Huawei won't get any more TSMC chips after September

[darkich]

Huawei is financially backed up by China itself.
It can survive for as long as it needs.
This will only make China double down on their own semiconductor foundries..give it 3-5 years, they could be at the top in that too.

 

[yRaz]

I don't know what Kool-aid you are drinking, but people in glass castles shouldn't throw stones.

Every country has skeletons in their closet and some are still keen on delivering more.

Ask about the abducted citizen of Pittsburgh, where did they go missing?

What, exactly, are you referring to? If you are talking about the United States history with forced labor it might be interesting to know that my family didn't come to the US until the 1930s. With the ways things are manufactured these days I don't have the option to buy something made in a humane way at any price.

 

[Shadowboxer]

I love this as it means my days of travelling to China are over. And China really is a miserable festering shithole of a country. Excuse me.

I feel very sorry for the residents of Hong Kong right now. That place was a sort of beacon but for no longer. God knows what horrors are already unfolding out there but I have heard that the protestors have mysteriously disappeared.

Count yourself luck if you’re born and raised in the west.

 

[Dyper]

China is not dependent on the US or Taiwan.

CHINA will do just fine without either.

China has dominion over Asia and Southeast Asia - and many would argue South America and Africa.

But it shouldn't come to this. Trump's trade war is anti-free market and Americans are quickly going to realize that America outsourcing inflation to China in exchange for manufactured goods was allowing Americans to live a quality of life their productivity did not justify.

Simply shifting production to impoverished people in India or anywhere else isn't changing the basic facts.

America's going deeper and deeper in debt and isn't productive.

$30,000,000,000,000 in debt by the end of Trump's presidency.

China is not dependent on the US or Taiwan.

CHINA will do just fine without either.

China has dominion over Asia and Southeast Asia - and many would argue South America and Africa.

But it shouldn't come to this. Trump's trade war is anti-free market and Americans are quickly going to realize that America outsourcing inflation to China in exchange for manufactured goods was allowing Americans to live a quality of life their productivity did not justify.

Simply shifting production to impoverished people in India or anywhere else isn't changing the basic facts.

America's going deeper and deeper in debt and isn't productive.

$30,000,000,000,000 in debt by the end of Trump's presidency.

Nail in the coffin of USA, maybe.
This move will do one thing and it is the exact opposite of what it was intended to do.
It will move China from dependency to self development. SMIC is already at 7nm and being funded by the government, it means it has almost an unlimited amount of money to make things a reality.
Also, China has x86 license thanks for Via in the name of Ziaoxin.
Don't forget also that China is one of the most important markets nowadays for US companies and if China says f*** you US, like you f***ed us, then US will have even more to lose than what China lost with the ban.
Anyway, China was long overdue to become the world 1st economic power given they worked their asses off to fabricate all the things the entire world is using, meanwhile US has enjoyed eating and watching movies. It is natural that China will become no1.

China and the USA, plus the rest of the industrial nations have an obligation to compete fairly to benefit the rest of the world. I’m optimistic and don’t care about the negative aspects that always surface during the process. Once the USA finds a cure to the most recent Chinese Virus this will further the noble cause.

 

[Irata]

Businesses will not accept less profit, so yes you will have to pay more. Shareholders will also not accept lower earnings. I would dump any stock holdings in companies that willfully made less money.

Labor costs and cheap supplies are the major factors. The US is very good at advanced manufacturing, it's not a skill issue.

I understand that businesses want and need to make profits, but some have reached obscene levels. Add to that creative tax accounting and heavy use of offshore havens and that hurts countries more than anything else.

Maybe this is also where some of the Chinese companies became a threat - building stuff cheap for US / European brands was OK, but once they started selling these goods under their own brands, this suddenly became a problem...

This is e.g. what happened to the German solar panel industry. Rather than passing on the savings in production costs over time due to their customers, they happily pocketed the increased profits as the market was hot due to abundant government subsidies. Along came the Chinese who sold their panels for a lot less but thanks to the German manufacturers‘ stupid greed still at a profit.

