Graphics cards could become even more expensive following GDDR6 price rise

[captaincranky]

Conclusion: 2D games and low-poly 3D games will make a big comeback.

Oh, crap, does this mean that, "Tetris" is a goner too?

Oh well, what would Tetris be without ray tracing anyway.

 

[Cycloid Torus]

price fixing, low wafer yields due to narrow process widths, proportioned (by) product type, AMD's meteoric rise in CPU sales

Excellent ideas for possible causes. The low yield due to process width stands out due to the fact that I have been wondering about infantile failures and damage from high energy rays. We may be happy to be stuck with 14nm chips - at least until it truly sorts out.

 

[duckofdeath]

Do you see where you're suggesting that government is "colluding with TSMC" . "Overlooking, ignoring, turning a blind eye", etc

If you're Jonesing for a video card that badly, why don't you hit up the dark web, and see if you can buy yourself a scalper bot? It's gotta be cheaper than paying double MSRP from a scalper.

Nobody expected the way the new AMD line would take off. After all they were an industry joke, for the better part of a decade. So, did TSMC knowingly "bite off more than they could chew"? Perhaps, but perhaps not. After all, with the mining sales, where you used to have one video card per customer, now you might have dozens ordered per customer

As for the "lies, lies, and more lies", part of your argument, TSMC will obviously spin the situation to their advantage as best they can. It's just not the bizarre, "web of lies conspiracy", you're hysterically making it out to be.

But yes, AMD or whoever, will cater to their OEM partners first, before sating one whiny gamer, who they're well aware, will make everyone's life they contact a living hell, if they don't get a new video card. That's just the way it is. Does any of this register with you?

You should call TSMC, and tell them to get their sh!t together, because you know what's what. After all, they're probably not aware of just how important of a person they're screwing over.

Do you see where your denial gets in the way of your common sense? It's the bit between "Do you see..." and "...screwing over.".

The fact that you're one of the stereotypes making up arguments on behalf of others, so you have something to argue against makes you boring, at best.

 

[captaincranky]

Do you see where your denial gets in the way of your common sense? It's the bit between "Do you see..." and "...screwing over.".

The fact that you're one of the stereotypes making up arguments on behalf of others, so you have something to argue against makes you boring, at best.

And your whining and whimpering as that of a child deprived of a favorite toy is more than tedious at best. As is your dogma on how to solve the chip shortage through "congressional investigation".

Those thing said, and even assuming my character is as you say, why waste time bantering with me, when you could just march your compliant in front of SCOTUS, and have them solve the matter..

 

[duckofdeath]

And your whining and whimpering as that of a child deprived of a favorite toy is more than tedious at best. As is your dogma on how to solve the chip shortage through "congressional investigation".

Those thing said, and even assuming my character is as you say, why waste time bantering with me, when you could just march your compliant in front of SCOTUS, and have them solve the matter..

So, what's your point again? Just need someone to argue with on the internet? Someone you can pretend you're right against?

 

[captaincranky]

So, what's your point again? Just need someone to argue with on the internet? Someone you can pretend you're right against?

To be blunt, and in terms you will hopefully understand.

First, the only thing TSMC may be guilty of, is that, like the rest of us, "their reach exceeds their grasp". Wafer yield, accepting too many orders perhaps without the necessary fab capacity to back it up. How about the unexpected massive rise in AMD CPU sales? That was likely not taken into consideration when orders were accepted.

Second, the MSRPs set for video cards are not entirely unreasonable.

Third, and most importantly, pricing abuses, are in the middle of the supply chain. That's your friendly neighborhood, dealer, scalper, slash leech, who is doing all the price manipulation, not TSMC, Nvidia, or AMD.

To hear you tell it, TSMC is holding back production so that everybody else except them, can make huge piles of money. Which by any definition of standard, is abundantly asinine.

 

[duckofdeath]

First, the only thing TSMC may be guilty of, is that, like the rest of us, "their reach exceeds their grasp". Wafer yield, accepting too many orders perhaps without the necessary fab capacity to back it up.

That is defrauding their customers. These customers aren't your local grocery shop. They're billion dollar businesses, basing their forecasts on what they have been promised in contracts. You can't build tens of millions of graphics cards or processors in a day. This is indeed the core of the issue, as I've already stated. From there on, TSMC went on a global influencer rampage, spamming fake news about mining, water, just about everything, while also having their trlll army spam lies about the competition to make people talk about something else. This while all big clients have been forced to announce cancellations of products, one after the other. Every single client.
The price gouging is a direct result of this, as is AMD's and Nvidia's raising of MSRP. AMD's x700 series didn't use to start at anywhere near 500 bucks. We were supposed to get basic 4k performance for the masses but ended up getting shafted in every way possible, all because of TSMC's innocent little lie about what they could produce.

