Cities stand to lose billions in taxes thanks to work-from-home, analysts sound alarm

Cal Jeffrey

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Big quotes: As telecommuting become the "new norm" for American workers, municipal governments and economic analysts are hitting the panic button.
"Remote work is poised to devastate America's cities." — New York Magazine.
"The 'office apocalypse' is upon us." — Business Insider.
"[We're entering a] work from home and the office real estate apocalypse." — National Bureau of Economic Research.

According to economic analysts, the growing work-from-home trend is "devastating" US cities. With nearly a third of the workforce working remotely, employers find little reason to keep their physical offices open. Tax revenue in large cities like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco plummeted as companies began shuttering offices. Meta closed shop on 450,000 square feet of office space in New York alone.

New York Magazine points out that property taxes account for a majority (one-third) of New York City's revenue, and office buildings make up a fifth of that source. To put that in perspective, one of the city's most lucrative tax districts, Manhattan, experienced a $5.24 billion decline in tax revenue since 2019.

Even switching to hybrid work schedules has not helped much. The New York State Comptroller reported that financial services firms in New York City only have 56 percent of their staff in the office during any given day of the week. This shift contributed to a 56.3-percent dip in the securities industry's pretax revenue — a $17.5 billion loss in taxable profits. The problem doesn't stop at property and corporate taxes, either.

Mass transit has taken a significant hit. The pandemic crippled the commuting industry. It has rebounded somewhat but still has not recovered to pre-covid levels thanks to fewer workers needing to report to the office physically. Ridership is still down 30 percent from 2019. Many transit systems were already operating with thin margins, so it's unclear how long some can hold out.

Likewise, foot traffic has dramatically declined. Local shops are losing the frequent stops for lattes and cocktails from surrounding businesses and foot traffic now that more workers are homebound. This situation created a triple whammy for New York City.

The Big Apple lost a significant slice of money from sales tax — wham. Many shops went bankrupt and closed shop, flushing corporate and payroll taxes down the toilet — wham. Now, property owners struggle to fill those vacancies, leading to a sharp decline in property values and thus decreased property taxes — wham.

And the situation is no better on the west coast. Office vacancy rates in San Francisco, the heart of Silicon Valley, are hovering around 34-40 percent, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Meta, Google, Salesforce, Airbnb, Twilio, and others have all dumped unused office space to cut costs.

Some analysts suggest cities convert offices into housing, reasoning that reasonably priced occupied apartments are better than expensive but empty offices. However, "better than nothing" will not likely satisfy local governments. The tax deficit caused by enterprise-to-consumer conversion will inevitably lead to higher income taxes for the working class. There is no win-win scenario.

It would seem that the grand experiment that was the unprecedented shutdown of the American economy has lasting adverse effects. Now the very government agencies that called for the drastic action are in a panic over how to close Pandora's Box.

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Oh no, won’t somebody please think of the corporate landlords?!

I note this article doesn’t mention the uptick in local economic activity? While city centres took a hit (in the UK), there was a noticeable increase within local businesses.

The money still gets spent, it’s just at the local coffee shop instead of the corporate chains that monopolise modern city centres.
 
Incorrect article. work from home is not the problem here.

the problem statement here is 1/2 correct: cities loose billions in taxes
the problem is NOT due to work from home.

companies are closing office space and getting rid of it. This has been a LONG time coming. office space is completely USELESS. years ago it was necessary most of the time. now with technology it is no longer needed to do many jobs. Office space is expensive and the pressure to constantly beat wall street analyst estimates is what drives companies. NOT quality, NOT the customer, its the share price.

NOW - if you really want to write an article on WHY cities are loosing billions of dollars in taxes; how about check out american progress.

what is the middle class tax rate these days?? well thats become a bit more complicated since the previous ... "administration" ... but it basically works out to be 22% of YOUR income.

for 2021 here are the effective federal tax rates for the following companies:
amazon: 6.1%
exxon mobil: 2.8%
at&t: -4.1% (yes thats a NEGATIVE)
JP Morgan (Chase bank): 5.9%
Ford: 1%
Chevron: 0.2%
MetLife: 1.3%
General Motors: 0.2%

how about you FIX the tax system, close these corporate loopholes and actually make these massive companies pay their fair share in taxes?

you might say well they will just jack up their prices.
so I say vote with your wallet. don't pay the premium for some of this crap. supply and demand will force the price down.

MAYBE, they would be forced to lower the MASSIVE salaries they pay their C levels instead hmm?? exactly how many houses and yachts does 1 family need? is 3 enough?
 
Incorrect article. work from home is not the problem here.

the problem statement here is 1/2 correct: cities loose billions in taxes
the problem is NOT due to work from home.

companies are closing office space and getting rid of it. This has been a LONG time coming. office space is completely USELESS. years ago it was necessary most of the time. now with technology it is no longer needed to do many jobs. Office space is expensive and the pressure to constantly beat wall street analyst estimates is what drives companies. NOT quality, NOT the customer, its the share price.