The solar panel industry is rather dead now but customers are still paying a lot for electricity due to the long term subsidies.

Also, I was not under the impression that making stuff (manufacturing) was a big thing in the US but rather that this was ‚unsexy‘ and better left to others. This can, of course be a problem once you become dependent on others, particularly if they are your competition .

 

[QuantumPhysics]

If the free market means human rights violations then you can take it and shove it.

Do me a favor and take pics of the manufacturing origin of your computer, your smartphone and any other electronic device in your house.

You are part of this whether you like it or not.

The free market is ALWAYS RIGHT.

 

[Puiu]

China and the USA, plus the rest of the industrial nations have an obligation to compete fairly to benefit the rest of the world. I’m optimistic and don’t care about the negative aspects that always surface during the process. Once the USA finds a cure to the most recent Chinese Virus this will further the noble cause.

I doubt that USA will ever play "fair" just as much as I doubt China will.

 

[yeeeeman]

China and the USA, plus the rest of the industrial nations have an obligation to compete fairly to benefit the rest of the world. I’m optimistic and don’t care about the negative aspects that always surface during the process. Once the USA finds a cure to the most recent Chinese Virus this will further the noble cause.

Depends on who defines "fairly". As far as I can see it, they competed fairly-ish until US saw that China is getting a bit too successful. The rest you know.

 

[yeeeeman]

The only reason China is the economic powerhouse that it is is that they treat their workers like slaves, they're essentially indentured servants being paid barely enough to live. And the rest of the first world looked the other way because of how profitable it is. I'd gladly pay an extra hundred dollars or more for a phone knowing it was manufactured in a humane way. The working conditions are so bad that some factories have suicide nets on their buildings.

It's time someone stands up to China and if you've been following what's been happening in the south China sea we are getting very close to war. And while trumps reason for hating China is very different from mine, his anti-China policy is indirectly making the changes I want to see.

That is true, I didn't state otherwise. I am all for liberalization and respect for human rights, but as you say, if this will happen, then the cost of everything we use will rise a lot. This is more of a vicious circle than a real blame that can be attributed to local business owners. I mean, come on, you really believe Apple didn't know Foxconn was using borderline slavery? But they covered it up until the press made it public. Every single US and other countries company like the tiny prices China offers and it is and was willing to close their eyes on this situation in order to gain $$$. So the blame is not only on the local chinese business men, it is also the companies that are part of the US economy. That is why I am saying US is a bit hypocrite when it comes and block China...
But anyway, US has been hypocrite in many situations. For example in the middle east, they officially offer support and peace there, but this is just a cover up for them to have control over oil. Same in many conflict zones. Anyway, a top rank country I guess it has to do these kinds of shady things in order to be no 1.

 

[Shadowboxer]

That is true, I didn't state otherwise. I am all for liberalization and respect for human rights, but as you say, if this will happen, then the cost of everything we use will rise a lot. This is more of a vicious circle than a real blame that can be attributed to local business owners. I mean, come on, you really believe Apple didn't know Foxconn was using borderline slavery? But they covered it up until the press made it public. Every single US and other countries company like the tiny prices China offers and it is and was willing to close their eyes on this situation in order to gain $$$. So the blame is not only on the local chinese business men, it is also the companies that are part of the US economy. That is why I am saying US is a bit hypocrite when it comes and block China...
But anyway, US has been hypocrite in many situations. For example in the middle east, they officially offer support and peace there, but this is just a cover up for them to have control over oil. Same in many conflict zones. Anyway, a top rank country I guess it has to do these kinds of shady things in order to be no 1.

The sad part is everyone focuses on Apple. But in the Chinese factory world all the employees want to work for Apple. The fact is if you buy another brand of anything made in China then the workers were probably treated even worse than the Apple workers. Of course this is for Apples production, for components that go in Apple devices Made by other manufacturers things are different. But these days you really can’t choose another brand, they will all be using Chinese slave labour. I believe there was an outfit called “fairphone” but I don’t know much about it.

