That will be very important I agree. But I think 'qualitatively' Apple's Appstore is far superior, so 'quantity' doesn't mean much. It is just like the bigger an animal is, the bigger dump it will ............you know what I mean.
I think the real threats are forking out of android (Amazon has proved that it can be done and successfully at that), and secondly (but less likely) Google putting all its eggs in one basket i.e. Motorola. Even if Google keeps all the patents (reason for the purchase in the first place) and try to sell the rest, I am unable to see any viable buyer right now, that means Google in all probability end up investing more to stay competitive, which in turn will again mean other manufacturers will want to keep a distance to protect their interests. Not an easy situation to be in right now.
I remember posting another article stating Google's alleged 'theft' of patents regarding its ads business, and if (supposedly) they lose this case, well Google will be in deep sh*t.
In the last few months I have been thinking what if FB decides to expand in other domains, guess what, they are e.g. just like that stock thing they are going to do. Now suppose, if they decide to go further and add 'search' to their offering that will put Google in great peril. I think 'search' as a business (i.e. ads) has reached where it could that is why Google is so desperate to get a foothold in social side of the things. In all probability, Apple's success means many now think that they can create their own 'walled' garden, and be successful at that.
To sum it up, I feel Jay is spot on:
" iPhone owners can boast about all the latest, greatest stuff Apple has in its OS. Android users are stuck with an OS that's a year behind."
Anyway, as things stands I will not be surprised if all big manufacturer's start to build their own flavor of android based on e.g. ICS foundations with their own UI; Google simply can't stop them. Couple that with fragmentation of the OS[i.e. devices still running older versions] due to either a) manufacturer's refusal/slowness to upgrade, b) consumer loosing interest to buy new devices to get new OS; and Apple's strategy of expanding its reach by allying with more carriers and one get the picture.
Lastly, IF MS doesn't update current WP devices to WP8, it too will commit the same sin, thereby creating fragmentation and lots of disgruntled WP smartphone owners, who may never buy their newer offerings.
Edit:
Here is an other article from
Andrew Orlowski @ The Register, very good read detailing how Google 'choose' to steal IP of Oracle/Sun instead of negotiating a license. TBH it is astonishing to see how an OS with stolen IP + stolen UI ideas (plus the fact it is free) became so successful.
