Intel admits to Moore's Law hiccough

[Archean]

Intel has warned investors that following Moore's Law is getting increasingly difficult, as it admits to the first blip on the roadmap for the past several generations.
Moore's Law, named for Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, is the observation that the number of transistors found in complex integrated circuits like microprocessors doubles roughly every eighteen months - leading to a proportional increase in performance. While originally couched as a historical observation, Moore's rule has become a true law for the semiconductor industry which seeks to meet or exceed its expectations - and, generally, succeeds in doing so.

 

[wholesalestunna]

That's a very interesting article... It makes perfect sense though. I saw somewhere else that they think Moore's law will only last for another 10 years or so. Think there will be an adequate increase in technology to overcome that?

 

[dividebyzero]

Weird article that seems to point to Intel's supposed process node problem, when the actual issue is ASML's issues with volume (commercial) production- the principle reason that Intel began pouring funds into ASML's tooling program last year.

 

[Archean]

I must have missed that bit DBZ, thanks for sharing. Add this to the above and things look bit different.

Intel’s 14nm milkshake: It’s better than yours

 

[DelJo63]

There is a finite upper limit to the thesis. once we're making transistors at the atomic level, we hit the wall. manufacturing techniques have always been the bottleneck.

 

[captaincranky]

OK, here's my question, "are Intel's investors so insufferably stupid, that they have to be 'warned', Moore's 'Law' will eventually fail"?

If "size matters", (and it does, despite centuries protestations to the contrary), then, 'lack of size' must matter as well".

Today's manufacturing tolerances are so tight, they would have been unimaginable 50 years age. Just in the past 10, we've gone from 90nm down to 22nm, and are looking toward 14mn.

When you consider the spectral wavelength of sodium illumination comes in at about 580nm, it gives one pause to wonder why people that aren't involved with the process of moving semiconductor technology forward, would persist in believing they're entitled to have Moore's Law. continue to hold true, ad infinitum.

 

[dividebyzero]

OK, here's my question, "are Intel's investors so insufferably stupid, that they have to be 'warned', Moore's 'Law' will eventually fail"?

Reading between the lines, I'd say it is more a case of Intel laying the groundwork for softening the blow that process nodes aren't going to adhere to Intel's self-imposed tick-tock cadence. A 22/14nm fab (either new build or refurb) is pushing $US6 billion a pop- 10nm looks like a $US10 billion per fab proposition. 10nm has already necessitated a move to 450nm diameter wafers and will likely mean more partnerships and longer service life to make each node viable given that Intel has a huge overcapacity issue. Fabbing for other companies (especially possible competitors) rocks the shareholder boat because it shows that Intel is actively seeking to share the risk and has substantial excess capacity. Intel does partnerships almost as well as Uzbekistan does Democracy, and certainly wouldn't offer foundry capacity if all was well.

 

[captaincranky]

I'm told that God gave out the ten commandments on stone, not silicon tablets.

And so it goes that, "Moore's Law", is still the work of a windbag, desperately in need of a reality check.

Furthermoore, (see what I did there?) a windbag is a windbag, is still a windbag, no matter how talented or prescient, said individual is, or believes them self to be.

Arguably, Intel is in the wrong business in the first place. After all, you can get 100 bucks a pop for a pair of sneakers, simply by virtue of the fact that some semi literate crap hole from the NBA, has their name plastered on them. Well, come to think of it , there's also the wildly tacky, gaudy color schemes, engineered to catch the eye of grade school dropouts everywhere.

I'm still waiting for all the farmers to die out, and all the gamers to wake up one afternoon to empty refrigerators.

So I think,, for the preservation of the species, that we should invest more research money into making robot farmers, instead of more chip fabs anyway.

And then, sterilize everyone who exists below the mean poverty level of their area, and outlaw smartphones altogether. After all, can a thriving economy really exist, by having governments printing welfare checks, and welfare recipients handing those monies to the telecoms to pay their phone bills in a closed loop? . But I digress............

 

[dividebyzero]

And so it goes that, "Moore's Law", is still the work of a windbag, desperately in need of a reality check.

Well, it worked for the day. Gordon Moore only extrapolated the transistor density for 10 years (up until 1975) based on five years of advancement shown at Fairchild Semiconductor. The fact that the model turned out to be pretty precise turned an opinion into a "law"...when Moore's Law doesn't actually fit any definition of a law

Furthermoore, (see what I did there?) a windbag is a windbag, is still a windbag, no matter how talented or prescient, said individual is, or believes them self to be.

The guy had a pretty decent track record. Of the semiconductor bigwigs he and Noyce are pretty far down the scale when it comes down to the hype vs ability factor- certainly less unhinged than Andy Grove (Stalinist pedant), William Shockley (racist crackpot), W. Jerry Sanders III (narcissistic dictator), and of course the irrepressible Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Gary Kildall on the software side.

Arguably, Intel is in the wrong business in the first place. After all, you can get 100 bucks a pop for a pair of sneakers, simply by virtue of the fact that some semi literate crap hole from the NBA, has their name plastered on them. Well, come to think of it , there's also the wildly tacky, gaudy color schemes, engineered to catch the eye of grade school dropouts everywhere.

Given the way the Ginger Hammer runs football, I would have thought the NFL would have been an ideal match for Intel....and for "semi literate crap holes" you'd be hard pressed to beat Aaron Hernandez, Ray Lewis, Rae Carruth, and most of the Jets, Raiders, Iggles (sorry), and Texans fan bases.

