Global chip shortages expected to last into 2022

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I'm starting to think that TSMC's stance that they're not going to increase production capacity may not have been as good an idea as they originally thought. They're leaving a crap-tonne of money on the table that disappears every time someone who was going to buy an AMD product ends up with something else due to a lack of choice in the matter.

GlobalFoundries abandoned 7nm process and doing that they made exactly same as you say TSMC did. GF was supposed to make many AMD products but they decided it (7nm process) was too expensive.

That's also one reason for chip shortage. TSMC 7nm capacity is around 140Kwafer/month and GF capacity for 7nm was supposed to be around 60-80Kwafer/month...

Also for TMSC, 5nm and other better ones are coming so there is no real reason to increase already old 7nm capacity any more.

 

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GlobalFoundries abandoned 7nm process and doing that they made exactly same as you say TSMC did. GF was supposed to make many AMD products but they decided it (7nm process) was too expensive.

Well, that's not quite the same thing because GF was having major problems with their 7nm node, similar to Intel and their 10nm node so they gave up. TSMC hasn't had those issues which is why they pretty much stand alone with their 7nm process.

Also for TMSC, 5nm and other better ones are coming so there is no real reason to increase already old 7nm capacity any more.

That's a fair point but considering the way the market is right now, I believe that any costs incurred by increasing their 7nm node capacity would be made back in spades. From the looks of things (especially with miners involved), TSMC would sell everything that they could possibly produce even if they doubled the capacity of their 7nm node. That just makes good business sense because it would be more money their pockets now instead of later and as the old adage goes, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

 

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Well, that's not quite the same thing because GF was having major problems with their 7nm node, similar to Intel and their 10nm node so they gave up. TSMC hasn't had those issues which is why they pretty much stand alone with their 7nm process.

No. First, official info was that they had no problems. Secondly, they cancelled process even before first tape out for AMD CPU was made. Intel had problems with actual product yields. Basically GF couldn't have same issues Intel had because GF was at least 6 months away from actual production when they pulled the plug.

That's a fair point but considering the way the market is right now, I believe that any costs incurred by increasing their 7nm node capacity would be made back in spades. From the looks of things (especially with miners involved), TSMC would sell everything that they could possibly produce even if they doubled the capacity of their 7nm node. That just makes good business sense because it would be more money their pockets now instead of later and as the old adage goes, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

It would take TSMC at least around three years to double current 7nm capacity. Even if they started doing it when GPU shortage started, they would get that double capacity around Q4/2022. At that time, there would not be that much demand for 7nm, since better processes then are what AMD wants.

Basically TSMC's estimations for 7nm demand failed even without pandemic because Intel had problems with 10nm and GlobalFoundries cancelled 7nm process. Considering GF should have made around 60K wafers per month, TSMC's predictions were quite accurate. GF cancelled 7nm process 2.5 years ago that left TSMC no chance to make extra capacity for 7nm