EV battery prices set to plummet, dramatic 50% drop predicted by 2026

[mbk34]

There are tens of millions of American households that have no place to do so. Condos, apartments, urban homes without garages.

Then obviously EV's probably aren't for them. For the other 233m Americans that live in houses with garages or car ports then EV's could perhaps be an option.

Hydrogen makes way more sense for larger vehicles. Even 1/2 ton pickups are showing the severe limitations of EVs, the silverado weighs what, 9000 pounds? 3k more then the big gassers.

I honestly don't understand the average American's fascination with pick up trucks. It's OK if your job requires one but just the concept of a 5L F150 is madness in my eyes. I'm guessing it's just the key concept of efficiency that's missing.

Remind me where the majority of the electricity for your EV comes from? Oh right, coal and nat gas. Dont those give off green house gasses?

You knwo what they say about those in glass houses....

We have turned off all the coal power stations in the UK. Currently 30% of electricity comes from wind and we're aiming to move to 100% within the next 10 years. It's a similar story across most of Europe with green energy, in whatever form, replacing fossil fuels.

 

[Brickwizard]

The Luxury German carmaker said back in January they are abandoning battery technology for hydrogen cells

 

[axiomatic13]

Profit margins???? To the best of my knowledge, only Tesla has any profit. Ford has encountered record losses with EV. GM is in the same boat, and none of them are remotely affordable, and several EV makers have gone under. Unless it's a complete commodity crash, I doubt it will have the rosy results Goldman envisions.

I think your information might be old? Ford leads the EV market in 2024. Source: https://www.autoblog.com/news/evs-face-historical-market-share-decline-and-record-sales

 

[Todd Sauve]

"proper" gas tax would make you change your mind.
Taking things from people is stupid when you can just make owning them unbearable.

It sounds like you are in favour of government extortion. That is sad because even much of the Western world's population is staggering under the load of taxes, and the poor are the ones for whom it becomes unbearable.

 

[mbk34]

It sounds like you are in favour of government extortion. That is sad because even much of the Western world's population is staggering under the load of taxes, and the poor are the ones for whom it becomes unbearable.

Maybe the tax is now just including the environmental and damage to health that ICE engines produce? If you guys are still keen on using trucks as daily drivers then it's obvious that the message just isn't getting through.

Aren't governments also putting putting a 50% tax on Chinese vehicles which means less competition and obviously end consumers pay more?

 

[SRB]

Some folk just don't like the idea of 0-60 times of under 3 seconds, of vehicles with almost zero maintenance, of filling up at home for $10 and waking up to a full tank each day or of driving around in near silence. Here in the UK though we won't be able to buy new ICE engined cars after 2030.

I love the way EV people quote all of these wonderful specs at the same time. 0-60 in 3 seconds gets you a 50 mile range from a "300 mile" battery. Not to mention, you can not just charge in less than an hour, you get to charge every hour. For that matter, winter cuts the range by at least 30% without a lead foot.

If EV's were as described by proponents on this page, the gasoline engine would already be dead.

 

[SRB]

I think your information might be old? Ford leads the EV market in 2024. Source: https://www.autoblog.com/news/evs-face-historical-market-share-decline-and-record-sales

Not likely. Their EV division is up to $4b in losses and about $40k per vehicle. All being the market leader in sales gets you is further in the red. The only reason they are not out of business is because the ICE business is keeping them afloat. Kill that, and then see how long the party lasts.

 

[toooooot]

It sounds like you are in favour of government extortion. That is sad because even much of the Western world's population is staggering under the load of taxes, and the poor are the ones for whom it becomes unbearable.

I said nothing about approving it. I am only pointing out how easy it is to phase out gas.
It is in human psychology. You can very easily make people do undesirable or unpleasant things without them arguing very hard about

 

[scavengerspc]

I love the way EV people quote all of these wonderful specs at the same time. 0-60 in 3 seconds gets you a 50 mile range from a "300 mile" battery. Not to mention, you can not just charge in less than an hour, you get to charge every hour. For that matter, winter cuts the range by at least 30% without a lead foot.

If EV's were as described by proponents on this page, the gasoline engine would already be dead.

It's just damn lucky that the superfast cars can still get 20 MPG, right?
Wrong, do you have even a clue how aggressive driving cripples MPG in a smoke pump?

As for charging, I can easily charge the 60 kWh battery overnight, and when at my local level 3 charger I can get about 60 miles in 10 minutes +\- for $6-7. And that is at a rate 3 times more than at home.
As I said, winter does not cut the range by at least 30%. 30% is the MOST I have ever heard. (32 maybe)
And how far off do you think that is for driving a dino underpowered car in cold temps?