 

[captaincranky]

The price gouging is a direct result of this, as is AMD's and Nvidia's raising of MSRP. AMD's x700 series didn't use to start at anywhere near 500 bucks. We were supposed to get basic 4k performance for the masses but ended up getting shafted in every way possible, all because of TSMC's innocent little lie about what they could produce.

OK, here's the problem. First you could go off on this same rant, every Christmas, about Play Stations being scalped.

Second, neither you nor I have access to the terms of the original contract, Any of TSMC "customers", could have under ordered, not anticipating the scope of the demand at release.

It could also be a management / labor, "miscommunication" You know, like when the CEO comes out and asks, "can you deliver 10,000 of these wafers by xx/xx/zzzz"? You know if you say "no", he'll get somebody who he thinks can, or is willing to claim they can

So, TSMC is trying to cover their own a**es, which is also predictable. Hell, auto manufactures sit around and calculate the potential death toll from a particular defect, and decide whether it's cheaper to pay the claims, or fix the product.

As for Nvidia or whomever, it doesn't seem reasonable for them not to want to get in on the scalping. Face it, would you want to be a manufacturer pricing a particular product fairly at say, $100.00, while every creep, scalper, and price gouger, is pulling down $300.00 a pop? I think not.

The only real benefit from this 8 nm screw up, is that at least all those who have been railing about and/or laughing at,Intel's antiquated 14 nm CPUs, can still put their tail between their legs and go buy one.

And BTW, I recall reading that a couple of Samsung's execs were jailed for business related offenses, although I can't cite specifics.

So, be you gamer or miner, if it seems your jones is heavy enough, the industry can dish out whatever outrage they might concoct.

The people I do feel sorry for, (not that I'm really capable of empathy), are first time builders who have nothing to fall back on.

 

[captaincranky]

So, are the dire forecasts real - or, fluff to excuse and maintain artificially high prices?

Probably both. But if people just ignore them, and stick with the gear that they have, pretty soon the market will be flooded, at more than likely, steep discounts. Customers are far from blameless. After all, it's nothing but individual greed propelling this debacle.

After all the manufacturers have to know if they "shut their legs" on the product, daddy will get it elsewhere. (Granted, ATM there is no elsewhere). But, you or I can't go down to the corner bank, and borrow a few billion to build our own fab. Therefore it would seem that monopolies (virtual or otherwise), are naught but a necessary evil.

Besides, as I understand it, TSMC is building a 10 billion dollar fab in Texas. Now why would they do that, if they could meet demand with the ones they have? (Which supposedly will be done, (guess when), 2023 There's an article around here somewhere).

 

[duckofdeath]

OK, here's the problem. First you could go off on this same rant, every Christmas, about Play Stations being scalped.

Second, neither you nor I have access to the terms of the original contract, Any of TSMC "customers", could have under ordered, not anticipating the scope of the demand at release.

It could also be a management / labor, "miscommunication" You know, like when the CEO comes out and asks, "can you deliver 10,000 of these wafers by xx/xx/zzzz"? You know if you say "no", he'll get somebody who he thinks can, or is willing to claim they can

So, TSMC is trying to cover their own a**es, which is also predictable. Hell, auto manufactures sit around and calculate the potential death toll from a particular defect, and decide whether it's cheaper to pay the claims, or fix the product.

As for Nvidia or whomever, it doesn't seem reasonable for them not to want to get in on the scalping. Face it, would you want to be a manufacturer pricing a particular product fairly at say, $100.00, while every creep, scalper, and price gouger, is pulling down $300.00 a pop? I think not.

The only real benefit from this 8 nm screw up, is that at least all those who have been railing about and/or laughing at,Intel's antiquated 14 nm CPUs, can still put their tail between their legs and go buy one.

And BTW, I recall reading that a couple of Samsung's execs were jailed for business related offenses, although I can't cite specifics.

So, be you gamer or miner, if it seems your jones is heavy enough, the industry can dish out whatever outrage they might concoct.

The people I do feel sorry for, (not that I'm really capable of empathy), are first time builders who have nothing to fall back on.

Scalping for popular products is something that's been going on since the invention of currency.

