Newly developed algorithm able to predict crime a week in advance with 90% accuracy

midian182

Posts: 8,015   +87
Staff member
WTF?! In what sounds suspiciously like the plot of Minority Report just without the precognitive psychics floating in a photon milk bath, an algorithm has been developed that can predict future crime one week in advance with an accuracy of 90%.

The algorithm was developed by social scientists at the University of Chicago who used historical data on violent crimes (homicides, assaults, and batteries) and property crimes (burglaries, thefts, and motor vehicle thefts) within the city to test and validate the model. These crimes were chosen as they are less likely to experience the kind of enforcement bias often present in drug-related and similar offenses.

By splitting cities into 1,000-square-foot spatial tiles, the algorithm is able to identify patterns and try to predict future crimes, which it does with a reported 90% accuracy, according to the study published in Nature Human Behavior.

It's not just Chicago where the algorithm had a seemingly precognitive ability to predict crime. The system worked just as well after feeding it data from other US cities: Atlanta, Austin, Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Portland, and San Francisco.

The press release states that, unlike previous future-crime detection tools, the algorithm does not depict crime as coming from hotspots that spread to surrounding areas. This method can ignore the complex social environment of cities and the relationship between crime and the effects of police enforcement.

"Spatial models ignore the natural topology of the city," said sociologist and co-author James Evans, PhD, Max Palevsky Professor at UChicago and the Santa Fe Institute. "Transportation networks respect streets, walkways, train and bus lines. Communication networks respect areas of similar socio-economic background. Our model enables discovery of these connections."

Lead author Ishanu Chattopadhyay warned that the tool should not be used to direct police forces, despite its accuracy. Departments should not use it to swarm neighborhoods proactively to prevent crime, for example.

"We created a digital twin of urban environments. If you feed it data from what happened in the past, it will tell you what's going to happen in the future," Chattopadhyay said. "It's not magical; there are limitations, but we validated it and it works really well."

Earlier this week, we heard that Chinese regulators were looking to use a variety of data points collected on Chinese citizens to build profiles from which an automated system could predict potential dissidents or criminals before they have a chance to do something the government deems illegal, which somehow makes a Minority Report-style system sound even more worrying.

Permalink to story.

 

nodfor

Posts: 268   +471
Minority report was about predicting who the criminal would be, not just about crime stats.
So another click-bait headline.

Predicting crime in Chicago isn't something difficult anyway. Chicago is the poster child of the new woke world. So there is only one way these numbers can go...

 

yRaz

Posts: 4,517   +5,372
Minority report was about predicting who the criminal would be, not just about crime stats.
So another click-bait headline.

Predicting crime in Chicago isn't something difficult anyway. Chicago is the poster child of the new woke world. So there is only one way these numbers can go...
Title is clickbait, but it would be useful for things like real-estate investing or people looking to open a business.
 

Hooda Thunkett

Posts: 14   +17
Title is clickbait, but it would be useful for things like real-estate investing or people looking to open a business.
I would say that regular crime statistics are better for those purposes. This model appears to be for statisticians to play around with.
 

Dimitriid

Posts: 2,216   +4,268
You know, a week is still enough time to actually have very targeted social programs that say, cut people a check, give people a moratorium on their debt like rent or even just proper housing to begin with, give them some food stamps, check them into a rehab program, even some temporary employment programs at least, etc.

It's telling that the first assumption of everybody (Myself included actually) is to think "Oh this is pretty awful, dystopia is here" etc. Without considering data prediction models don't dictate that the solution should be either preemptive arrest or increased state violence (A.k.a. Police operations and increased presence) plus even though most of us will focus on what we expect to see due to decades of Copaganda shows is 'Muderer of random people' or 'Armed robbery' or 'gang violence' the same statistics that were probably fed into this models would come from are trained and henceforth predict much more insidious things nobody cares about solving like domestic violence which is overwhelmingly more frequent than the typical 'Violent crime'

And that absolutely can be addressed by proper outreach that takes care of people in those situation that just couldn't get away because of poverty and it's consequences like housing issues, addiction issues, etc.