I'm still waiting for all the farmers to die out, and all the gamers to wake up one afternoon to empty refrigerators.

I'm not sure if high fructose corn syrup, taurine, caffeine, and that yellow dust they coat Dorito's with aren't already synthesized at industrial plants

So I think,, for the preservation of the species, that we should invest more research money into making robot farmers, instead of more chip fabs anyway.

That would be the American Way™. Spend a few trillion on autobot farmers producing GM high yield generic food cubes whilst giving a few trillion more to the US food combines to subsidize the price of anything with 90% saturated fat + carbohydrate content. Hard to believe the US health system isn't actually division of McDonalds.

And then, sterilize everyone who exists below the mean poverty level of their area,

William Shockley Approved. Tough break on the lower income percentile of constituents of Chevy Chase. It's probably even money that the poorest people in Section Five are more affluent than the top 1% of Bakersfield.

 

[LNCPapa]

Sure hope I can make the cut in CC's vision of the future.

 

[captaincranky]

Sure hope I can make the cut in CC's vision of the future.

Oh shucks Papa, I barely make the cut in my own "brave new world".

With that said, where I come from, crack dealers are the working class!.

Here the slumlords get rich off of Section 8 HUD, and nobody's food stamps can be cut off because they're below the level of "the working poor", who get punished by losing their benefits, to continue the care and feeding of my "neighbors"
The chief industry here is collecting lavish benefits for the care of foster children.

In my most notorious case, a woman managed to take in SIX of her own nephew's "special needs kids", be granted "permanent custody", buy a $30,000 white metallic SUV, and move out of Philly to Delaware on the proceeds. Keep in mind this woman is "disabled" , (and collecting as such), herself. Where she finds people sufficiently stupid to almost completely take over the care for these kids, while she sits on her enormous 350 pound a** and pockets all the money, I have no idea.

So, until somebody tells me they're willing to accept personal taxation at a rate to subsidize these shenanigans commensurate with their sympathies, then they get call ma a racist. In the meantime, I'm going to campaign for the title of "pragmatist".

So, better class people of all races, creeds and national origins have fled this ghetto wasteland. And truth be told, I daresay I would have certainly liked to have done more with my life than to stay here myself. But heck, from time to time I like to invite people such as yourself over to "enjoy the view", see what exactly it is that you have managed to take flight from, and "enjoy the gentle, but insistent strains of crack w***es pounding on doors in the middle of the night", looking for a fix.

But I'll tell you what, after you get back home, you'll say, "boy that CC wasn't joking about that place".

What does this all have to do with Intel? Stay tuned. Intel needs to grow more, better, & faster chips, for the mobile market. That will help the telecoms grow into large monopolies, and hasten the transfer of drugs and money in a way that the police will be unable to track...

 

[captaincranky]

Well, it worked for the day. Gordon Moore only extrapolated the transistor density for 10 years (up until 1975) based on five years of advancement shown at Fairchild Semiconductor. The fact that the model turned out to be pretty precise turned an opinion into a "law"...when Moore's Law doesn't actually fit any definition of a law

The guy had a pretty decent track record. Of the semiconductor bigwigs he and Noyce are pretty far down the scale when it comes down to the hype vs ability factor- certainly less unhinged than Andy Grove (Stalinist pedant), William Shockley (racist crackpot), W. Jerry Sanders III (narcissistic dictator), and of course the irrepressible Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Gary Kildall on the software side.

This does serve to illustrate why the sycophants that have followed, converted a simple observation into mindless, dogmatic, reiteration, and are trying to pass it off as a "law".

In fairness though, "The Peter Principle", once the topic of a controversial book, has been been converted to "Peter's Law", and is taught that way in contemporary sociology courses.

Given the way the Ginger Hammer runs football, I would have thought the NFL would have been an ideal match for Intel....and for "semi literate crap holes" you'd be hard pressed to beat Aaron Hernandez, Ray Lewis, Rae Carruth, and most of the Jets, Raiders, Iggles (sorry), and Texans fan bases.

First let me publish this disclaimer, "I can spell E-A-G-L-E-S correctly, without needing the exposure of, or any prompting from, the local TV station(s). In fact, the sight of that many beer guts, whose owners desperately try to posture as bodybuilders while mindlessly grunting "our team's" name, produces a desperate grab for the remote control, and its attendant mute button.

That notwithstanding, it's not "Iggles", at least not to me. I spell it....(wait for it)....eeG-Holes"....

All kidding aside, Nick Foles, given his present success at the QB position, surely must be categorized as having, "an alluring rustic charm", in lieu of those other nasty adjectives that I was bandying about earlier.

In fact, he's even precipitated touchdowns by throwing the ball to Riley Cooper, and you can put that into whatever context you choose...

I'm not sure if high fructose corn syrup, taurine, caffeine, and that yellow dust they coat Dorito's with aren't already synthesized at industrial plants.

They probably have the same correlation to food, as crack does to cocaine.

That would be the American Way™. Spend a few trillion on autobot farmers producing GM high yield generic food cubes whilst giving a few trillion more to the US food combines to subsidize the price of anything with 90% saturated fat + carbohydrate content. Hard to believe the US health system isn't actually division of McDonalds.

I was thinking we could tallow the fat out of morbidly obese heart attack victims, in an innovative, aggressive, and bold approach to, "recycling"...!

William Shockley Approved. Tough break on the lower income percentile of constituents of Chevy Chase. It's probably even money that the poorest people in Section Five are more affluent than the top 1% of Bakersfield.

Please refer to post #11.....