Once more, to hopefully make you stop: These products aren't out of stock because they're popular. They're out of stock because TSMC is a pathological liar. Nvidia got fed up with them, too, and essentially cancelled their supposed biggest revenue generator in the RTX 2060, because TSMC doesn't deliver useful volumes.
The RX 6000 series is nearly one year old. They're so scarce they don't even show up at all on Steam's hardware survey, other than the laptop versions.
You can keep spamming your deflections and lies, it won't change reality. Scalping for products a year after launch doesn't exist except for the products that are so limited on the market that no one can get their hands on them.

This is what would have happened to scalpers hoarding all graphics cards for a whole year, if there wasn't a manufacturing issue:

Supermarket boss gives 'hoarder' the finger for trying to return toilet roll

John-Paul Drake of Drakes Supermarkets in Adelaide, Australia, has given a blunt rebuke to a shopper who bought thousands of toilet rolls and hundreds of litres of hand sanitiser

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[captaincranky]

Once more, to hopefully make you stop: These products aren't out of stock because they're popular. They're out of stock because TSMC is a pathological liar. Nvidia got fed up with them, too, and essentially cancelled their supposed biggest revenue generator in the RTX 2060, because TSMC doesn't deliver useful volumes.

OK, we agree that the blame lays with TSMC, The problem is, you can rant all you want, but you can't prove malicious intent, at least not to the degree you describe it.

If they over sated their capacity, or didn't account for the number of failed wafers, any poli-sci student would categorize this as "bullsh!tting, and not overt lying.

Those things said, they're still building a multi-billion dollar fab in Texas. Or is it your contention they're just going to dig a hole for the foundation, and abandon it?

You have to admit, they are taking profound steps to remediate the problem.

Correction, TSMC = 12 billion fab in Arizona, and Samsung 17 billion dollars in Texas.

TSMC to build a $12 billion advanced semiconductor plant in Arizona with US government support | TechCrunch

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract semiconductor foundry, said today that it plans to build an advanced chip foundry in

techcrunch.com

Samsung Foundry: New $17 Billion Fab in the USA by Late 2023

www.anandtech.com

 

[duckofdeath]

OK, we agree that the blame lays with TSMC, The problem is, you can rant all you want, but you can't prove malicious intent, at least not to the degree you describe it.

If they over sated their capacity, or didn't account for the number of failed wafers, any poli-sci student would categorize this as "bullsh!tting, and not overt lying.

Those things said, they're still building a multi-billion dollar fab in Texas. Or is it your contention they're just going to dig a hole for the foundation, and abandon it?

You have to admit, they are taking profound steps to remediate the problem.

That's the weirdest comeback ever. I have never claimed to have the proof. If I did, authorities would have been notified and TSMC execs would be in the news in handcuffs.
The facts stand. The nonsense about mining, water or Jodie Foster's alien abductors did it are just that. Nonsense. It doesn't add up if you think on it for two seconds. Misleading your shareholders and customers is a crime, even in Taiwan, I bet.

 

[captaincranky]

That's the weirdest comeback ever. I have never claimed to have the proof. If I did, authorities would have been notified and TSMC execs would be in the news in handcuffs.
The facts stand. The nonsense about mining, water or Jodie Foster's alien abductors did it are just that. Nonsense. It doesn't add up if you think on it for two seconds. Misleading your shareholders and customers is a crime, even in Taiwan, I bet.

Hey, every CEO in the industry is for all intents and purposes , a pathological liar.
Here's a whopper just revealed, "Windows 10 is the last edition of Windows ever".

I'm not sure where you imagine yourself to have the power to have TSMC's world come crashing down around its head. But rave on, it's apparently good for your soul,

As for misleading shareholders", think back to the load of crap Intel fed their stockholders with their, "road map" Hell, Intel should be at 5 nm by now.

They're still alive an well, (albeit at a much wider process width).

 

[duckofdeath]

Hey, every CEO in the industry is for all intents and purposes , a pathological liar.
Here's a whopper just revealed, "Windows 10 is the last edition of Windows ever".

I'm not sure where you imagine yourself to have the power to have TSMC's world come crashing down around its head. But rave on, it's apparently good for your soul,

I still don't know what's trgggring you to jump to all of these conclusions? I mean, most of the things you're arguing against is things you're making up on the go.

 

[captaincranky]

I still don't know what's trgggring you to jump to all of these conclusions? I mean, most of the things you're arguing against is things you're making up on the go.

I just am not of the mind to sit here and listen to all of your condescending prolcamations, concede to any of you "demands" or anything else.

The simple fact of the matter is, you're "making it up on the fly" as much as I am.

