AMD admits to struggling with HD 5000 demand
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red1776
Posts: 5,124 +194
oh i was having a spot of fun guest, but i am serious. I will bet that within two weeks before, or the week of Fermis launch that this 'bad yield' will go away. if TSMC was having yield problems, they would have known it long ago. just watch, when Fermi is launched, 40nm cards will be superfluous.
Adhmuz
Posts: 2,342 +1,186
I kinda like were Red went with this, the whole Nvidia is controlling the 40nm wafer supply to keep ATI from getting to much of a lead. But if they were that clever they would cut the price of their current stock as to be "competitive" with what ATI came out with. I know Nvidia doesn't understand competitive pricing but maybe just maybe someone will tell them one day and they could lower there prices. It only makes sense, your going to get a 5850 for $300 oh wait its out of stock, well the GTX 285 is now only $250 well thats not such a bad deal. But I'm just dreaming here I guess.
dividebyzero
Posts: 4,840 +1,271
Hiya red1776 - I logged in this time (no fun being "Guest"). While TSMC might value nv as a first tier customer, I'd be pretty certain they wouldn't crap all over AMD/ATI regardless of the fact that they will lose at least a portion of their custon to GloFo in future. Might it not be more reasonable to suspect that when ATI ordered their wafers that they thought nvidia might launch Fermi on time and would be looking at splitting potential GPU sales- so simply ordered less to ensure that they weren't carrying excess stock in Q4 (thus improving accounting numbers), and secondly underestimated demand, especially in light of having the DX11 playing field for themselves. Logical or no ?
red1776
Posts: 5,124 +194
Hi dividebyzero, and welcome to Techspot
I absolutely do think your position is well thought out and completely plausible, as a matter of fact, i had the thought that AMD would choose to launch now (even with limited supply) to make the bottom line look better at the end of fiscal. so yes I have had the same line of thought. the thing that bothers me (and gets me to my conspiratorial theory) is that 40 nm is not new to TMSC. I really think that shortly after the Christmas season, and when Fermi is about to go public, the 'bad yield will go away.
tell ya what, after Fermi launches, if i am wrong....I will buy you a beer!
Even with few products on the market, they are making a lot of profit now. The cards are selling as fast as they are making them and they also sell them for a higher than expected price. But they need to increase yields by the end of this year or at least by the end of January or NVIDIA will be able to catch up to them fast. It all depends on how fast and how good Fermi is.
dividebyzero
Posts: 4,840 +1,271
red1776 said:
Hi dividebyzero, and welcome to Techspot
I absolutely do think your position is well thought out and completely plausible, as a matter of fact, i had the thought that AMD would choose to launch now (even with limited supply) to make the bottom line look better at the end of fiscal. so yes I have had the same line of thought. the thing that bothers me (and gets me to my conspiratorial theory) is that 40 nm is not new to TMSC. I really think that shortly after the Christmas season, and when Fermi is about to go public, the 'bad yield will go away.
tell ya what, after Fermi launches, if i am wrong....I will buy you a beer!
It will be interesting for sure.
My reasoning revolves around the supposedly published material regarding 40nm yields- I think the figure bandied around is 40%- if this is the case (and assuming nvidia/AMD are split equally on wafers) then even with a 100% yield that would mean 2.5 times the HD5xxx in the OEM/retail channel. Would this satisfy demand ?
Secondly, TSMC are themselves quoted as saying that their yields are around 60%* (inferring 1.7 times the availability at 100% yield-which is definitely under the consumer demand) (* source EETimes et al).
Lastly, I'm pretty sure the Altera FGPA contract with TSMC is also 40nm and they haven't reported yield issues, so I agree with you that the yield issue is most likely a bit of a whipping-boy- I just find it a little easier to believe that AMD under-ordered due to the sea of red ink they swim in rather than nvidia putting the squeeze on TSMC, especially as the 40nm GPU market accounts for approx 4% of TSMC's business. If nvidia can do that then what could Altera, Broadcomm, Qualcomm, Marvell, LSI etc do ?
Anyhow, as you say, time will tell. I (and everyone else I think) need both the products and the competition that it brings.Have a great thanksgiving.
And TomSEA...glad to oblige!
sky_could_fall
Posts: 14 +0
I`m a Radeon user too. I have 4770 and I`m very pleased with it. I think AMD didn`t count that there new GPU would be soo popular. If nVidia doesn`t come up with "famous" Fermi they will be loosing lots of bucks because the Xmass fever will be over when they finally put Fermi in the market.
I have a 3870X2 and when I bought it it was the same issue. The card was unavailable on the market so I had to wait weeks. By the way Nvidia's situation was the same. The 9800GTX and GX2 were the brand new cards at that time but it appeared only at reviewer's sites not in shops.
Razerblade
Posts: 117 +1
This is not good for AMD at all! These are some of the best cards around and they need to sell as many as possible. Nvidia will soon bring out a better card which means all the sales for the 5000 range will move to the new Nvidia Series!
slh28
Posts: 1,703 +172
I don't think it's a big deal that AMD have supply shortages in the run up to Xmas, I mean a graphics card isn't exactly a stocking filler for your family & friends, but something that you buy for yourself. But what would be a problem for AMD is if the GT300's turn out to be faster and come to the market sooner than expected.
Still, I guess it's good that AMD aren't raising their prices because they have no competition in the high-end segment, which is not something that could be said about NVIDIA over the last few years...
Still, I guess it's good that AMD aren't raising their prices because they have no competition in the high-end segment, which is not something that could be said about NVIDIA over the last few years...
BlackIrish
Posts: 79 +0
I'm in the same boat as you are - the only problem is that I can't buy the new card (even with the inflated price) because what would I do then with the old 4850 card? If I sell it, I would get like what, $60-70?
it's interesting to see that even western countries have supply shortages for hardware once in a while. for us 2nd grade citizens of the world (croatia, europe) it's a every day reality. the funny thing is that we actualy have enough of 5000 series on the market. even 5970, probably becouse nobody wants to buy them at prices of 900$.
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