"If EVs were as described by proponents on this page, the gasoline engine would already be dead."

The misinformation and disinformation had time to be disproved as EV manufacturers hung in there.
And may I remind you, the gasoline engine is dying now.
But I don't think it will die off completely.

 

[mbk34]

I love the way EV people quote all of these wonderful specs at the same time. 0-60 in 3 seconds gets you a 50 mile range from a "300 mile" battery. Not to mention, you can not just charge in less than an hour, you get to charge every hour. For that matter, winter cuts the range by at least 30% without a lead foot.

If EV's were as described by proponents on this page, the gasoline engine would already be dead.

As an example I'll pick a Tesla Model 3 LR which I think is a fairly popular choice in the US. If you want to go accelerate fast then it has 0-60 in 4.2 seconds. If you want long range then driving carefully you might get 340+ miles. If you're doing high mileages in a day then you can recharge from 10% to 80% in about 30 mins at a supercharger. Most people will charge at home overnight where the cost of filling your tank is minimal. The main maintenance cost on these cars is tyres and windscreen wipers, this seems to be true even on cars with many 100's of thousands of miles.

Personally, I'd say the gasoline engine is dead. It just doesn't seem to know it yet.

 

[SRB]

As an example I'll pick a Tesla Model 3 LR which I think is a fairly popular choice in the US. If you want to go accelerate fast then it has 0-60 in 4.2 seconds. If you want long range then driving carefully you might get 340+ miles. If you're doing high mileages in a day then you can recharge from 10% to 80% in about 30 mins at a supercharger. Most people will charge at home overnight where the cost of filling your tank is minimal. The main maintenance cost on these cars is tyres and windscreen wipers, this seems to be true even on cars with many 100's of thousands of miles.

Personally, I'd say the gasoline engine is dead. It just doesn't seem to know it yet.

My wife has a hybrid, I own a V8 coupe. I very rarely need to put my foot to the floor, but yes, it is there if I need it. Just like with ICE sports cars, a good many people who buy a car for it's 0-60 time (especially in Texas) take advantage of it. The difference is, driving an ICE car at 80 all the time and putting your foot to the floor doesn't drop the range in half. Floor the car, heavy on the brakes, and driving at 80 DOES with an EV.

The implied statements above are either 1. MY care can do 0-60 in 4.5 sec, but I don't drive like that, so I get good range, or 2. I drive all the time at 0-60 of 4.5 sec, make long trips at 80+ etc. and my range is fine. The first is most drivers, the second is a commuter who charges every night and doesn't worry about range.

 

[Rudyduu]

Profit margins???? To the best of my knowledge, only Tesla has any profit. Ford has encountered record losses with EV. GM is in the same boat, and none of them are remotely affordable, and several EV makers have gone under. Unless it's a complete commodity crash, I doubt it will have the rosy results Goldman envisions.

Ford and GM doesn't just sell EV's though, they make money on their other vehicles that cover any losses they make on EV's. Tesla has been selling EV's for 16 years. Ford and GM has not. There is also the issue of people who wanted an EV already buying one from Tesla or the other brands.

What is the standard for "affordable"? Why are you saying that about Ford and GM while not mentioning the prices of EVs? Tesla Model 3 base spec with no options is $44,000 the base model Ford Mach-E is $42k.

Most people will charge at home overnight where the cost of filling your tank is minimal. The main maintenance cost on these cars is tyres and windscreen wipers, this seems to be true even on cars with many 100's of thousands of miles.

Personally, I'd say the gasoline engine is dead. It just doesn't seem to know it yet.

Most people don't live in a house or a place where they control where they park and can charge using household electricity.

If all car owners in the US suddenly owned an electric car there wouldn't be enough power production to support them. The cost of owning a car in beta is higher than just replacing consumables. EV's like Tesla aren't problem free just like all cars.

As the demand for gasoline goes down the cost of owning an ICE car will go down. The gasoline engine just isn't close to being dead. There is no infrastructure to support a large amount of EVs and it won't be built until after it's needed since it won't be profitable before. The cost of electricity will increase with demand as well. Electric vehicles are in the future, but not anytime soon.

 

[Brickwizard]

Ford and GM has not.

I dont know about the states, but in the UK I was driving a Chevy volt-Vauxhall/opal Ampere hybrid back in 2011 [it was released to the EU market spring 2012], Like all Yank-tanks, it was bigger than our normal products, a damn sight heavier, driving was challenging in snow and ice, but with big soft west of the pond seats very comfortable, would I buy one [or its newer Bolt family] It would need some consideration, but as I also tow probably not as I am not convinced the electric motor would be up to it.

