Intel warns of continuing 14nm shortage but says 10nm sales will be strong

[mongeese]

The big picture: Intel began the shift to 10nm years ago, and in the process, failed to maintain their 14nm production. That caused a dangerous shortage of 14nm chips that will persist until Q3 this year when the first mobile 10nm processors will launch.

Intel’s CEO Bob Swan delivered the bad news at a recent earnings call, dropping Intel’s shares by 10% -- their worst fall in over a year although the stock had been trading at record levels as of late. While their Q1 earnings were the same $16.1 billion as last year, Q2 is going to be a tough one with far fewer processors sold than investors would like.

Despite investing $1.5 billion back into 14nm last year, the CPU shortage has been enough to make Microsoft and device OEMs point the finger of blame at Intel during their own earnings calls. Custom PC builders have arguably been hit the hardest, with Intel listing stupid prices and handing out the dregs. But soon all that will be in the past, promises Swan.

“Our supply constraints have had a disruptive impact on our customers and ecosystem. We've committed never again to be a constraint on our customers' growth. We've increased capacity to improve our position in the second half, although product mix will continue to be a challenge in the third quarter as our teams align available supply with customer demand,” Swan said.

“Given the progress we've made on 10nm, we're going to be shifting more units in the fourth quarter than we previously anticipated.”

Intel already has a healthy and growing stockpile of 10nm mobile parts, which they’ll be handing out to OEMs to test and play with shortly. And over the past four months, Intel has nearly doubled the rate of production. A significant release of 10nm-based laptops is expected to arrive in time for the holiday season, beating AMD to 7nm in mobile and providing strong revenue in Q3 and Q4.

Of course, words are just words and Intel doesn’t have the best track record. While Swan paints a rosy picture, he’s left out 10nm desktop parts and 10nm performance laptop parts, which could arrive as late as 2022 according to leaks. AMD’s 7nm is expected to be announced in a mere month.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/79834-intel-warns-continuing-14nm-shortage-but-10nm-sales.html

 

[Vulcanproject]

That picture of Bob Swan

Shady car salesman.

As a further thought, this year is shaping up to be a dream for AMD. An absolute dream if Zen 2 is as good as we hope. Not only will OEMs want to buy AMD if Zen 2 is very good, but they will HAVE to if they want to build enough machines during Intel's supply contraints.

 

[Uncle Al]

Hmmmmmm ..... sounds like time to look at Intel stock and consider a buy once they dip below 15% of current market value .......

 

[Hardware Geek]

Hmmmmmm ..... sounds like time to look at Intel stock and consider a buy once they dip below 15% of current market value .......

With the anticipated delay in desktop performance parts at 10nm, I'd personally wait until it drops at least 20% before I would consider buying their stock.

 

[hahahanoobs]

Now would be a great time for AMD to capitalize on Intel's current struggles.

I mean come on, if Ryzen 2 is a month away, there is no reason for AMD to not come full force with some viscious marketing. I always worry when AMD is quiet so close to launch time.

 

[Hardware Geek]

Now would be a great time for AMD to capitalize on Intel's current struggles.

I mean come on, if Ryzen 2 is a month away, there is no reason for AMD to not come full force with some viscious marketing. I always worry when AMD is quiet so close to launch time.

Intel keeps digging its own hole and every time they announce available for (pick whatever quarter you want) they fail to deliver. With all the bad press, I'm hoping AMD is being quiet so it can announce near immediate availability of ryzen 2 and at least have a Navi demonstration with a June or July availability.

 

[seeprime]

Intel traditionally made all of its plants identical, so where a wafer was processed made no difference. The problem with that was that no one in management foresaw, or believed if they were warned, the issues that this created when 10nm layers lined up imperfectly, creating edge issues and high failure rates in production. The bad chips naturally weren't shipped, or Intel would be hurting big time. Still, it was an expensive learning process for them. Larger traces with an atom or two not perfectly aligned are not a problem. So, they're staying with 14nm, wherever possible, for a while longer. Intel has to undo decades of thinking about how to make chips now that traces can be made where you can count the atoms on your fingers. Reconfiguring every plant is expensive. They, according to Paul Thurrott, created a shortage that doesn't really exist, and raised prices to pay for their forced maintenance to improved processes.

Edit: it's to its.

 

[wiyosaya]

Translation: We're in deep

To me, this sounds like a typical PR release from a company that knows it has problems yet wants to deflect to keep its investors calm.

 

[munchy22]

Incant believe it im actually ready to change to amd and im a intel fan boy whos held off upgrading 2 years now but desktop in 2022 is a joke. Intel has becone a big joke and their pricingis a big joke. Lets see what amd offer. If their single core simply matches intels and they have a resonable priced core woth hyper thread equivilent im gone. To manu white lies and broken promises baxked up by the rebadged i7 called i9 just to maxamise profits from their consuners is more than enought.

 

[rub900]

I went to AMD when INTEL refused to let me exchange a defective chip. I am done with INTEL for that and security issues.

 

[Nocturne]

Now would be a great time for AMD to capitalize on Intel's current struggles.

I mean come on, if Ryzen 2 is a month away, there is no reason for AMD to not come full force with some viscious marketing. I always worry when AMD is quiet so close to launch time.

Intel keeps digging its own hole and every time they announce available for (pick whatever quarter you want) they fail to deliver. With all the bad press, I'm hoping AMD is being quiet so it can announce near immediate availability of ryzen 2 and at least have a Navi demonstration with a June or July availability.

They will probably come ready to hammer them, Intel is already losing alot of marketshare to AMD in almost every market, I think Intel got way too complacent being market dominant and Ryzen/Zen arch. just kicked them in the teeth.

 

[hahahanoobs]

They will probably come ready to hammer them, Intel is already losing alot of marketshare to AMD in almost every market, I think Intel got way too complacent being market dominant and Ryzen/Zen arch. just kicked them in the teeth.

Sure, but you can't sell a new product if consumers don't know how good it is and when they can buy it. Usually when AMD is this quiet so close to a launch, it's not a good sign. I was hoping this time would be different.

 

[Nocturne]

Sure, but you can't sell a new product if consumers don't know how good it is and when they can buy it. Usually when AMD is this quiet so close to a launch, it's not a good sign. I was hoping this time would be different.

We are going to have to wait and see, I have confidence in their CPU division GPU not so much. After Zen and Zen+ I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, for now at least.