mechanical buttons for everything on the touch screen. Plus, for most things, I can simply use the built-in voice control which works great. I can make phone calls, send text messages, and ask it to read text messages to me, not to mention, tune the radio, turn up/down the volume, among other things.

 

[hwertz]

Yup. I would not even consider an electric vehicle -- the charging infrastructure is just not there yet, and I don't want to have to plan my trips around where the electric stations are then hope they are not full, that they aren't broken, and so on.

On the other hand... in town my trips are short enough, I could plug it into the 120V outlet (my car port has a floodlight with an outlet on it) and keep it topped up. I would not bother spending the cash for a 240V (or 480V 3-phase?) charger. And I wouldn't have to, if I drove a little heavier than normal one week and the overnight charging didn't keep up, so what, I'll burn a small amount of gas that week.

I have a 2013 Chevy Cruze now, I was REALLY looking at getting a Volt but (at least at that time) the used price on them was insane. Getting even 15 miles range would cover my local driving (the older Volts got about 40 and the newer ones about 50), and I could just keep buying gas on a long trip. (And, at least specifically on the Volt, you could tell it you're going on a long trip, and instead of running the electric power down in like 50 miles or whatever, then getting like 40-50MPG off the gas in the like 4 gallon gas tank, it'll do 100+MPG for 400-500 miles by blending the electric and gas power from the start (at which point it's out of gas and electric power, so you gas up and get 40-50MPG for the rest of your trip if you don't plug it in anywhere.))

Oh, AND (some people who wanted to use 0 gas bitched up a storm about this but...) assuming you start the car and drive it around at all, it will make sure it burns through the gas every 6 months (so it burns through like 0.75-1 gallon a month fuel) to make sure you don't end up with stale gas clogging up the tank. (My parent's friend got a Pacifica hybrid and ran into that issue -- they drove it around town for like a year, once they finally went on a long trip it attempted to start the engine.. it wouldn't run at all because the 1+ year old fuel had fouled and clogged up the whole fuel system.)

In summary, no interest in electrics, the range anxiety is the real deal. But a plug-in hybrid would be perfect for my use, and I think they're probably a good solution for a lot of people.

 

[mbk34]

Now, if I can find a reasonably priced one missing a lot of the unecessary/annoying tech (I will not accept a touchscreen over physical buttons in the center console), I might consider it for one of my next vehicles.

Perhaps look at getting a Kia Niro EV. It has buttons and looks like a normal vehicle inside and out. Range is 280 miles and it's fairly sporty for an SUV style. It also has a 7 year guarantee. I'd be quite content with one myself as I almost never drive that sort of distance in a day and I could charge it overnight at home once week which would make most of my driving almost free.

 

[hwertz]

Perhaps look at getting a Kia Niro EV. It has buttons and looks like a normal vehicle inside and out. Range is 280 miles and it's fairly sporty for an SUV style. It also has a 7 year guarantee. I'd be quite content with one myself as I almost never drive that sort of distance in a day and I could charge it overnight at home once week which would make most of my driving almost free.

Seconded. My parents have a Kia Niro Hybrid, and the interior is COMPLETELY conventional. It does have a touch screen but you can use the vehicle without having to touch it at all, there are plenty of buttons and knobs to operate the radio, heating and cooling, etc., without ever touching it. If you WANT to you can use the screen to do these things.

The EV interior looks the same, they replaced the gear shift with a knob and I think removed the tachometer from the instrument cluster. It appears to have the same array of buttons and knobs their hybrid has.

I agree 100%! I really don't like the move toward expecting people to take their eyes off the road to screw around with a touch screen, and the Niro does nicely avoid this.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

To paraphrase the late great Isaac Asimov:

"EVs anywhere brighten the light of clean energy everywhere".

China is such a massive contributor to just pollution, nevermind any climate change stuff, that I cheer every step they take in the right direction. It will ultimately benefit us all.

India's next.

 

[p51d007]

The reason China's EV market is booming is because the people don't really have a choice. They are told to buy this or that...OR ELSE.

 

[Eldrach]

Our infrastructure is a good example of it can work just fine (Norway).

We got chargers every 2-3 miles in Southern Norway and every 8-10 in mountain regions. No range anxiety.
Charging takes around 20 min (20-80%), but you usually dont charge that much. You stop for 10 min, take a piss - and then you’re off with another 100 miles charged

 

[user556]

Where I live (New Zealand), the newly elected right-wing government has slapped a road user tax on every grid chargeable car. Same rate as heavy diesel SUVs, which is just nuts. This has resulted in a total loss of PHEV sales and a collapsed secondhand market in a mere couple of months. No one wants to drive something that is double taxed.

Full EVs are still selling, but at a slower rate. At least these have a big enough battery to still run from a solar charger and thereby only have to pay for road user tax.

 

[Endymio]

...you usually dont charge that much. You stop for 10 min, take a piss - and then you’re off with another 100 miles charged

A 10 minute charge takes about 15 minutes when one accounts for getting to the charger, coupling/decoupling, payment, etc. Most people find it inconvenient to stop for 15 minutes every 100 miles.

And of course this doesn't account for time spent waiting for the charger itself. Market Research firm McKinsey states that queuing and wait times are a perennial problem for Norway's charging network.

Where I live (New Zealand), the newly elected right-wing government has slapped a road user tax on every grid chargeable car. Same rate as heavy diesel SUVs, which is just nuts.

Roads require maintenance, which -- prior to your RUC (road user license) -- was paid entirely from taxes on petrol. Why should EV users force others to pay for the roads they drive upon?

