Huawei won't get any more TSMC chips after September

[candle_86]

I don’t think you understood “long term”.... yes, the US is superior NOW.... but not for long...

No I understand it just fine, China is 20 years behind and we outspend them in development and r&d. The day will never come where China will have the ability to tell our navy what they can't do.

 

[QuantumPhysics]

Free trade trashing first world manufacturing combined with China allowed to purchase foreign assets like ports and farms has gotten us to where we are today. Trump won an election with EXACTLY this as part of the problem. Mainstream Dems and Republicans would NOT address how free trade has destroyed huge sectors of people's work due to inequitable wages.

Yes the trade-off is goods. But it comes at an extremely HEAVY cost. The only people who win in America from this is the company owners who make billions or close to a trillion. China and low wage countries make the rest. The average punter and more particularly the lower and middle class of the US (and most other 1st world countries) MASSIVELY suffer from this structure.

Free trade has failed America. It has produced an objectively massively wealth disparate society. Trump's actions will of course cause economic pain but it is a necessary thing to redress. This one way movement of wealth away from average Americans to the omega wealthy is something that has reached a breaking point.

What Trump is forcing companies to address as well is return to domestic manfacturing. This is the key - it's not just punitive against China. It's direct negotiation with large companies to restore domestic. With the pandemic, every Govt in the world will be looking at securing certain goods in this regard too. There is now a heavy mandate.

Now I'm no fan of Trump generally speaking but you have to be extremely naive to think that he won the election by fluke. It was no fluke. He had some real goals in mind and he knew establishment candidates had no answers to his campaign - Hillary pretended wealth disparity didn't exist and incrementalism would be fine which is absolute garbage. Trump absolutely demolished the other GOP candidates. Ted Cruz 2nd runner? That's hilarious.

The next election though the electorate now sees he also comes with a LOT of deficits so they can weigh that up against the alternatives.

As for China, losing US as a trading partner - certainly this is a heavy blow due to the trading clout the US has. Will they still overtake the US as the largest economy in the world? Almost inevitably. The US is trying to bully other nations to prevent it by the look of it. It's going to be a rough time globally.

#1 There is no contest in the history of man where you lose by 3,000,000 votes and still win.

A fluke is a fluke and the first thing Democrats need to do when they retake power is abolish the Electoral college.

#2 I hear what you're saying: but I think where your mistake lays is actually believing we had a free market to begin with. We didn't. This country gained its riches with slave labor and then used controlled immigration to create a new underclass after slaves were freed. Now Trump's booted out immigrants to pretend he's "Created jobs".

The reality is, we've been losing jobs since the disastrous Bush administration.

 

[Squid Surprise]

No I understand it just fine, China is 20 years behind and we outspend them in development and r&d. The day will never come where China will have the ability to tell our navy what they can't do.

First of all - 20 years behind? Care to give any actual proof of this?

Second of all: LONG TERM - even if the US actually is 20 years ahead, it won't be for very long - it helps to have more than triple the manpower...

Third: Since when is China's R&D spending actually public knowledge? They "announce" a military budget (I think it was something like a trillion Yuan), but we have no way of knowing what they actually spend - but I think it would be fair to assume it's a LOT more than you think.
https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/ for some more reading on that...

Lastly: "Never" is a word that should NEVER be used (yes, I am aware of the irony)... There is no reason to believe that the US will remain the #1 power in the world forever... history teaches us that no one country/empire remains on top forever... Ask the Romans... or the Ottomans... or the British... I see no reason to believe that the US will somehow buck this trend.

 

[candle_86]

First of all - 20 years behind? Care to give any actual proof of this?

Second of all: LONG TERM - even if the US actually is 20 years ahead, it won't be for very long - it helps to have more than triple the manpower...

Third: Since when is China's R&D spending actually public knowledge? They "announce" a military budget (I think it was something like a trillion Yuan), but we have no way of knowing what they actually spend - but I think it would be fair to assume it's a LOT more than you think.
https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/ for some more reading on that...

Lastly: "Never" is a word that should NEVER be used (yes, I am aware of the irony)... There is no reason to believe that the US will remain the #1 power in the world forever... history teaches us that no one country/empire remains on top forever... Ask the Romans... or the Ottomans... or the British... I see no reason to believe that the US will somehow buck this trend.

