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Report: DRAM, SSD prices will tumble as Intel shortage continues

By LemmingOverlrd ยท 15 replies
Sep 14, 2018
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  1. Another day, another twist in the Intel CPU shortage saga: The shortage of 14nm CPUs, both older and newer silicon, will impact notebook vendors' business outlook, leading to reduced shipments and a consequential drop in DDR4 DRAM prices, said memory research firm DRAMExchange.

    Reviewing its forecasts for notebook shipments, the company predicts a drop of 0.2 percent year-on-year due to Intel's current undersupply. However, this will cause a ripple effect in the memory market, where the research company suggests pricing on DDR4 may come down by about 2 percent, quarter-on-quarter, as the channels fills up with DRAM oversupply. By the same measure, the delay will also cause SSDs to drop in price, in a sympathetic side effect, with a higher impact in the last quarter of 2018.

    DRAMExchange also notes that, as Intel's supply shortage extends into Q4 2018, the notebook supply gap will increase to as much as 10%, and does not expect the shortage to be sorted before the end of the first half of 2019. While the report is short on explanations for the CPU shortage, it is clear that Intel has piled-up all its products - from modems to chipsets to CPUs - on 14nm due to its 10nm delays and is now being pushed hard to deliver on those devices to all its customers.

    In the server market some pressure has been felt as well, with Intel's Purley driving a handful of OEMs to lengthen their production cycles on some of their products. Introduced in late July, just a month-and-a-half-ago, it too is struggling to meet demand.

    If this all comes true, we may yet see a jolly holiday season for the DIY crowd trying to load up their machines on RAM and fast storage.

    Permalink to story.

  2. Manuel Diego

    Manuel Diego TS Booster Posts: 56   +66

    Wow, a well deserved 2% drop in RAM prices, that's gonna change it all! That's a serious "tumble"! /s
    vimann, Stark, pawel04 and 3 others like this.
  3. Lounds

    Lounds TS Addict Posts: 196   +123

    2%, it went up more than 40% in one year!
    Reehahs, 5W33J1N, Stark and 3 others like this.
  4. timespacematter

    timespacematter TS Rookie

    Yeeeeahhh wht a "bigly" drop
    Toju Mikie and ForgottenLegion like this.
  5. fps4ever

    fps4ever TS Evangelist Posts: 305   +301

    Still waiting for these supposedly big drops...
    Stark, cliffordcooley and Toju Mikie like this.
  6. ForgottenLegion

    ForgottenLegion TS Guru Posts: 414   +416

    SSD prices have dropped quite a lot recently, not sure about RAM though.
    fps4ever and Toju Mikie like this.
  7. p51d007

    p51d007 TS Evangelist Posts: 1,966   +1,230

    I'm waiting to see the drop...my laptop is about 5 years old, and is starting to show its age,
    even with an SSD on board. If the prices drop, I'll get a new one, if they don't I'll just hang on
    a while longer.
    Stark and Toju Mikie like this.
  8. fps4ever

    fps4ever TS Evangelist Posts: 305   +301

    Yup, my post was about memory. SSD prices have been good for quite a while. Memory no.
  9. ForgottenLegion

    ForgottenLegion TS Guru Posts: 414   +416

    Not sure how anyone can live with a slow laptop. I'd find it infuriating.
    The machine should work for you and be ready to do the next task when you are. You shouldn't be waiting around for it.

    Just upgrade dude.

    Probably easy for me to say as a tech obsessed nutcase.
    I think the only piece of tech I've resisted buying is the upcoming RTX cards and even then it's early days :p
  10. cliffordcooley

    cliffordcooley TS Guardian Fighter Posts: 11,393   +5,018

    That depends on the task. And not everyone has the luxury of upgrading on a whim.
  11. ForgottenLegion

    ForgottenLegion TS Guru Posts: 414   +416

    A new car, coffee every morning, cigarettes, PC gaming I'd classify as luxury.

    Upgrading your machine before it's 5 years old/sluggish is far from a luxury.
    I see laptops/pc's as a tool. I'd not classify a tool in need of replacement as a luxury, more of a necessity
  12. cliffordcooley

    cliffordcooley TS Guardian Fighter Posts: 11,393   +5,018

    Unless you have a close relationship with p51d007 that the rest of us don't know about. You are making way too many assumptions about their life. There is about five questions I would need to ask, before blatantly suggesting "Just upgrade dude". Price does seem to be a concern, else why wait for prices to drop. Now that is me making an assumption.

    So how well do you know p51d007's "laptops/pc's as a tool" usage? Is that not one of the first help questions before recommending upgrades? And that is when you know they are ready to upgrade, and asking for help in selecting.

    Either way though I'll let it go. I just thought your comment was a little strange. I probably took it too literal.
  13. TheBigFatClown

    TheBigFatClown TS Evangelist Posts: 744   +274

    The advice to "just upgrade" is being thrown out a little too cavalierly not understanding the personal circumstances. On the other hand, I can afford to buy a second set of memory, a third, or a fourth. But I've absolutely refused to pay the high memory prices until just recently.
    I've been following memory prices for probably a year now.
    The Patriot Viper LED/White 16GB(2x8GB) 3200MHz memory kit was $205.00 back in April of this year. It's selling for $150.00 at the moment (give or take a few dollars depending on the retailer). That's WAY more than a 2% drop in prices. More like 25%. So, the article is a bit "odd" to me even mentioning a 2% dip. Who cares about a 2% dip in memory prices? I see at least 10% changes in memory prices just when they go on and off sale. Like clockwork. Literally, a tick-tock of going on and off sales. I think it's a psychological ploy that still fools some people I guess.

    If you internally convince yourself that the kit I spoke of above is worth $205.00 to begin with you would be jumping all over it now at $150.00. I don't think 16GB should cost a dime over a $100.00 so I'm still waiting to see what happens.
  14. dj2017

    dj2017 TS Maniac Posts: 160   +167

    @Paul Taylor

    2% was the drop in memory prices before intel's problems. Now it is expected to be higher.

    "DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, previously estimated that the contract prices of PC DRAM products will drop by around 2% QoQ in 4Q18 as the market gradually shifts into oversupply. However, it is now possible that the price decline will become larger due the shortage of Intel CPUs and lower demand for notebooks and PC DRAM in a row."
    Read more at https://press.trendforce.com/node/view/3156.html#O28x67q6YRzOwyXi.99"
  15. TheBigFatClown

    TheBigFatClown TS Evangelist Posts: 744   +274

    That's good news. I'm waiting for 2015 prices to return. I paid $89.00 for 16GB(2x8GB) back then. So, I guess my expectations are set approximately around that same price range. I can still take it or leave it.
    cliffordcooley likes this.
  16. ShagnWagn

    ShagnWagn TS Guru Posts: 731   +561

    For the recommendation to just "throw out the old hardware and throw money out of your wallet" - Slowness is only because people install so much software on their computers that they become bloated. I'm not talking about disk space - I'm talking about background apps and services. A computer does not get slower just because of time. I guess if you don't know what you are talking about - reload the operating fresh and only install the apps you actually use. You would be surprised! And so will your bank account!

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