Bill Gates Says DVDs Have No Future
- Thread starter Phantasm66
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So, in recent time's, in terms of removable data storage, we've gone from Floppy disks which didn't fit in your pocket, to floppy disks you COULD fit in your shirt poket.
From there, we had CD's that you have to carry in a case that won't fit in your pocket in case they get scratched, to DVD's generally in bigger cases, that like being scratched even less.
And in the future we are possibly looking at little data keys, like the USB flash memory sticks we have now that will fit on your keyring? (maybe)
I wish someone would hurry up and decide whether or not I should be carrying my data around
From there, we had CD's that you have to carry in a case that won't fit in your pocket in case they get scratched, to DVD's generally in bigger cases, that like being scratched even less.
And in the future we are possibly looking at little data keys, like the USB flash memory sticks we have now that will fit on your keyring? (maybe)
I wish someone would hurry up and decide whether or not I should be carrying my data around
acidosmosis
Posts: 1,310 +0
That's not true portability. Laptops are a large inconvenience in most cases. For example you can't just walk around easily with a laptop. You have to carry it. That is one good thing about pocket PC's such as the HP's IPAQ. You can carry this in your pocket or even clip it onto your belt inside a small case.
Oh well portabilty and comfortabilty are 2 different things.
I mean there are labtops that weight about 5 lbs now...which helps things...but yea you're bound to bump into something...perhaps a wall..or a car.
Palm pilots and pocket pcs (as you said) are a nice alternative...but you can't play Doom III on those bad boys
Not yet anyways...
I mean there are labtops that weight about 5 lbs now...which helps things...but yea you're bound to bump into something...perhaps a wall..or a car.
Palm pilots and pocket pcs (as you said) are a nice alternative...but you can't play Doom III on those bad boys
Not yet anyways...
With my most creative stupidity, I think that in the future, storage devices will be on common accessories that we wear frequently.
Examples are Rings, Earrings, Braclets and Watches.
These devices/accessories will have wireless capabilities, and communicates with PCs of the future using wireless technology, something like an enhanced version of the 802.11x standard.
These devices also have security features such as encryption, and identification system to identify the owner of the device.
<-- Imagination running wild
Examples are Rings, Earrings, Braclets and Watches.
These devices/accessories will have wireless capabilities, and communicates with PCs of the future using wireless technology, something like an enhanced version of the 802.11x standard.
These devices also have security features such as encryption, and identification system to identify the owner of the device.
<-- Imagination running wild
There's a limit to exactly how small computers will get.
Things like Pocket PCs and PDAs are very small and feature packed, but the screen can only get so tiny before it comes useless.
A laptop works on a simliar principal. There are 2lb laptops out there, like the tiny Toshiba Portege or the extremely small Sony Picturebook... But I think those are pushing the limits of usability for typing, web browsing etc..
Things like Pocket PCs and PDAs are very small and feature packed, but the screen can only get so tiny before it comes useless.
A laptop works on a simliar principal. There are 2lb laptops out there, like the tiny Toshiba Portege or the extremely small Sony Picturebook... But I think those are pushing the limits of usability for typing, web browsing etc..
acidosmosis
Posts: 1,310 +0
Not exactly Rick. Your thinking is very confined.
Your thinking physical viewscreens. There are lots of possibilitys for large viewscreens without them actually "existing". Such as a hologram type screen, or a small very thin piece of material which you "fold out" or roll out of a type of canister maybe (sort of like camera film).. or even a sort of object which you place on your head like headphones and has a view peice that goes in front of your eye. That could create a simulated very large screen in front of you.
With that kind of technology you could even use your hands out in front of you to "type" or do other things. Kind of like in the movie Johnny Mnemonic.
Not possible? Oh it is very possible, just not in the "near" future. The components such as a processor and other devices could in the future easily fit on a wrist band or in a small "box" on your belt.
A lot of these devices ALREADY exist, but they are very expensive and still in development, but guess what, they work. It just requires a few things such as a wrist band with a keyboard on top of your arm, small wires which are built into a style of "shirt", etc.
As for the near future, things are looking great. PDAs, solid state HD's which already exist in very small form. Small keyring USB Hard Disks which go over 512MB, about 5" by 3/4" USB hard disks which hold over 40GB (I believe over 60GB?) and more.