I read a book recently by an anthropologist who makes the case that the worst conditions humans have ever lived since the dawn of their existence are humans who work in factories in China.

 

[Daniele 00]

The only reason China is the economic powerhouse that it is is that they treat their workers like slaves

not even Half truth.... I'dd say this is just western propaganda.
My wife is thai and I lived in thai for several months. Asians are way more active and productive of us, western. This is basic reason why Asia will lead the future.

 

[Irata]

I read a book recently by an anthropologist who makes the case that the worst conditions humans have ever lived since the dawn of their existence are humans who work in factories in China.

That I very much doubt. I think forced laborers in the third Reich and the Soviet Union would disagree. Foreign manual laborers in the richer Middle East countries probably as well and also factory workers / miners in Western countries 150+ years ago.

 

[Dyper]

not even Half truth.... I'dd say this is just western propaganda.
My wife is thai and I lived in thai for several months. Asians are way more active and productive of us, western. This is basic reason why Asia will lead the future.

It’s about time Asia step up. SKorea, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam have shown the way, India and China have 1/3 of the worlds population.
They should’ve been number one 20 years ago.

I would love nothing more than to see the USA China and India partner up on everything. 7 billion people do not need to be fighting for resources.

We need a new enemy like a Comet, Asteroid or Global Warming. It’s never the people who are bad but the competing systems.

Maybe in 10 years VIA might have a Quad CPU faster than my 4790s. I don’t want more cores, faster/cooler cores, more cache.

 

[candle_86]

This is posturing... in the long run, the leaders will be those with the most important resource - HUMANS!

China has over a billion people - it's only a matter of time before they catch up to, then surpass the US...

Then, eventually, India will follow suit.

With advanced technologies and the internet, keeping things secret becomes almost impossible... so a smaller nation's reliance on superior tech (aka, the US) will fall by the wayside.

Many Europeans understood this decades ago - and united as the EU.... of course, the UK has thrown a monkeywrench into that... but the only hope to stay a "leader" in tomorrow's world is to have a large population.

Your aware Chi as population is estimated to shrink by 30% in the next 30 years because of the one child policy right? China is about to have an elderly crisis on their hands. The majority of their population is over 40 and there isn't a quick fix for this. It will end up bankrupting China

 

[tkabou]

China is not dependent on the US or Taiwan.

CHINA will do just fine without either.

China has dominion over Asia and Southeast Asia - and many would argue South America and Africa.

But it shouldn't come to this. Trump's trade war is anti-free market and Americans are quickly going to realize that America outsourcing inflation to China in exchange for manufactured goods was allowing Americans to live a quality of life their productivity did not justify.

Simply shifting production to impoverished people in India or anywhere else isn't changing the basic facts.

America's going deeper and deeper in debt and isn't productive.

$30,000,000,000,000 in debt by the end of Trump's presidency.

Why do you support communists?

 

[Dyper]

Your aware Chi as population is estimated to shrink by 30% in the next 30 years because of the one child policy right? China is about to have an elderly crisis on their hands. The majority of their population is over 40 and there isn't a quick fix for this. It will end up bankrupting China

True but automation will fix that. They’re education is focused and if they only have 600,000,000 people they’ll be capable. They study hard too, poor kids are up until 10pm doing advanced math, etc.
But we teach gender awareness, social justice and other worthless topics.

Math is problem solving which in turn creates innovation.
Its why we led in so many fields for so long.
Thank God we have immigrants wanting to succeed coming here and excellent private schools.

 

[Squid Surprise]

Your aware Chi as population is estimated to shrink by 30% in the next 30 years because of the one child policy right? China is about to have an elderly crisis on their hands. The majority of their population is over 40 and there isn't a quick fix for this. It will end up bankrupting China

Even if they actually shrink their population by 30% - which I’ll believe when it happens - they’d still have more than triple the population of the US...

 

[candle_86]

Even if they actually shrink their population by 30% - which I’ll believe when it happens - they’d still have more than triple the population of the US...

