RTX 4000 series incoming? Nvidia says graphics card supply will improve in the second...

[midian182]

Something to look forward to: We’re all sick of the GPU market being in such shambles, but could things change this year? Nvidia chief financial officer (CFO) Colette Kress says that the company expects to increase supply of its cards in the second half of 2022, which likely coincides with the arrival of the RTX 4000 ‘Ada Lovelace’ series.

Speaking at the virtual 24th Annual Needham Growth Conference (via Seeking Alpha), Kress said that demand for Nvidia’s GeForce products far outweighed supply last year, as we know, but team green is optimistic that the situation will improve later this year.

"We are working, as we've mentioned, in terms of longer-term, getting that supply. In the second half of calendar '22, we believe we'll be in a great position with our overall supply in terms of our estimations of what we will need going forward," Kress explained.

Why the sudden increase in GPU supply? The obvious answer would be the arrival of Ampere’s successor, codenamed Lovelace—we previously heard that the new series of cards would arrive in the third quarter of 2022.

Expect these to be replaced with RTX 4000 cards later this year

This is the second time Kress has claimed Nvidia would improve the supply of its graphics cards in the second half of 2022. At the UBS Global TMT conference last month, the CFO said, “The company as a whole will take the appropriate work to continue to procure more supply. We’ve been able to grow quite well during this year, each quarter, sequentially growing. And we do continue to plan to do that for Q4 […] So we believe we will be in a better situation in terms of supply when we look at the second half of next year.”

Nvidia tends to release a new graphics card family every two years, so we can expect to see the RTX 4000 series in September if it follows that same cadence. Nvidia is rumored to be moving away from Samsung’s 8nm node, which it uses for the RTX 3000 series, and tap TSMC’s 5nm process node, used by Apple, AMD, and others.

We’ll have to wait and see if there really is enough supply of RTX 4000 cards to meet consumer demand. TSMC recently committed to spending up to $44 billion on upgrading capacity this year, and lowering demand from miners is obviously a good thing, but scalpers aren’t going away anytime soon. Moreover, the supply of RTX 3000 cards could get even tighter if Nvidia puts more focus on producing its latest generation of products.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/92991-lovelace-inbound-nvidia-graphics-card-supply-improve-second.html

 

[R00sT3R]

The trouble is (pro) Scalpers have GPU's forever on their radar now, so every new launch is going to have massive shortages and scalped mark-ups.

Even in normal times, New architecture GPU cards are in very short supply for the first few months.

...its going to be the new normal until the scalpers find a more lucrative product to go after.

 

[Achaios]

Just more baloney from NVIDIA.

There's literally millions of ppl still signed up on the EVGA list for a card according to EVGA insider Jayz who still haven't received one and now the Leatherman is telling us that supply will somehow miraculously improve.

I don't see how this will happen, esp with Miners and Scalpers in the corner waiting to buy out all new gen NVIDIA cards.

Unless crypto coins crash, there will be no improvement to the current "GPU shortage" for which the Miners are wholly to blame.

 

[Eldritch]

It means that they will jack up the prices so much that the consumer demand will reduce sharply making the supply adequate.

If you thought that they will just increase supply instead of booking profits then :
Awwww..... You are so adorable!

 

[Kosmoz]

RTX 4090 will be at least $2000 (MSRP), so that means $3000-$3500 real price.
and later
RTX 4090 Ti for $2500 (MSRP), as in $3500-$4000 real price.

I expect the entire stack to go up in price by +$100 to +$500 (or more), depending on tier.

 

[Nobina]

They're gonna have a higher than usual MSRP due to people showing they are willing to pay any amount of money when they're desperate. Scalpers price won't be needed here when the inital price will be matching it.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

Yeah, supply will improve. What is this, the 4th, 5th time the industry has claimed this?

apparently, much like the media and government, they've never heard of the concept of the boy who cried wolf.

 

[elementalSG]

Ethereum mining will be over in June since it is switching to Proof of Stake instead of using graphics cards to do Proof of Work. Prices on graphics cards should crash after that, just like in 2019 when crypto’s value (especially Ethereum) nose-dived

 

[Dimitriid]

Ethereum mining will be over in June since it is switching to Proof of Stake instead of using graphics cards to do Proof of Work. Prices on graphics cards should crash after that, just like in 2019 when crypto’s value (especially Ethereum) nose-dived

That's been said before, many times over the course of many years: Eth just makes too much money for gpu miners to ruin it: even if they do miners are possibly ready to create another coin instead of supporting Eth changes.

 

[Achaios]

Ethereum mining will be over in June since it is switching to Proof of Stake instead of using graphics cards to do Proof of Work. Prices on graphics cards should crash after that, just like in 2019 when crypto’s value (especially Ethereum) nose-dived

ETH was supposed to have transitioned over to "Proof Of Stake" 6 years ago and EVERY single year hence.