My prediction, laptops in 10 years will be obsolete, and we will have much much much better technology, maybe more like what I mentioned.
Your thinking physical viewscreens. There are lots of possibilitys for large viewscreens without them actually "existing". Such as a hologram type screen, or a small very thin piece of material which you "fold out" or roll out of a type of canister maybe (sort of like camera film).. or even a sort of object which you place on your head like headphones and has a view peice that goes in front of your eye. That could create a simulated very large screen in front of you.
With that kind of technology you could even use your hands out in front of you to "type" or do other things. Kind of like in the movie Johnny Mnemonic.
Not possible? Oh it is very possible, just not in the "near" future. The components such as a processor and other devices could in the future easily fit on a wrist band or in a small "box" on your belt.
A lot of these devices ALREADY exist, but they are very expensive and still in development, but guess what, they work. It just requires a few things such as a wrist band with a keyboard on top of your arm, small wires which are built into a style of "shirt", etc.
As for the near future, things are looking great. PDAs, solid state HD's which already exist in very small form. Small keyring USB Hard Disks which go over 512MB, about 5" by 3/4" USB hard disks which hold over 40GB (I believe over 60GB?) and more.
My prediction, laptops in 10 years will be obsolete, and we will have much much much better technology, maybe more like what I mentioned.
U
Unregistered
What instead?
Based a upon billygoats quote, I believe that he is talking about flash type memory, sold state storage medium. Today we have 4GB storage on flash, last year we had 2GB, the year before 1GB, the year before 512MB... given the rate of expansion and the rate of transfer we will be @ 4TB in 10 years with a transfer rate 100x faster than DVD and a medium 1/10th the size that is not stretchable. How is this for the future?
IronSmith
Based a upon billygoats quote, I believe that he is talking about flash type memory, sold state storage medium. Today we have 4GB storage on flash, last year we had 2GB, the year before 1GB, the year before 512MB... given the rate of expansion and the rate of transfer we will be @ 4TB in 10 years with a transfer rate 100x faster than DVD and a medium 1/10th the size that is not stretchable. How is this for the future?
IronSmith
U
Unregistered
I feel like celebrating!
acidosmosis
Posts: 1,310 +0
Like it's 999?
MrGaribaldi
Posts: 2,488 +1
acid> Did you mean 1999?
Personally I think we'll either see crystal storage (it has been in dev. since late fifities afaicr) as seen on B5, or organic harddrives. The latter had come quite some way, but where having a problem reading the data back (when light affects the organic material used, how do you read it back with light?)...
As for flash, it's still (and most likely are going to stay) way to large to be practical in the long run... We're pushing the terrabyte boundary (in regular desktops), but we've not really pushed far beyond a couple of GB's which still are in a large container.
From what I recall of the crystal storage, it had the possiblity to store 500tb in a small diamond. Not the ones you find in the cheaper rings, but still small enough to fit into a ring. (Of course, how much it can store depends on the quality of the crystal...)
For the DVD, well it wasn't purely evolution either, as the spec allowed for ~18 GB of storage on one disk (dual layer dual sided) but those who created the drives and plates didn't push those.
And that was in a time that 10GB was a lot, and almost double of that on a cd sized disk was incredible...
But I agree that in the way it was introduced as single layer single sided it wasn't very good.
As for how long it will live, have anyone seen what has happened to the medias that cd's were going to make obsolete? Vinyl is still with us, and most pro DJ's prefer them due to better quality than the same album on a cd, and doesn't seem to be going away for good. It has taken a backseat, but new albums are still released on that medium?
Or what about VHS?
It too has taken a back seat, but it's still here with us. And that is after the "replacement" for the CD (the DVD) has been here for several years...
If you think about it, a lot of the technology that has been supersceded is still with us... LTP1 and PS2 connectors on the back of the computer? Floppy drives? Heck, it's not uncommon getting a com/serial port on your motherboard....!
So whereas migthy B might be correct that we'll have a replacement for DVD's in 10 years time, I have this nagging feeling it'll still be with us some time into the future...
Because we've got to remember that not everyone in the world is as eager to push the level of technology, nor as interested in upgrading as we are, which means that even after we've made the transition the old system will still be in use by most of the world...
