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the key areas you are talking about have no real value in the long run. it's the reason Nokia lost 90% (not 10 not 20 not 50 but 90%!!!!) of it's value. in 2007 nokia had 250bil $ market value and now MS bought the entire mobile part for about 7.2bil...Did it? I am still in doubt. For example, MS earns almost a billion $ from android makers in lieu of patent fee. Secondly, Motorola is a minor player outside US and some European markets.
On the contrary, Nokia is the major player in two key areas, I.e. for MS it is WP market share, and in addition to that feature phone business. Nokia in fact has been successful in blurring lines between feature and smartphones with their budget Asha line up, which is still doing very good business in Asian markets.
maybe, or Ballmer still buys Nokia and give Bill gates the black color Lumia while Blackberry CEO yelled "why you don't buy from us? why?"
8.1 is just a service pack that they decided to rename into a point release. the changes don't warrant a year of development.History can only serve as a case study for future reference, for learning.
You are spot on about MS being slow on quick releases. But I think they are trying to change that (e.g. release of 8.1 a year after 8). It is achievable provided they cut red tape.
On a side note, it is apparent that for some years, MS's revenue from patent licensing to OEMs will continue to rise and will be greater than their WP sales.
On the android side of things, in few years I expect Koreans to start loosing market share to Chinese manufacturers. The other day I had a chance to try out Huwaei P6, and I felt its quality of construction materials were far better than what e.g. Samsung offers with its plasticky phones. Although, I must say they've heavily copied iOS's UI concepts, but then again it is the case with many other OEMs.