For example, how did the, "trying to return toilet paper", nonsense find its way into a discussion about semiconductor fabrication capacity?

 

[Danny101]

Guess I won't be upgrading for a very long while.

 

[captaincranky]

Guess I won't be upgrading for a very long while.

Well, it seems to me that we have to interpolate data from at least six separate categories if you want even the semi-truth as to what's actually going on.

!: Fab capacity, (by all manufacturers), may really be a clear, present, and ongoing issue. Otherwise, why would Samsung be building a 17 billion dollar fab in Texas, and TSMC another worth 12 billion in Arizona?

2: Wafer failure. While no one, (including myself), would argue the advantages of narrower process widths. There is likely a price to be paid for such rapid adoption of such, much lower die yield per wafer. While so many AMD fan boys have accused Intel of, "resting on their laurels", Intel has been working behind the scenes toward narrower process goals. As I understand it, their success rate, (even at 10 nm), have been less than stellar.

3: Egotism: Excessive optimism. and unrealistic demands on the part of manufacturer's CEO's, have led to unrealistic expectations of employees.

4: Sales tactics: Product reps are nothing, if not paid, professional liars. What ever message they're given, they will hyperbolize it, and shout it into the customer's ears.

5: Price rises: Given the extreme markups that scaplers / leeches / parasites, have been able to acquire per unit, I think it's unrealistic to expect manufactures, (who have paid dearly for development and many other factors), not to want a piece of the "scalp pie", which has been reaped by intermediaries.

6: Greed: Whatever use these cards may be put to, customer demands, whining and whimpering, and a belief in the "absolute necessity" of obtaining these products, have certainly not fallen of deaf ears higher up in the food chain.. In other words, if you have to be, "the first kid on the block to have these new toys", then you shall have them, at twice MSRP, and in suppository form..

 

[Danny101]

Well, it seems to me that we have to interpolate data from at least separate categories if you want even the semi-truth as to what's actually going on.

!: Fab capacity, (by all manufacturers), may really be a clear, present, and ongoing issue. Otherwise, why would Samsung be building a 17 billion dollar fab in Texas, and TSMC another worth 12 billion in Arizona?

2: Wafer failure. While no one, (including myself), would argue the advantages of narrower process widths. There is likely a price to be paid for such rapid adoption of such, much lower die yield per wafer. While so many AMD fan boys have accused Intel of, "resting on their laurels", Intel has been working behind the scenes toward narrower process goals. As I understand it, their success rate, (even at 10 MN), have been less than stellar.

3: Egotism: Excessive optimism. and unrealistic demands on the part of manufacturer's CEO's, have led to unrealistic expectations of employees.

4: Sales tactics: Product reps are nothing, if not paid, professional liars. What ever message they're given, they will hyperbolize it, and shout it into the customer's ears.

5: Price rises: Given the extreme markups that scaplers / leeches / parasites, have been able to acquire per unit, I think it's unrealistic to expect manufactures, (who have paid dearly for development and many other factors), not to want a piece of the "scalp pie", which has been reaped by intermediaries.

6: Greed: Whatever use these cards may be put to, customer demands, whining and whimpering, and a belief in the "absolute necessity" of obtaining these products, have certainly not fallen of deaf ears higher up in the food chain.. In other words, if you have to be, "the first kid on the block to have these new toys", then you shall have them, at twice MSRP,and in suppository form..

I'm at the point that even if I had the money and could secure the upgrades, I'd holdout in despite. I did my upgrade in 18'. I struck when the iron was hot. Not top shelf for sure, but still enough, underutilized, and plenty enough power to get by. It's about the value:dollar ratio and it's just not a buyer's market currently.

 

[captaincranky]

I'm at the point that even if I had the money and could secure the upgrades, I'd holdout in despite. I did my upgrade in 18'. I struck when the iron was hot. Not top shelf for sure, but still enough, underutilized, and plenty enough power to get by. It's about the value:dollar ratio and it's just not a buyer's market currently.

It sounds like you have good common sense to me. Once fabrication and supply issues are ironed out, manufacturers will be, once again, forced to compete in the open market, based solely on price.

A Samsung 500 GB "Evo 870" is currently selling for about 60 bucks. Compare that with the price of the 250 GB Evo 840 at release, about $90,00.
In the last couple of months, I've purchased enough SATA 3 SSDs to have a C:/ in each of my 4 machines that can take advantage of them (all Win 7), and have a backup SSD drive, OS transferred, just laying around, should that at any time become necessary. I'll bet that very few can make that claim with respect to their shiny new 2xxx, or, 3xxx series video cards.