GTA VI and Switch 2 projected to increase video game spending despite tariffs

[Daniel Sims]

In a nutshell: Although spending on PC and console games declined slightly last year, and older titles take up the most playtime, analysts expect Nintendo and Rockstar to contribute to strong industry growth over the next few years. The optimism comes despite the recent announcement of historically high US tariffs that some analysts say will increase prices and lower sales expectations.

Recent market reports from Newzoo and DFC Intelligence predict that US tariffs will slow but not stop PC and console game spending over the next few years. The Nintendo Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, arriving in 2025, are expected to reverse recent industry stagnation.

Newzoo's annual PC and console gaming report states (via Eurogamer) that overall spending fell two percent to $80.2 billion last year, continuing the sluggishness seen since the pandemic boost wore off. Although older free-to-play and live-service games dominate the PC market, new premium-priced titles like GTA 6 and the recently announced Nintendo Switch 2's launch lineup could help console sector revenue reach $85.2 billion in 2025 and $92.7 billion in 2027.

However, rising game prices might impact that growth. While analysts have theorized that Rockstar Games could get away with selling GTA 6 for up to $100, Nintendo recently pushed the envelope by announcing an $80 price tag for Mario Kart World, the Switch 2's flagship launch title. Nintendo blamed inflation for its decision to charge $450 for the upcoming hybrid console but paused pre-orders in North America after the White House announced severe worldwide tariffs.

Some of the worst duties impact Vietnam (46 percent), Japan (24 percent), and Cambodia (49 percent). Furthermore, President Trump recently increased anti-China tariffs to a staggering 104 percent. The import taxes would compound for Switch 2 and many other devices built with components from these and other countries.

Meanwhile, DFC Intelligence estimates (perhaps optimistically) that the new handheld's price could rise by 20 percent over the next two years, increasing to $530. Nintendo has already shipped numerous Switch 2 units to the US ahead of the tariffs, but how long they will last remains to be seen.

The research firm expects Nintendo to sell around 15 million units before the end of 2025 – down from an initial projection of 17 million but still unprecedented for the company. In comparison, the original Switch, Wii, and PlayStation 4 took over a year to reach 15 million.

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GTA VI and Switch 2 projected to increase video game spending despite tariffs

 

[Theinsanegamer]

If consumers embrace the higher prices and greed, then they will get exactly what they deserved.

 

[yRaz]

If consumers embrace the higher prices and greed, then they will get exactly what they deserved.

I'm a value oriented consumer and I have mixed feelings about this. My general rule is I want 50 cents an hour for gameplay and I've had that rule for probably 20 years now. Inflation is very real, but gaming companies also have record numbers of people to sell games to. Thing is, I had like 3000 hours in CoD4 and paid $60 for that. I see GTA6 as maybe a 200 hour game as the online side of GTA5 did basically nothing for me.

I would reluctantly accept games going from $60 to $70. GTA6 is going to be just be a $100 game, it's going to set a precedent where everyone thinks their games are worth $100

 

[Theinsanegamer]

I'm a value oriented consumer and I have mixed feelings about this. My general rule is I want 50 cents an hour for gameplay and I've had that rule for probably 20 years now. Inflation is very real, but gaming companies also have record numbers of people to sell games to. Thing is, I had like 3000 hours in CoD4 and paid $60 for that. I see GTA6 as maybe a 200 hour game as the online side of GTA5 did basically nothing for me.

I would reluctantly accept games going from $60 to $70. GTA6 is going to be just be a $100 game, it's going to set a precedent where everyone thinks their games are worth $100

These corpos are already setting up record profit regardless of market conditions. They are SWIMMING in cash.

The move to make games $70, or $80, or $100 is driven primarily by greed. The same type of greed that leads to EA trying to push ads in full price games alongside microtransactions and lootboxes and season passes.

MK8 has sold over 60 million copies, at $60, the vast majority digital copies. That is $3.6 BILLION in revenue, not counting all the revenue from selling the new tracks. They dont need to charge $80 for the next game, it did not cost billions to make. Not even close.

If anything, games should be cheaper, not just because of the ruthless monetization, but because we have been stripped of our ownership of titles via digital releases, and games now need years after launch to be feature complete.

 

[yRaz]

These corpos are already setting up record profit regardless of market conditions. They are SWIMMING in cash.

The move to make games $70, or $80, or $100 is driven primarily by greed. The same type of greed that leads to EA trying to push ads in full price games alongside microtransactions and lootboxes and season passes.

MK8 has sold over 60 million copies, at $60, the vast majority digital copies. That is $3.6 BILLION in revenue, not counting all the revenue from selling the new tracks. They dont need to charge $80 for the next game, it did not cost billions to make. Not even close.

If anything, games should be cheaper, not just because of the ruthless monetization, but because we have been stripped of our ownership of titles via digital releases, and games now need years after launch to be feature complete.

Monetization in full priced games is unacceptable and the people this is going to hurt the most is smaller devs. The industry giants aren't going to be hurt one bit by this.

I will say that GTA6 has the potential to be a $100, but they're the exception, not the rule. I buy most things on steam sale ANYWAY and games like BG3 that actually value the players time I don't mind paying full price for.