Sure China's current military tech is very similar in capability to US mid 90's capability, while their submarine force is more akin to the 70's US sub fleet. We will keep China bottled up simply because if they really piss us off we maintain a massive advantage in firepower and their billion man army can't make it here, because we could torpedo every single transport, then launch ballistic missiles into Begin from the south China sea, and China knows this, and this capability isn't going anywhere, look at future US plans for our military. Directed energy weapons for shoot-down of incoming weapons faster which could render missiles obsolete as once they are deployed they will quickly spread to the rest of the fleet, meaning your gonna need to again fire slugs to sink ships which puts you in range of carrier aircraft, which likewise are operating generation 2 stealth fighters, china is very much behind on stealth technology, in that area they seem to be where America was in the 80's, and they seem to be prioritizing defensive capability over offensive, so don't expect major improvements in their stealth capability.

As for how we remain the number 1 power, what Rome didn't have, what England didn't have was the 2nd largest nuclear arsenal the world has ever known, and I would hope should a foreign power attempt to topple our power that we would unleash nuclear hell onto their country.

 

[candle_86]

#1 There is no contest in the history of man where you lose by 3,000,000 votes and still win.

A fluke is a fluke and the first thing Democrats need to do when they retake power is abolish the Electoral college.

#2 I hear what you're saying: but I think where your mistake lays is actually believing we had a free market to begin with. We didn't. This country gained its riches with slave labor and then used controlled immigration to create a new underclass after slaves were freed. Now Trump's booted out immigrants to pretend he's "Created jobs".

The reality is, we've been losing jobs since the disastrous Bush administration.

Nope I wont support any attempt to abolish the electoral college, America isn't a democracy its a federal republic, each state is it's own entity, to abolish it requires an amendment which 3/4th of states must pass, 3/4 of states won't pass that kind of amendment, and lawyers are already on standby to sue in the event the interstate compact enters into force as it directly violates the constitution and will cause a constitutional crisis. Trump won because Hillary wasn't popular outside of the coastal regions plain and simple, and the coastal regions don't decide what's best for America, go figure.

Any attempt to override the Constitution would be meet with immediate civil war and revolt, I know I'd take up arms, I have no interest in California deciding what's best in Texas, it's why I have an issue with so many of them moving here to begin with. Any president that attempts to pass an executive action to abolish the EC will be meet with civil war, and don't count on the Army to protect the president, many will leave during civil war as their alligence is also to their family and their political ideology and their interpretation of their oath to uphold the Constitution.

 

[Squid Surprise]

Sure China's current military tech is very similar in capability to US mid 90's capability, while their submarine force is more akin to the 70's US sub fleet. We will keep China bottled up simply because if they really piss us off we maintain a massive advantage in firepower and their billion man army can't make it here, because we could torpedo every single transport, then launch ballistic missiles into Begin from the south China sea, and China knows this, and this capability isn't going anywhere, look at future US plans for our military. Directed energy weapons for shoot-down of incoming weapons faster which could render missiles obsolete as once they are deployed they will quickly spread to the rest of the fleet, meaning your gonna need to again fire slugs to sink ships which puts you in range of carrier aircraft, which likewise are operating generation 2 stealth fighters, china is very much behind on stealth technology, in that area they seem to be where America was in the 80's, and they seem to be prioritizing defensive capability over offensive, so don't expect major improvements in their stealth capability.

As for how we remain the number 1 power, what Rome didn't have, what England didn't have was the 2nd largest nuclear arsenal the world has ever known, and I would hope should a foreign power attempt to topple our power that we would unleash nuclear hell onto their country.

You state all this as if it's fact... care to provide any credible sources?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say you voted for Trump...

 

[candle_86]

You state all this as if it's fact... care to provide any credible sources?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say you voted for Trump...

I'm not going out an locating every source I've read in the last 6 months on the topic. I will say it's all from reputable military sites from ex inteligence and a few from former navy war collage instructors. If you want to see the facts go read them.

 

[Squid Surprise]

I'm not going out an locating every source I've read in the last 6 months on the topic. I will say it's all from reputable military sites from ex inteligence and a few from former navy war collage instructors. If you want to see the facts go read them.

So in short.... you have no proof... feel free to provide SOME if you can’t provide everything... let me guess, COVID is a global hoax?

 

[cliffordcooley]

let me guess, COVID is a global hoax?

For the most part, yes it is. And BTW I did vote for Trump. And I will do so again.

 

[candle_86]

So in short.... you have no proof... feel free to provide SOME if you can’t provide everything... let me guess, COVID is a global hoax?

Nope lots of proof, if you'd read anything on military times for instance you'd get an idea. I don't have time nor want to teach you.

 

[Squid Surprise]

Nope lots of proof, if you'd read anything on military times for instance you'd get an idea. I don't have time nor want to teach you.

Lol... I know plenty of military history... but, once again, I defy you to PROVE that China is 20 years behind... and even better, prove that they will remain that way indefinitely...

I do love battles of wits with unarmed opponents though - so feel free to try again

Here's some nice reading by the way...