That may be, but population alone won't win,China's economy is entirely dependant on the west,and despite what others think the West is in a powerful position with Asia. Korea and Japan don't want to dour relations, nor does the Philippines or Taiwan. The reason being they want to keep our military presecense because it checks China's ambitions in the region. Those countries don't trust China, nor does Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos ECT, everyone with interests in the South China sea distrusts the Chinese, that's why they remain friendly with Western States, China would happily seize the entire region for it's rich minerals and oil deposits if the US pulled out of the region.

 

[Squid Surprise]

That may be, but population alone won't win,China's economy is entirely dependant on the west,and despite what others think the West is in a powerful position with Asia. Korea and Japan don't want to dour relations, nor does the Philippines or Taiwan. The reason being they want to keep our military presecense because it checks China's ambitions in the region. Those countries don't trust China, nor does Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos ECT, everyone with interests in the South China sea distrusts the Chinese, that's why they remain friendly with Western States, China would happily seize the entire region for it's rich minerals and oil deposits if the US pulled out of the region.

This is short-term thinking.... long term, China will dominate Asia simply by dint of its population... which leads to superior tech, military, etc...
China ISN’T entirely dependent on the west - and gets less so every year.

 

[Dyper]

I heard the same story in 2002. Probably hear it again when the Chinese citizens vote out those wealthy communists.

 

[Darth Shiv]

China is not dependent on the US or Taiwan.

CHINA will do just fine without either.

China has dominion over Asia and Southeast Asia - and many would argue South America and Africa.

But it shouldn't come to this. Trump's trade war is anti-free market and Americans are quickly going to realize that America outsourcing inflation to China in exchange for manufactured goods was allowing Americans to live a quality of life their productivity did not justify.

Simply shifting production to impoverished people in India or anywhere else isn't changing the basic facts.

America's going deeper and deeper in debt and isn't productive.

$30,000,000,000,000 in debt by the end of Trump's presidency.

Free trade trashing first world manufacturing combined with China allowed to purchase foreign assets like ports and farms has gotten us to where we are today. Trump won an election with EXACTLY this as part of the problem. Mainstream Dems and Republicans would NOT address how free trade has destroyed huge sectors of people's work due to inequitable wages.

Yes the trade-off is goods. But it comes at an extremely HEAVY cost. The only people who win in America from this is the company owners who make billions or close to a trillion. China and low wage countries make the rest. The average punter and more particularly the lower and middle class of the US (and most other 1st world countries) MASSIVELY suffer from this structure.

Free trade has failed America. It has produced an objectively massively wealth disparate society. Trump's actions will of course cause economic pain but it is a necessary thing to redress. This one way movement of wealth away from average Americans to the omega wealthy is something that has reached a breaking point.

What Trump is forcing companies to address as well is return to domestic manfacturing. This is the key - it's not just punitive against China. It's direct negotiation with large companies to restore domestic. With the pandemic, every Govt in the world will be looking at securing certain goods in this regard too. There is now a heavy mandate.

Now I'm no fan of Trump generally speaking but you have to be extremely naive to think that he won the election by fluke. It was no fluke. He had some real goals in mind and he knew establishment candidates had no answers to his campaign - Hillary pretended wealth disparity didn't exist and incrementalism would be fine which is absolute garbage. Trump absolutely demolished the other GOP candidates. Ted Cruz 2nd runner? That's hilarious.

The next election though the electorate now sees he also comes with a LOT of deficits so they can weigh that up against the alternatives.

As for China, losing US as a trading partner - certainly this is a heavy blow due to the trading clout the US has. Will they still overtake the US as the largest economy in the world? Almost inevitably. The US is trying to bully other nations to prevent it by the look of it. It's going to be a rough time globally.

 

[Darth Shiv]

That may be, but population alone won't win,China's economy is entirely dependant on the west,and despite what others think the West is in a powerful position with Asia. Korea and Japan don't want to dour relations, nor does the Philippines or Taiwan. The reason being they want to keep our military presecense because it checks China's ambitions in the region. Those countries don't trust China, nor does Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos ECT, everyone with interests in the South China sea distrusts the Chinese, that's why they remain friendly with Western States, China would happily seize the entire region for it's rich minerals and oil deposits if the US pulled out of the region.