NOW - if you really want to write an article on WHY cities are loosing billions of dollars in taxes; how about check out american progress.

what is the middle class tax rate these days?? well thats become a bit more complicated since the previous ... "administration" ... but it basically works out to be 22% of YOUR income.

for 2021 here are the effective federal tax rates for the following companies:
amazon: 6.1%
exxon mobil: 2.8%
at&t: -4.1% (yes thats a NEGATIVE)
JP Morgan (Chase bank): 5.9%
Ford: 1%
Chevron: 0.2%
MetLife: 1.3%
General Motors: 0.2%

how about you FIX the tax system, close these corporate loopholes and actually make these massive companies pay their fair share in taxes?

you might say well they will just jack up their prices.
so I say vote with your wallet. don't pay the premium for some of this crap. supply and demand will force the price down.

MAYBE, they would be forced to lower the MASSIVE salaries they pay their C levels instead hmm?? exactly how many houses and yachts does 1 family need? is 3 enough?
Don't shoot the messenger. Just reporting about the analysts ringing the alarm.
 
Oh no, won’t somebody please think of the corporate landlords?!

I note this article doesn’t mention the uptick in local economic activity? While city centres took a hit (in the UK), there was a noticeable increase within local businesses.

The money still gets spent, it’s just at the local coffee shop instead of the corporate chains that monopolise modern city centres.

Exactly. I'm not going to go cry a river for fricking Pret or the like, especially when it means the local butcher's etc. is finally seeing a reverse in fortunes.
 
This has been coming for a while, people simply aren't going back and lots of companies are happy to not pay high corporate rent in big cities, instead they choose smaller spaces like maybe renting a conference room for in-person meetings. Eventually prices will drop enough for some to rent again but the landscape has drastically changed. Big cities are bleeding tax payers of all types, not sure short term recovery is possible, what are they going to do, lower taxes? Not likely
 
Well maybe the landlords can drop the prices - it rents/leases fall in city centres around the world - more fun edge case shops can pop up.
Look at city centres in NYC, London in 60s/70s when there were cheap places - lots of cool shops, music venues etc
There is a reason only the Mega chains can survive in high rent cities or expensive popular malls .

This would help the mum & pop cafes etc

Unfortunately when a cool area becomes popular the landlords can't help themselves to squeeze out the shops that gave them capital gain and good returns

tl/dr cheap rent makes for fun areas - high rent makes for boring "all the same shops" - as all other expensive places
 
I would think work from home would help the economy more than hurt it. It reduces gas consumption, which helps keep the price down, helping the economy.

The internet has made working from home possible, just like it made it possible to rent movies from home. Nobody is crying because the video rental stores closed. This is really no different. People just need to adapt and move forward. It's not a problem. It's progress.
 
HAHAHAHA....the government rapists are hurting after decades of being spoiled by outrageous taxation. How about they CUT SPENDING to balance budgets? ***** politicians find it easy to spend our money on absolute garbage - time to start cutting the fat and NOT increasing other taxes. Folks with a D behind their name won't be happy until ALL income is confiscated and redistributed according to "need"....it's call communism.
 
Oh no, won’t somebody please think of the corporate landlords?!

Precisely .. eff them and eff anyone against WFH *where it makes sense* ...

If you are only concerned about TAXES .. you are just a fat cat scum bag living off the work of others ... you know COMMUNISIM ...

 
They will just transfer the loss to the general public.
Of course, folks like you are blind to the corporate world and how capitalism works which is why so many of the ignorant are rallying for socialism. There is no better system on earth than capitalism, the USA proved that.
It's the cool thing to do to trash the US and of course capitalism. Of course the majority that do are underage children / young adults who are still early in their carrier and don't have real world experience. Always interesting how as people get older they eventually become more conservative and realize what dreamers they were when they were younger.
 
They will just transfer the loss to the general public.
It's the cool thing to do to trash the US and of course capitalism. Of course the majority that do are underage children / young adults who are still early in their carrier and don't have real world experience. Always interesting how as people get older they eventually become more conservative and realize what dreamers they were when they were younger.

Sir, this is a tech site.
 
As it should be, cities are littered with trash, traffic, and homelessness. No one wants to commute to the office. It’s bad for the environment too. Imagine all the land that can be reclaimed if we worked from home. Imagine all the pollution and waste saved from cars (gas, tires, oil, etc). Let the cities shrink. Will be a shake up short-term but much better for the world in the long run.
 
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All of this would not happen if some country kept its **** together and had working precautions in med labs.
All of this is a result of one specific country and its negligence handling viruses.
Lets not forget about that.
Despite many people disagreeing with the choice of previous president, life, economy went well until that virus ruined economies and killed millions of people worldwide.
And I wouldnt feel so negative about China if at least they did not pretend it was not their fault.
Lying deceitful mafia crooks they are.
 