 

[Rudyduu]

I dont know about the states, but in the UK I was driving a Chevy volt-Vauxhall/opal Ampere hybrid back in 2011 [it was released to the EU market spring 2012], Like all Yank-tanks, it was bigger than our normal products, a damn sight heavier, driving was challenging in snow and ice, but with big soft west of the pond seats very comfortable, would I buy one [or its newer Bolt family] It would need some consideration, but as I also tow probably not as I am not convinced the electric motor would be up to it.

I said Tesla has been selling EV's for 16 Ford and GM has not, in this case EV means non-hybrid, which is why Tesla, who doesn't make a hybrid, was used in the comparison and not Toyota. My point still stands that Ford and GM don't have to make profits on their EVs since they are making billions outside of their EV sales.

If you're doing high mileages in a day then you can recharge from 10% to 80% in about 30 mins at a supercharger. Most people will charge at home overnight where the cost of filling your tank is minimal. The main maintenance cost on these cars is tyres and windscreen wipers, this seems to be true even on cars with many 100's of thousands of miles.

Personally, I'd say the gasoline engine is dead. It just doesn't seem to know it yet.

I wouldn't say most people live in a place where they can control or install a charger where they park. If 50% of the vehicles in the US were suddenly changed to electric there wouldn't be enough power production to charge all of them at the same time. And power production won't be increased until it's profitable which will be well after it's actually needed increasing the cost of power until more production is brought online.

ICE engines are far from dead, and the more cars are replaced with EVs the cheaper gasoline will get. ICE cars won't be fully replaced by EVs for at least 50 years or more unless something massive changes like a sudden increase in cheap power and cheap electric cars.

 

[passingposeidon]

Yeah, LFP cells have already fallen to 1/4 of their value in recent years, approaching $50-60/kWh, but if you look around power stations and EVs they're still almost the same price.

My thesis is that companies will simply incorporate this into their profit margin rather than passing on the discount in the final price. And it's going to get even worse with the US and Europe blocking competition with retarded protectionist tariffs, going against the very inflation targets and supposed green agenda they pursue.

The cost of utility scale battery projects is falling very rapidly, so I do think it will be passed on in many forms. Lower electricity (peak) pricing being one of them.

 

[BabaYaga]

Some folk just don't like the idea of 0-60 times of under 3 seconds, of vehicles with almost zero maintenance, of filling up at home for $10 and waking up to a full tank each day or of driving around in near silence. Here in the UK though we won't be able to buy new ICE engined cars after 2030.

You forgot waiting an hour at a gas station to get gas. But EVs take so long to charge!

No one is even coming home on empty. I've been mainly charging between 70 to 80%. I can easily charge from empty to 100% in under 8hrs but I cap it at 80% for battery longevity unless I know I have to drive 300miles.

https://www.tesla.com/support/charging/wall-connector#vehicle-charging-speeds

 

[BabaYaga]

If the 300+ miles also holds is for snowy freezing climates, instead of dropping closer to 200 miles, it stands a chance. Otherwise, there's no point at this time.

EVs can already do over 500miles and the good ones had heat pumps installed years ago. I don't see much of a drop with my Tesla in the winter. There is some but it preconditions the battery before leaving.

https://lucidmotors.com/air/

Do you dive move than 200 miles daily? Most people are probably under 50 miles for the commutes. This is a nothing burger argument.

 

[BabaYaga]

That's fine and dandy if you have a house with parking alongside, no good if your in a second floor flat [apartment] and no good to me as we have designated parking and my bay is about 50 ft from the house

I'm on the second floor. I run the charger from the meter that's on the ground level not the power panel in my unit. 50ft is nothing. You can run a wire couple hundred feet. Find a good electrician. That's key.

 

[BabaYaga]

Then obviously EV's probably aren't for them. For the other 233m Americans that live in houses with garages or car ports then EV's could perhaps be an option.


I honestly don't understand the average American's fascination with pick up trucks. It's OK if your job requires one but just the concept of a 5L F150 is madness in my eyes. I'm guessing it's just the key concept of efficiency that's missing.


We have turned off all the coal power stations in the UK. Currently 30% of electricity comes from wind and we're aiming to move to 100% within the next 10 years. It's a similar story across most of Europe with green energy, in whatever form, replacing fossil fuels.

As an American, I don't either. 99% of them just need it to compensate for their penis size.

It's a law now to provide EV charging in certain big cities for new construction for all condo/apartment buildings as well as houses so that's not an issue anymore. Landlords can retrofit chargers for spots if they want. Superchargers sit outside all day in both hot and cold climates.