You're also wrong that the rate is the same as for "heavy" SUVs. All vehicles pay the same rate up to 3500 kg ($76/1K km). It then begins escalating, rising all the way to $352 per 1K km for two-axle vehicles over 9000 km. 4+ axle vehicles pay an even higher rate.

 

[user556]

3500 kg is just nuts. It should be scaled something like every 500 kg. Will need a position for electric motorbikes now too.

 

[scavengerspc]

We got chargers every 2-3 miles in Southern Norway and every 8-10 in mountain regions. No range anxiety. Charging takes around 20 min (20-80%)

Wow, you folks have level 3 chargers in those mountainous areas?
When I go to Eureka Springs, Arkansas for some kick back time, there are chargers in some very remote areas, but level 2, not 3. Impressive.

A 10 minute charge takes about 15 minutes when one accounts for getting to the charger, coupling/decoupling, payment, etc. Most people find it inconvenient to stop for 15 minutes every 100 miles.

And of course this doesn't account for time spent waiting for the charger itself. Market Research firm McKinsey states that queuing and wait times are a perennial problem for Norway's charging network.

All of that really is basically true. But rare in some cases.
I have never seen a queue in almost 4 years with an EV as a second car.
City, middle of nowhere, a pretty good mix of locations.
Arkansas, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Cali. (Should I even count California? They have more charging stations than convenience stores!)

Also, I don't see anything there that doesn't also apply to a smoker.
I have a Ram 2500 and when then time is right, meaning very wrong, I have sat in some lines 2 or 3 deep. Then filling 55 gallons of gasoline takes some time, obviously.
With my EV, I do all that at home while I sleep!

Im waiting for the Ram hybrid in 2025. Have you read about that?

https://www.caranddriver.com/ram/1500-ramcharger

Remember the BMW range extender?

 

[Eldrach]

Wow, you folks have level 3 chargers in those mountainous areas?
When I go to Eureka Springs, Arkansas for some kick back time, there are chargers in some very remote areas, but level 2, not 3. Impressive.

we do indeed - the supercharger network was first developed centrally, then extended to remote areas - so centrally in Norway you quite often see Superchargers with a mix of level 2 and 3 - as they’ve just added some new level 3 chargers as they became available. But in the remote areas it’s mostly level 3. They’ve begun building level 4 chargers as well, but there’s only a couple of locations so far.

 

[wiyosaya]

All of that really is basically true. But rare in some cases.
I have never seen a queue in almost 4 years with an EV as a second car.
City, middle of nowhere, a pretty good mix of locations.
Arkansas, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Cali. (Should I even count California? They have more charging stations than convenience stores!)

When I was on my trip, I had no wait for an open charger. Even when I came back after charging my car (which I did very quickly after my car app told me it was charged), there were still two chargers open out of eight available. I have not had my PP all that long; other than the two times on my trip, I have charged overnight at home.

I found a great app for my phone called "Charge Point" that lists "Charge Point" chargers in an area and whether they are in use. There is also an "EVGo" app - like the chargers in the article's picture.

Admittedly, I don't have much experience charging on the road at this point, however, it would not surprise me in the least to have some company publish "research" that does not depict the reality of the availability of chargers. (Back in the day when the Gen 2 Prius hit the US Market, some shill firm published a report that claimed that a Hummer was greener over its lifetime than a Prius over its lifetime. That report was resoundingly debunked.) Even on the NY Thruway, the few rest stops I stopped at had no chargers in use. There was, however, a JA with a smoker parked in a spot that was reserved for EVs charging.

 

[wiyosaya]

The reason China's EV market is booming is because the people don't really have a choice. They are told to buy this or that...OR ELSE.

That is regulated by their government - and at least they are trying to do something about it and the pollution fossil fuels contribute. Before the clean air act in the US, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States) there were places in the US that were as bad as China is now. Its obvious you are against government control (me, too, especially the level that occurs in China), and I would not be surprised if you don't think humanity is harming the environment. However, do you like to piss on your neighbors with pollution? Its been widely known for some time that pollution from whatever source has a harmful impact on human health. So, should we all not give a crap what pollution is doing to us in the name of profits and doing whatever the hell your "freedom" tells you it can do?

Without that government control, at least as I see it, people will be all too happy to piss all over each other. Heck, even with government control in the US, there are people that are all too happy to piss all over each other.

There are states in the US that have passed laws that you will only be able to buy an EV in those states at some point. I'm sure they are all your bane of "blue" states, but for me, I'd rather have the cleaner air.

And before you go off on how polluting EVs currently are due to the dirty production of batteries, I'll give you that they have their issues, however, most "experts" agree that EVs are cleaner over their lifetimes than ICEVs are. That said, at some point, batteries will be substantially cleaner than they are.

 

[Dreadcthulhu]

3500 kg is just nuts. It should be scaled something like every 500 kg. Will need a position for electric motorbikes now too.

Basically the damage done to roads by normal passenger vehicles (even large SUV & pickups, or some of the heavy large battery EVs) is a rounding error compared to the wear & tear done by heavy commercial vehicles. 3500 KG seems like a pretty reasonable cut off point for before you need to start collecting extra taxes.

 

[p51d007]

That is regulated by their government - and at least they are trying to do something about it and the pollution fossil fuels contribute.

LOL, and how many new COAL fired power plants are they building again?

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin

 

[scavengerspc]

LOL, and how many new COAL fired power plants are they building again?

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin

I think maybe the point was at least they are finally getting the message.

How China Became the World’s Leader on Renewable Energy

China has achieved stunning growth in its installed renewable capacity over the last two decades, far outpacing the rest of the world. But to end its continued dependence on fossil fuels, it must now move ahead with planned reforms to its national electricity system.

e360.yale.edu