HAHAHAHA....the government rapists are hurting after decades of being spoiled by outrageous taxation. How about they CUT SPENDING to balance budgets? ***** politicians find it easy to spend our money on absolute garbage - time to start cutting the fat and NOT increasing other taxes. Folks with a D behind their name won't be happy until ALL income is confiscated and redistributed according to "need"....it's call communism.

City tax revenue is necessary to do stuff like… manage sewers? Repair roads… run schools? Massive citywide deficits are a massive problem to everyone, and slashing budgets cannot be a replacement for a functioning system of taxation and good planning and strategy of city development, both of which the pandemic has hit with massive paradigm shifts. The US is particularly vulnerable because city planning has tended to be **** (pardon my French, but as a civil engineer specialising in planning that’s my hot take), with a model heavily dependant on subsidising non functioning suburban developments by building more of them (aka pissing in your pants to keep warm), and subsidising them through a heavy dependence on large tax revenues from the city centre, including earning more on low income neighbourhoods than they spend maintaining and developing them. Take away the city centre and most American cities have about 0 net positive things in them from a tax revenue standpoint, meaning they’re… well even more ****ed than they already were. ‘Fiscal responsibility’ (a term I’ve never heard used in conjunction with actually useful policy suggestions) will not help here except to deprive cities of resources they need to actually change their malfunctioning systems, which will be quite expensive (not that most of them are currently trying in the US, but well)…

Also eh… you might want to not call everyone sitting in government rapists and compare them to communists if you want to be taken seriously 😉 most of them probably aren’t rapists, as it’s hard to keep secrets like that when entering politics, and even the ones who have some semi-communist views, such as Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, are mostly just mislabelling social democracy, one of the most common and successful approaches to governing in Europe, as democratic socialism… which is communism where you’re allowed to vote. So yea they’re not communists either lol. In fact many American democrats are neo-libs, which is pretty much the opposite of being communist x) much more so than conservatism is.
 
Any public servant who is claiming these are bad trends has lost sight of the plot.

In a world with plenty of housing, pollution, resource and other challenges, the elimination of needing a second dedicated office (vs. home) space for each worker, plus their commute, is a pure positive.

And if all those workers are no longer present in their city, surely the need for city services for them has also been reduced? That is what they were spending the tax revenues on, right?

I am sympathetic that even very positive changes can be painful in the interim transition period though.
 
I don't know who writes the headlines / sub-headlines here -- on other sites it often is the site editors vs the article author -- but its the "Let's shutdown the economy, what could possibly go wrong?" headline that seems particularly off-tone here.

Declining tax revenues from services that declined *because they are no longer needed* does not scream to me that anything is going wrong. It means there is more money available to spend on things that still are actually needed, as well as reduced externalities like pollution, non-renewable fuel consumption, etc.

If we are lucky enough to see a cure for cancer this decade, would the headline be about hospitals facing a revenue apocalypse?
 
There's only one outcome to depopulation of major urban areas: the creation of slums. You cannot find a single example where significant parts of a US city were de-urbanized and allowed to go "back to nature". They want to try this in Detroit but last I heard its not getting traction. This is because engaging in this kind of operation requires - you guessed it - public funding, which means that depopulation of cities is a huge catch-22. The big corporations will always base their production facilities wherever they can get the best combination of workforce and reduced operating expenses (and their HQs will be based somewhere not far from gated communities and a swinging nightlife). If you start incentivizing companies to spread their operations to less densely populated areas you'll create an even *bigger* tax shortfall. But there's something both liberals and conservatives both agree on whether they know it or not: The US corporate tax code is garbage, and it absolutely rewards the ruling elite for offshoring jobs or keeping them in big urban areas even when the state taxes are horrible. You'll make twice as much working the same job in the middle of Chicago as you would in rural Virginia, but the cost of living will only be about 75% higher in the big city. You're still ahead to seek your fortune in the concrete jungle. How do we roll things back to the America of the late 50's? Considering that the petrodollar is now worth about 12 cents (32 trillion in debt will do that) I doubt it would even matter if we did reform the tax code. It would take 100% of the wealth of three generations of Americans to pay that down to a manageable level. I believe that a controlled global financial reset is being planned by the western elite and all of the little people are going to lose pretty much everything. IMHO your best investment right now is a self-sufficient cabin deep in the woods and non-perishable resources to stock it with. Be sure you include ammunition.
 
So, why are cities not demanding to convert empty office buildings into apartment blocks?
Lowers the need for housing in cities and maybe even the price of real estate (rental & buying).
Stupid offices are not needed anymore; turn them into living areas, with shops and apartments and green areas and/or even green roofs with vegetables, etc.
 
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