 

[seeprime]

EVs can already do over 500miles and the good ones had heat pumps installed years ago. I don't see much of a drop with my Tesla in the winter. There is some but it preconditions the battery before leaving.

https://lucidmotors.com/air/

Do you dive move than 200 miles daily? Most people are probably under 50 miles for the commutes. This is a nothing burger argument.

Daily trips aren't my issue. Long trips are. I have no desire to stop for more than five minutes to refuel. My current ICE vehicle goes 500 miles on a tank and cost under 25k dollars. No new EV is currently that affordable. By the way, Teslas look like they're fun to drive.

 

[Hotlynx16]

Green if true: Advances in technology and reductions in the cost of battery metals will soon bring electric vehicles to price parity with traditional cars, according to Goldman Sachs. However, this forecast overlooks current issues with oversupply, environmental impact, and China's export restrictions on rare-earth elements.

Goldman Sachs is highly optimistic about the future of electric vehicle batteries. The financial giant recently released new research focused on EV batteries, predicting that battery prices will drop by nearly 50 percent within the next few years. The technology is advancing much faster than initially anticipated.

The EV market is currently experiencing a phase of apparent oversupply, which might seem like bad news for battery tech. However, Goldman Sachs Research is forecasting a resurgence in consumer demand that will "largely begin" by 2026.

Global average prices for EV batteries have already seen a decline, falling from $153 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2020 to $149 in 2023. This year, prices are expected to drop further to $111 per kWh, and by 2026, they are projected to reach just $80. In two years, EV batteries will cost nearly 50 percent less than they did in 2023, bringing electric vehicles to ownership cost parity with gasoline-powered vehicles in the US – and that's before factoring in subsidies.

Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Goldman Sachs' Asia-Pacific Natural Resources and Clean Energy Research arm, said two key factors are driving the rapid decline in EV battery costs.

First, technological innovation is significantly increasing energy density. Many products now feature up to 30 percent higher energy density at a lower cost, with several of these innovations already available on the market.

The second major factor is the "continued downturn in battery metal prices," Bhandari noted. Critical elements like lithium and cobalt, which account for around 60 percent of the cost of EV batteries, have experienced price reductions. Between 2020 and 2023, the industry faced substantial "green inflation," with prices rising across the board for many materials.

According to Bhandari, 40 percent of the cost reduction is attributed to lower commodity prices. However, he did not elaborate on how geopolitical tensions between the US and China could significantly disrupt market progress. China controls some of the world's largest deposits of rare earth elements and is now using its dominant position to push back against export restrictions imposed by US authorities.

Goldman Sachs' research also highlighted that lithium-based batteries will likely continue to dominate the market, despite emerging alternatives like solid-state batteries offering potentially revolutionary improvements to the EV landscape. Five companies currently control 80 percent of the EV battery market, and their substantial R&D investments will likely maintain high barriers to entry for potential competitors.

Permalink to story:

EV battery prices set to plummet, dramatic 50% drop predicted by 2026

 

[scavengerspc]

Floor the car, heavy on the brakes, and driving at 80 DOES with an EV.

Wrong again.
I do it often because I drive in 70 and 75 mph speed limits. So 80 is not unusual.

And in stop and go driving, there is little difference between an EV and a smokers range.
The big advantage an EV has there? When sitting still in traffic, no fuel is consumed in an EV. No idling. Also, a comparable EV can do it quicker.

Please, may I ask where you get your information?

 

[Random Commenter]

"proper" gas tax would make you change your mind.
Taking things from people is stupid when you can just make owning them unbearable.

People who think it's the govt's right to compel you to do anything are a major part of today's problems. Have you learned nothing from history? Power corrupts, don't give them an inch.

Just wait till they come for something that I agree with but you despise. Should I support you then?You'll wish you'd stuck to principles rather than slogans.

 

[scavengerspc]

People who think it's the govt's right to compel you to do anything are a major part of today's problems.

Many times and this is one. It's not a right, it's their job.
Not all government intervention is bad. In fact, most aren't.

 

[Starfals]

Still insanely expensive. Most people in my country buy cars that cost around 5000 euro to 15000. I rarely see more expensive cars, or even regular cars that everyone gets in other countries, lol. You know, the 20-25k ones. I even know people with cars under 3000 euro. EVs just wont work over here, people will laugh at them.

If we were all rich, sure. Altho, it still sounds harder for someone living in an apartment. Perhaps if I had my own house with a garage? Being able to charge it at home or something. That sounds interesting. Almost nobody has a house in a big city like mine too (cus there is no space to make 1, only outside the city), so yeah. Apartment owners dont have that luxury.