US military in the region is now in big question. China has secured many strategic locations that has Australia re-evaluating their regional security plans including nuclear capability. Traditionally our nuclear deterrent was our US relations but it has reached the point where we consider within a few decades the US unable to be counted on due to China's expanding foothold. We now have defense experts proposing domestic nuclear capability for national security. These experts are also very much anti-nuclear but propose it out of necessity as deterrent.

 

[Dyper]

Free trade trashing first world manufacturing combined with China allowed to purchase foreign assets like ports and farms has gotten us to where we are today. Trump won an election with EXACTLY this as part of the problem. Mainstream Dems and Republicans would NOT address how free trade has destroyed huge sectors of people's work due to inequitable wages.

Yes the trade-off is goods. But it comes at an extremely HEAVY cost. The only people who win in America from this is the company owners who make billions or close to a trillion. China and low wage countries make the rest. The average punter and more particularly the lower and middle class of the US (and most other 1st world countries) MASSIVELY suffer from this structure.

Free trade has failed America. It has produced an objectively massively wealth disparate society. Trump's actions will of course cause economic pain but it is a necessary thing to redress. This one way movement of wealth away from average Americans to the omega wealthy is something that has reached a breaking point.

What Trump is forcing companies to address as well is return to domestic manfacturing. This is the key - it's not just punitive against China. It's direct negotiation with large companies to restore domestic. With the pandemic, every Govt in the world will be looking at securing certain goods in this regard too. There is now a heavy mandate.

Now I'm no fan of Trump generally speaking but you have to be extremely naive to think that he won the election by fluke. It was no fluke. He had some real goals in mind and he knew establishment candidates had no answers to his campaign - Hillary pretended wealth disparity didn't exist and incrementalism would be fine which is absolute garbage. Trump absolutely demolished the other GOP candidates. Ted Cruz 2nd runner? That's hilarious.

The next election though the electorate now sees he also comes with a LOT of deficits so they can weigh that up against the alternatives.

Exactly why self sufficiency is back to being popular. Pretending that a service based economy with 350 million people is sustainable no longer sells.

I think the establishment only pretends to want to replace Trump. VP Biden is not a serious candidate, he can’t win, nor do the elites want him to. They’re getting rich, and can continue their moral posturing while he does the dirty work. They want 4 more years.

In 2024 they can waltz into a booming economy with new trade agreements and some real candidates. He’s their perfect weapon. Plus if American Media says Bidens the winner, that’s code for “oh shucks, we lost” (how much will we make?)

 

[candle_86]

US military in the region is now in big question. China has secured many strategic locations that has Australia re-evaluating their regional security plans including nuclear capability. Traditionally our nuclear deterrent was our US relations but it has reached the point where we consider within a few decades the US unable to be counted on due to China's expanding foothold. We now have defense experts proposing domestic nuclear capability for national security. These experts are also very much anti-nuclear but propose it out of necessity as deterrent.

I don't think so, the US 7th fleet is still and plans to remain forward deployed to Japan, and the Chinese navy isn't an actual threat, the top naval officers and analysts say China has a long way to go before they can compete with France, Brittian or India let alone the US. They lack a nuclear submarine force, and the subs they do have are considered noisey, their carrier killer is untested and the navy us about to deploy directed energy weapons to counter such a threat anyway. Right now the US Navy can operate unopposed and China knows it.

 

[Squid Surprise]

I don't think so, the US 7th fleet is still and plans to remain forward deployed to Japan, and the Chinese navy isn't an actual threat, the top naval officers and analysts say China has a long way to go before they can compete with France, Brittian or India let alone the US. They lack a nuclear submarine force, and the subs they do have are considered noisey, their carrier killer is untested and the navy us about to deploy directed energy weapons to counter such a threat anyway. Right now the US Navy can operate unopposed and China knows it.

I don’t think you understood “long term”.... yes, the US is superior NOW.... but not for long...