An Interactive Look at the U.S.-China Military Scorecard

To advance the public debate, RAND Project AIR FORCE used open, unclassified sources to compile 'The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power.' Use this interactive graphic to explore the operational areas covered in the report.

www.rand.org

You'll note how already, China has caught up to a bunch of the US strengths... it's only a matter of time until they completely surpass them.

 

[Reehahs]

What, exactly, are you referring to? If you are talking about the United States history with forced labor it might be interesting to know that my family didn't come to the US until the 1930s. With the ways things are manufactured these days I don't have the option to buy something made in a humane way at any price.

The lack of humane existing option is due to how the current rulers have made things be. As long as you live in a democracy, your vote has the power to make a difference. If that is not enough, then the right people need to stand for the office as well as campaign to their fellow citizens.

The US still has forced labour, for as long as the prison system remains private and the inmate are forced to work as slaves for business rather than doing community service or work for non-profits.

 

[cliffordcooley]

The US still has forced labour, for as long as the prison system remains private and the inmate are forced to work as slaves for business rather than doing community service or work for non-profits.

I genuinely only have one issue with the prison system. Your time is only used to pay back fines. Your time is not used to pay restitution for reasons behind your incarceration.

So in the end prison sentence is only another way to collect taxes, instead of being used for rehabilitation. And when you get out. You are faced with even more problems than the ones that led to imprisonment.

A prison sentence only sets you up for more failure. All in the name of collecting more taxes. I call it the State and Federal big business.

 

[yRaz]

The lack of humane existing option is due to how the current rulers have made things be. As long as you live in a democracy, your vote has the power to make a difference. If that is not enough, then the right people need to stand for the office as well as campaign to their fellow citizens.

The US still has forced labour, for as long as the prison system remains private and the inmate are forced to work as slaves for business rather than doing community service or work for non-profits.

I love how people target me directly as an American when I talk about not being okay with forced labor. Do you know who I voted for? Do you know where and how I spend my money? At what part does me being born in the United States make me a supporter of forced labor? How does being born in the US delegitimize my opinion that slave labor isn't okay?

Everytime I post about my hatred of Chinese slave labor you always comment on my posts, why? I'm not saying don't reply, but I'm constantly accused of being a hypocrite simply because I'm a US citizen.

 

[Bp968]

I think discussion is very much derailed here and feelings are running high. Forget USA and China for a bit as they will be fighting each other for a very long time and look at it from the privacy angle.

Huawei has been flagged multiple times by multiple nations as security risk and is known to have backdoors installed in their devices and telecom equipment.
To say that this is simply due to USA trying to stop China is just amusingly naive.
We can see how allied countries who even laugh at USA for other proposals have taken this one very seriously and started blocking Huawei. This is a real and dangerous security threat and to just make it into a nationalistic Us vs Them issue is wilful ignorance.

How about we start holding companies who have become mass espionage tools to be responsible for their actions and stop defending them?

The CCP has been using private companies and chinese citizens as a massive spy net for decades. Even the Russians are getting tired of getting robbed every time they let anything get manufactured over there or allow chinese engineers into their facilities to "help". China has always been massively nationalistic and top down. People love to hate on trump and the US but the simple fact is that the US, like most of the EU, has pretty extensive checks and balances on power. Trump might think he can do whatever he wants be he most definitely can't (as has been demonstrated time and time again). China on the other hand can do whatever they feel works (Hong Kong and the Uryigurs(sp?) are the most recent examples).

India is working hard right now to try and fill any gaps that get sliced open in the current US/China feud and at least they are a democratic nation. The US system of government might be frustrating and often inefficient, but its no CCP.

The entire world knew they were playing with fire when dealing with the CCP but they were willing to risk it for the profits. And the CCP did what they do best, they played the long game. Now we have an advanced, wealthy, communist nation with advanced and almost parity level weapons that has the ability and will to use them. They also have the income, and the taxation flexibility to increase their military spending many fold. They will be completely unwilling to take 2nd place and if push comes to shove they can and will employ every weapon they have available to do so (cyber, space, nuclear, conventional, economic, etc).

The US spent years and trillions chasing around rats in 3rd world deserts and constantly worried about Iran and ignored the actual real threat.

When China finally does become numba 1, don't expect it to treat the rest of us with respect or concern for our opinions (to put it nicely).

Really it comes down to those currently in power in the CCP. Do they want to accomplish some specific goal before they die? Anything could happen. Are they willing to setup a careful chain of power transfer and play the long game, even past their own life? If so, and if it works, then democratic nations are doomed since we by our very design can't think or plan much past 10 years anymore (and barely that long at this point).