 

[p51d007]

LOL, smartphones, save for the folding ones, have about maxed out the price climb.
I guess these "switch 2" type things are the next thing to start jacking up the price.
Glad I'm past the "need" (age) for gaming consoles.

 

[poohbear]

These corpos are already setting up record profit regardless of market conditions. They are SWIMMING in cash.

The move to make games $70, or $80, or $100 is driven primarily by greed. The same type of greed that leads to EA trying to push ads in full price games alongside microtransactions and lootboxes and season passes.

MK8 has sold over 60 million copies, at $60, the vast majority digital copies. That is $3.6 BILLION in revenue, not counting all the revenue from selling the new tracks. They dont need to charge $80 for the next game, it did not cost billions to make. Not even close.

If anything, games should be cheaper, not just because of the ruthless monetization, but because we have been stripped of our ownership of titles via digital releases, and games now need years after launch to be feature complete.

lol @ "corpos". Cyberpunk 2077 much? The scary thing is that a lot of things in Cyberpunk 2077 look very real in the near future. Oligarch corpo governments? Check. Rogue AI on the horizon? Check. Hired guns for corpos to buy anytime? Check.

As James Cameron said in an interview: "It's getting very hard to write sci-fi these days".

 

[Thatsdisgusting]

lol @ "corpos". Cyberpunk 2077 much? The scary thing is that a lot of things in Cyberpunk 2077 look very real in the near future. Oligarch corpo governments? Check. Rogue AI on the horizon? Check. Hired guns for corpos to buy anytime? Check.

As James Cameron said in an interview: "It's getting very hard to write sci-fi these days".

I was terrified when caught myself on a feeling that cp77 at this day and time feels like documentary rather than sci-fi

 

[Puiu]

I don't think gamers will care that much if the games are good. And besides, the world is not just the US

 

[Dimitriid]

Here's the thing: Both these items can be true while the rest of the industry goes bankrupt simultaneously.

If we're talking Switch 2 it makes sense since Nintendo has avoided a successor to their console for like 8 years and it was already kinda underpowered at the original Switch Launch: they've sacrificed a lot more console sales and many modern games up until now for the sake of having most of their uses agree they need an upgrade instead of being forced into one needlessly ahead of schedule like Sony and Microsoft (And Nvidia and AMD) do.

In the case of GTA 6 it's been well over a decade as well: of course a lot of the player base eagerly awaits a new installment (My hot take is that RDR2 does not count: it's a different game in a different setting a lot less people care about compared to how universal GTA is)

So while GTA 6 and Switch 2 can probably launch to record numbers, it's the EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Epic, etc. That will suffer, simply because their constant output of mediocre games will no longer capture even a fraction of the money at the inflated prices and I really do not think they'll actually make better games or control themselves and let consumers rest in between releases and such.

Those parts of the industries will just implode while you'll see indie game renaissance simply because those will be the games people will be able to afford and play on hardware they also can actually afford.

 

[lonetac]

Those parts of the industries will just implode while you'll see indie game renaissance simply because those will be the games people will be able to afford and play on hardware they also can actually afford.

I already pretty much play indie games exclusively for years. AAA games have been so lackluster for so long, whats the point? Just wait for the $10 sale. Unless its something I am super excited about.

Indie games are the sweet spot of gaming. I end up putting 100s of hours on the dumbest cheapest games.

Buy a $70 game and it gets maybe 20 hours out of me and I never play it again.

I would say your assessment is probably correct. Folks are already burned out on the mediocrity and an increased price tag is only going to hurt those devs even more.

 

[toooooot]

Nothing of this would be so hurtful if one communistic regime did not play with a monster in its labs, after previously allowing other similar monsters to escape, and then did not let it out to kill millions of people making hundreds of millions significantly poorer. We should be pushing China away with a very long stick
instead of letting it get bigger and do whatever their aging dictator desires.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

Here's the thing: Both these items can be true while the rest of the industry goes bankrupt simultaneously.

If we're talking Switch 2 it makes sense since Nintendo has avoided a successor to their console for like 8 years and it was already kinda underpowered at the original Switch Launch: they've sacrificed a lot more console sales and many modern games up until now for the sake of having most of their uses agree they need an upgrade instead of being forced into one needlessly ahead of schedule like Sony and Microsoft (And Nvidia and AMD) do.

In the case of GTA 6 it's been well over a decade as well: of course a lot of the player base eagerly awaits a new installment (My hot take is that RDR2 does not count: it's a different game in a different setting a lot less people care about compared to how universal GTA is)

So while GTA 6 and Switch 2 can probably launch to record numbers, it's the EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Epic, etc. That will suffer, simply because their constant output of mediocre games will no longer capture even a fraction of the money at the inflated prices and I really do not think they'll actually make better games or control themselves and let consumers rest in between releases and such.

Those parts of the industries will just implode while you'll see indie game renaissance simply because those will be the games people will be able to afford and play on hardware they also can actually afford.

Did nintendo really "sacrifice more console sales" when the Switch is poised to take the title of "best selling console of all time" from the PS2?

I agree the heart grows fonder in absence, but I think GTA V's biggest success is due to their predatory microtransaction system combined with the MMO style grinding in multiplayer, which has created a community chomping at the bit for more content. If they screw up enough, GTA VI could still disappoint compared to V's sales. It'll be massively profitable regardless.