This never happened and it will never happen so long as the current state of affairs benefits so many ppl incl NVIDIA, Miners, Scalpers, Suppliers and Retailers.

 

[Dimitriid]

As for this news article well I think Nvidia's language might be technically true, I don't think Nvidia is really think about how they might finally be able to sell the consumer gamer market: as I said many times before they absolutely *can* do something about miners and scalpers if they wanted to as they have a direct sales channel already in place, yet enabling the scams from their distributors and AIB partners makes them a lot of money still and a lot faster.

What I think they mean is "We will have enough supply in the later half of 2022 to take care of miners and data center clients" and will likely have the same low stock actually showing up at retail for gamer consumers.

Either than and (or) also the MSRP will be something like 900-1000 for a 4070 type product, at least 1000-1200 for a 3080 but maybe even1500 flaout out MSRP and 2000-3000 for the top-of-the-line 4090 product: regardless of stock they will try to establish those as the new normal prices and won't go back to just making 500 for a 4070 when the market for the 3070 showed it can easy do 2x that much even for gamers if they're desperate enough.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

As for this news article well I think Nvidia's language might be technically true, I don't think Nvidia is really think about how they might finally be able to sell the consumer gamer market: as I said many times before they absolutely *can* do something about miners and scalpers if they wanted to as they have a direct sales channel already in place, yet enabling the scams from their distributors and AIB partners makes them a lot of money still and a lot faster.

What I think they mean is "We will have enough supply in the later half of 2022 to take care of miners and data center clients" and will likely have the same low stock actually showing up at retail for gamer consumers.

Either than and (or) also the MSRP will be something like 900-1000 for a 4070 type product, at least 1000-1200 for a 3080 but maybe even1500 flaout out MSRP and 2000-3000 for the top-of-the-line 4090 product: regardless of stock they will try to establish those as the new normal prices and won't go back to just making 500 for a 4070 when the market for the 3070 showed it can easy do 2x that much even for gamers if they're desperate enough.

"supply improved" could very easily mean an extra 10 cards to consumers. It's technically true.

Gamers are some of the biggest consoomers on planet earth. Purchasing hundreds of millions of dollars in microtransactions per month, buying DLC and season passes and add ons and cosmetics and remasters and rereleases and on and on. Hardware is no exception, that was proven back in 2014 with the OG nvidia titan, then the titan X, xD, ece.

I fully expect the PC market to swing back to 2007, overpriced and only the purvue of the wealthy once again, before another economic downturn hammers the PC market back into shape again. Funny how history repeats itself.

 

[punctualturn]

Lets see, a couple of days ago, we were crying because the reviewers and media dont matter to nvidia and what do we have here?

Creating more hype for poor and good nvidia.

The more things change....

 

[VaRmeNsI]

Wonder what the MSRP's will be like this time around...

 

[wiyosaya]

"supply improved" could very easily mean an extra 10 cards to consumers. It's technically true.

And it could mean a single extra card to consumers. I see this "announcement" as nWeedia trying to spin the situation so that people stop complaining about them. As you mentioned about politicians, its nWeedia pretending to actually do something about the situation when in reality, they are doing Jack Schitt.
For your amusement -

 

[wiyosaya]

What I think they mean is "We will have enough supply in the later half of 2022 to take care of miners and data center clients"

Other than the chips, themselves, I am not sure that the data center /HPC market affects the gamer/consumer market. If you compare compute specs between cards sold to the gamer/consumer markets, particularly double-precision (DP) compute, to the data center, particularly cards for HPC, you'll find that DP compute scores for the consumer cards are only a fraction of the scores of the HPC cards. They used to be on par with each other until nWeedia figured out that they could sell the non-crippled HPC compute only cards to the HPC market at a much, much higher cost. People, myself included, bought nWeedia consumer cards because they were as good as their HPC/Compute cards and cost much less - doing that yields no benefits these days, but one thing is for sure, I am not buying an HPC card to run my BOINC projects. The stats at the link were all done with nWeedia consumer cards starting with an 8800 GT

 

[Moochy]

Just more baloney from NVIDIA.

There's literally millions of ppl still signed up on the EVGA list for a card according to EVGA insider Jayz who still haven't received one and now the Leatherman is telling us that supply will somehow miraculously improve.

I don't see how this will happen, esp with Miners and Scalpers in the corner waiting to buy out all new gen NVIDIA cards.

Unless crypto coins crash, there will be no improvement to the current "GPU shortage" for which the Miners are wholly to blame.

I entered EVGA's queue about tens months ago and forgot about it. Last week EVGA shipped a RTX 3070 Ti FTW3 ULTRA GAMING to my front door. $829. Pinch me.