Personally I think we'll either see crystal storage (it has been in dev. since late fifities afaicr) as seen on B5, or organic harddrives. The latter had come quite some way, but where having a problem reading the data back (when light affects the organic material used, how do you read it back with light?)...
As for flash, it's still (and most likely are going to stay) way to large to be practical in the long run... We're pushing the terrabyte boundary (in regular desktops), but we've not really pushed far beyond a couple of GB's which still are in a large container.
From what I recall of the crystal storage, it had the possiblity to store 500tb in a small diamond. Not the ones you find in the cheaper rings, but still small enough to fit into a ring. (Of course, how much it can store depends on the quality of the crystal...)
For the DVD, well it wasn't purely evolution either, as the spec allowed for ~18 GB of storage on one disk (dual layer dual sided) but those who created the drives and plates didn't push those.
And that was in a time that 10GB was a lot, and almost double of that on a cd sized disk was incredible...
But I agree that in the way it was introduced as single layer single sided it wasn't very good.
As for how long it will live, have anyone seen what has happened to the medias that cd's were going to make obsolete? Vinyl is still with us, and most pro DJ's prefer them due to better quality than the same album on a cd, and doesn't seem to be going away for good. It has taken a backseat, but new albums are still released on that medium?
Or what about VHS?
It too has taken a back seat, but it's still here with us. And that is after the "replacement" for the CD (the DVD) has been here for several years...
If you think about it, a lot of the technology that has been supersceded is still with us... LTP1 and PS2 connectors on the back of the computer? Floppy drives? Heck, it's not uncommon getting a com/serial port on your motherboard....!
So whereas migthy B might be correct that we'll have a replacement for DVD's in 10 years time, I have this nagging feeling it'll still be with us some time into the future...
Because we've got to remember that not everyone in the world is as eager to push the level of technology, nor as interested in upgrading as we are, which means that even after we've made the transition the old system will still be in use by most of the world...
acidosmosis
Posts: 1,310 +0
Originally posted by MrGaribaldi
acid> Did you mean 1999?
No, I mean 999
. Inside joke ;-). Would have to have played Diablo 2 lol.
TS | Thomas
Posts: 1,318 +2
Well, in the future seemingly storage will be via some sort of central repository. So I guess when this happens we'll merely purchase a licence to be able to view a movie - which we'll then merely stream into our homes via some sort of wireless system (Bandwidth ought not to be a concern at this point of course). More than likely it'll probably be some sort of renewable licence at that.
the answer is simple....jack into the mass Petabytes of grey matter between your ears....interface with your optic nerves....all you need is an interface to your network/PC/etc....
acidosmosis
Posts: 1,310 +0
Your thinking a little too far into the future there ether.real, we may not even be alive to see such a thing. Either way, I sure wouldn't let someone jack into my brain for their use or my use. Either way. For lack of better words, screw that. =D
S
Someone Close
Well guys, i think the way forward is the portable memory sticks are the way forward, They are small, light and very easy to carry around, almost like having a pen in your pocket!!
They are becoming popluar here in england
Also an other brilliant, i mean brilliant storage system if it was brought about as a storage medium is the ipod, At thie minute it only holds music files (i think) but these have up to 40GB of storage space in one little handheld device. I think they have a harddrive in them. Although these things are deseptive in weight and quiet heavy these would be a great new storage device.
Maybe not for the top pocket, they would fit in the pocket or clip on the belt.
Someone Close (aka Someone)
They are becoming popluar here in england
Also an other brilliant, i mean brilliant storage system if it was brought about as a storage medium is the ipod, At thie minute it only holds music files (i think) but these have up to 40GB of storage space in one little handheld device. I think they have a harddrive in them. Although these things are deseptive in weight and quiet heavy these would be a great new storage device.
Maybe not for the top pocket, they would fit in the pocket or clip on the belt.
Someone Close (aka Someone)
videobruce
Posts: 93 +0
Wasn't he the one who said "640k ought to be enough for anyone"?
BrownPaper
Posts: 406 +0
I think that 640k quote was probably taken out of context. Maybe enough for the computers and what they did at the time, but he probably did not envision the games, videos and other amazing things we are doing and will do.
I wonder if Bill is going to eat his words with this DVD thing though, though I do believe him later down the road.
I wonder if Bill is going to eat his words with this DVD thing though, though I do believe him later down the road.
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