DRAM prices are expected to fall in the coming months due to oversupply

nanoguy

Posts: 1,021   +14
Staff member
In brief: DRAM prices climbed during the first half of this year, but it looks like that trend is about to reverse. PC and server manufacturers now have enough stockpiles to last for more than two months, so prices will likely decrease as a result of the oversupply.

TrendForce's latest market report is in, and it looks like DRAM prices have not only stabilized, but they're expected to decline in the coming months by anywhere from three to right percent on average as a result of excess inventory buildup.

The report notes that if the current trajectory is maintained, memory shipments will slow down in the fourth quarter, as DRAM clients have been stockpiling a higher-than-expected level of DRAM inventory and DRAM suppliers are now overspilling with memory waiting to be delivered.

This is in stark contrast with the situation observed in the first two quarters, when Micron's chief warned that DRAM shortages were threatening to send prices through the roof. As more people got vaccinated, demand for PCs, tablets, and smartphones has remained relatively stable, but most industry experts agree there will be a slowdown in the coming years.

  Q3 2021 Q4 2021
PC DRAM up 3-8 percent down 5-10 percent
Server DRAM up 5-10 percent down 0-5 percent
Mobile DRAM up 5-15 percent mostly flat
Graphics DRAM up 10-15 percent down 0-5 percent
Consumer DRAM (DDR3) up 8-13 percent down 3-8 percent
Consumer DRAM (DDR4) up 3-8 percent down 5-10 percent
Total DRAM up 3-8 percent down 3-8 percent

TrendForce analysts offered a breakdown by market segment for their Q4 2021 price estimates. PC memory prices are expected to decline by anywhere from five to 10 percent, and even graphics memory prices could see a five percent dip in the coming months. Server DRAM suppliers have enough stock for over 10 weeks of shipments, which could exert a similar amount of pressure on server memory prices.

That said, market conditions can change at any time, and this report doesn't give us any hints about DDR5 RAM prices. In a previous analysis, TrendForce estimated that in 2022, the average price of DDR5 memory will sit around 30 percent higher than that of DDR4 memory, but this will mostly be felt by data center operators.

Furthermore, the availability and pricing of graphics cards and many other electronics depends on more than just chips. For instance, even the lowly multi-layer ceramic capacitor is harder to come by. And now that rare earth metal prices have exploded, everything with electronics in it has a high chance of becoming costlier in the near future.

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Lionvibez

Posts: 2,483   +2,120
Memory prices are so up and down over the course of the year buy as much as you can when its low.

I just recently went from 16GB to 32GB myself.
 

noel24

Posts: 773   +963
RAM on sale, SSDs on sale, PSUs on sale, everything on sale except GPUs. And some dare to say that miners are not to blame for shortages and hiked prices.
 

Lionvibez

Posts: 2,483   +2,120
RAM on sale, SSDs on sale, PSUs on sale, everything on sale except GPUs. And some dare to say that miners are not to blame for shortages and hiked prices.

lol yup over the course of the year I've been upgrading and adding stuff to my machine other than a gpu and I don't think I can do much more on it now. gotta start looking to add hard drives to my NAS.
 

Kosmoz

Posts: 462   +814
Do miners also hog the PS5s then?
One does not exclude the other. Mining does greatly affect GPUs prices and availability, but not consoles.

There are multiple factors for both, but mining is an extra big factor for GPUs alone.

One would have to be very narrow minded not to see these differences.
 

Beerfloat

Posts: 326   +579
One does not exclude the other. Mining does greatly affect GPUs prices and availability, but not consoles.

There are multiple factors for both, but mining is an extra big factor for GPUs alone.

One would have to be very narrow minded not to see these differences.
What GPUs and consoles have in common, unlike your RAM, SSDs and PSUs, is cutting edge semiconductor fabrication. I can see it is on trend to rope miners into this but clearly the main issue is this strained supply chain.
 

Daniele 00

Posts: 135   +111
Recently these photos in techspot are so blurry I can hardly read anything.
. . . when photography goes offroad lol.

going back in topic, I'm happy for the good news but I hardly believe it will make any impact on video card price... nor in the wallet of these willing to buy a new rig.
 

noel24

Posts: 773   +963
Do miners also hog the PS5s then?
Where I live, PS5 is available now and then with 20% premium. GPUs are either unavailable or show up with 100% premium. So I would say people jumped consoles when They lost hope to game on PC.
 

Beerfloat

Posts: 326   +579
I guess you missed the part where a whole warehouse found with ps4s used for mining as well as other warehouses filled with laptops. What would make the ps5 any different? Does it hash lite?
Oh. Well. There's no arguing against the relevance of that anecdote.
I guess the misuse of console hardware for mining is everywhere now. Someone should really take urgent action.
 

captaincranky

Posts: 17,682   +6,462
That's great that the price of RAM is expected to drop. (y) (Y)

I just have one little question. WTF are you going to put it in, that doesn't cost twice as much as it did last year? :confused:-
 

Markoni35

Posts: 1,318   +534
Sure the prices will drop. As the Bitcoin peak has passed, and now the secondary aftershock has passed too, the following aftershocks are getting smaller and smaller, with lower and lower return. Soon the ROI will become negative, and mining rigs will be dismantled.