 

[Dimitriid]

Other than the chips, themselves, I am not sure that the data center /HPC market affects the gamer/consumer market. If you compare compute specs between cards sold to the gamer/consumer markets, particularly double-precision (DP) compute, to the data center, particularly cards for HPC, you'll find that DP compute scores for the consumer cards are only a fraction of the scores of the HPC cards. They used to be on par with each other until nWeedia figured out that they could sell the non-crippled HPC compute only cards to the HPC market at a much, much higher cost. People, myself included, bought nWeedia consumer cards because they were as good as their HPC/Compute cards and cost much less - doing that yields no benefits these days, but one thing is for sure, I am not buying an HPC card to run my BOINC projects. The stats at the link were all done with nWeedia consumer cards starting with an 8800 GT

Well to clarify a bit: Announcing the RTX 4000 line is half the story. You get the CGI Kitchen and the Leather Jacket CEO and everyone is giddy. But when it actually comes time to allocate chips to be placed on GPUs, Nvidia can easily allocate the exact same chips to different PCI and BIOS and cards with ecc memory instead of consumer ones and sell those to data centers. Mostly because marketing works very differently for those types of customers anyway to the point we might not even find out when those new architecture products are available for servers and workstations.

While there might be other fundamental differences I am inclined to think it's not as many to make a meaningful, costly difference for Nvidia to just allocate consumer chips good enough for "X080" levels to server products instead. In fact remember that fairly recently, Nvidia finally decided to out of the blue and seemingly unprovoked, stop software-blocking some of the enterprise features from consumer cards like GPU Passthrough and even enabled GPU Paravirtualization for Hyper-V systems on consumer products.

That tells me that they want to get more people invested in the server side and that they also might want to blur the lines between consumer and enterprise products at this point.

 

[Neatfeatguy]

I entered EVGA's queue about tens months ago and forgot about it. Last week EVGA shipped a RTX 3070 Ti FTW3 ULTRA GAMING to my front door. $829. Pinch me.

I had that one, sold it for $1300. Went fast once I posted it on amazon. It looked nice, but I already have my 3080.
I tried to help someone that may be in need on TPU and offered it there for $1100 (since it cost $900 after taxes + shipping), but no one took it. Sold it on amazon market instead.

Had a 3060Ti I used for a couple months, spent about $500 on it. Sold it for $900.

I can see why folks are grabbing up GPUs when they can and selling them off for more. So far I put an extra $600 (after amazon seller fees) into my pocket. I feel kind of bad ripping folks off, but at the same time if someone is willing to spend extra money to get a card and I'm putting some extra money into my pocket, I won't lose any sleep over it.

Which makes me want to sell more. I might just keep hitting up newegg shuffle and working on hitting up Micro Center again, see if I can't land a decently priced 3060Ti/3070/3080.

 

[seeprime]

Unless there is a worldwide recession, the second half of 2022 is unlikely to bring improved chip supplies. Chip fabs are booked up for a year as it is. New fabs, a ton of them, won't be online until 2024. The PR they're spouting seems overly optimistic.

 

[havok585]

I wouldnt put much trust in what that CFO says, it's the Nth time she say there will be better supply next time.

 

[JCX88]

Unless crypto coins crash, there will be no improvement to the current "GPU shortage" for which the Miners are wholly to blame.

I've been mining since summer on 2060 and in summer 120w was getting me $60-70/month. This was a lot even with my high electricity rates - 25-35 cents/kWh

In recent weeks profitability fell down to $40/month. Anything below that and it wouldn't make sense to mine anymore in my area. Because electricity costs are around $30/month for mining.

Right now as I'm typing this ironically it's back to $60/month but it's the first time I've seen this in weeks, most of the time it was around $40.

Profitability is going down and will eventually disappear for all except the savy miners on dirt cheap solar.

 

[wiyosaya]

In fact remember that fairly recently, Nvidia finally decided to out of the blue and seemingly unprovoked, stop software-blocking some of the enterprise features from consumer cards like GPU Passthrough and even enabled GPU Paravirtualization for Hyper-V systems on consumer products.

That tells me that they want to get more people invested in the server side and that they also might want to blur the lines between consumer and enterprise products at this point.

Interesting. I was not aware that nVidia had enabled some "pro" features on consumer cards. I would be surprised, however, if they enabled full compute potential on consumer cards as they can charge substantially more money for compute cards made for HPC.

 

[wiyosaya]

I entered EVGA's queue about tens months ago and forgot about it. Last week EVGA shipped a RTX 3070 Ti FTW3 ULTRA GAMING to my front door. $829. Pinch me.

Maybe this is an approach to take - even if it means waiting ten months.

 

[elementalSG]

That's been said before, many times over the course of many years: Eth just makes too much money for gpu miners to ruin it: even if they do miners are possibly ready to create another coin instead of supporting Eth changes.

I mean you can stay pessimistic if you want. I'm watching eBay every day and XBox Series X and PlayStation 5s can be had for $600-$650 now. Just a month ago it was still $800-$900. Even if Ethereum doesn't stop PoW, it seems like supply is improving for gamers regardless. I'm hoping to get a PlayStation 5 in the coming months for MSRP