But our reaction is not to care for the actual reasons that are demonstrably behind crime but instead is to reinforce the police state and fast track the transferring of minorities into the prison system as a 'solution'
 

waclark

Posts: 433   +302
You know, a week is still enough time to actually have very targeted social programs that say, cut people a check, give people a moratorium on their debt like rent or even just proper housing to begin with, give them some food stamps, check them into a rehab program, even some temporary employment programs at least, etc.

SNIP
And that absolutely can be addressed by proper outreach that takes care of people in those situation that just couldn't get away because of poverty and it's consequences like housing issues, addiction issues, etc.

SNIP

I hate to tell you this, but we've had these programs for many decades now. Chicago is a shining example of this. Look up Cabrini-Green. It's the poster child of government housing gone wrong.

Santa Claus will never solve our societal problems. We will all just be sitting at home waiting for Santa to bring the next round of presents instead of getting off our butts and changing our lives.
 

passwordistaco

Posts: 263   +627
I predict that there will be 15+ shooting incidents and 5+ deaths this weekend in certain areas of Chicago that have a high crime rate. Likely ++, because it's a holiday weekend.

Where's my grant money?

The cheaper shortcut would be to ask any experienced beat cop in any given city where crime happens.
 

passwordistaco

Posts: 263   +627
You know, a week is still enough time to actually have very targeted social programs that say, cut people a check, give people a moratorium on their debt like rent or even just proper housing to begin with, give them some food stamps, check them into a rehab program, even some temporary employment programs at least, etc.

It's telling that the first assumption of everybody (Myself included actually) is to think "Oh this is pretty awful, dystopia is here" etc. Without considering data prediction models don't dictate that the solution should be either preemptive arrest or increased state violence (A.k.a. Police operations and increased presence) plus even though most of us will focus on what we expect to see due to decades of Copaganda shows is 'Muderer of random people' or 'Armed robbery' or 'gang violence' the same statistics that were probably fed into this models would come from are trained and henceforth predict much more insidious things nobody cares about solving like domestic violence which is overwhelmingly more frequent than the typical 'Violent crime'

And that absolutely can be addressed by proper outreach that takes care of people in those situation that just couldn't get away because of poverty and it's consequences like housing issues, addiction issues, etc.

But our reaction is not to care for the actual reasons that are demonstrably behind crime but instead is to reinforce the police state and fast track the transferring of minorities into the prison system as a 'solution'
You may be backwards on the causality relationship between crime and public assistance.
 

captaincranky

Posts: 18,797   +7,724
If it ain't gonna tell you who, where, and what crime is going to be committed, (which is not possible out side of Hollywood), it ain't worth a sh!t.

More likely a bunch of slackers hanging out, passing around blunts, and Watching reruns of "The District"


Hell here in Philly we're bagging almost two murders a day. So, if I say,"by tomorrow night, one murder will occur in North Philly", I probably have a 50/50 chance of being right..
 
This algorithm is just another bandaid against crime.
To stop scumbags from committing crimes is actually quite simple.
We as a free and civilized nation, NEED TO PUT FEAR BACK INTO THE ACT OF COMMITTING A CRIME!
there need to be accountability, liability and punishment to criminals. Bring back the 3 strikes law. We need to fund the police and build more prisons.

Just about every house on my street has been broken into over the last two years. Our glorious city Mayor put a homeless encampment a few blocks away.
For many years I've had a sign near my front door and back gate that states ( I don't have a dog. I do own guns!). So far that FEAR of possibilities has kept my home safe so far.

Oops, looks like I started to drift into a bit of a rant.

Anyway, I think a practical application for this algorithm if incorporated into mapping software for civil police authority surveillance drones.
 

Hollow

Posts: 53   +53
What about predicting what needs to be done so that people wouldn't feel the need to commit crimes.
 

Watzupken

Posts: 635   +519
To me, all these predictive solutions are a waste of time and money. The solution is only as good as the assumptions and logic programmed into the algorithm. The capability of the algo is like an artist with some gibberish of a drawing, but “beautifully described” to make it sound amazing.
 

captaincranky

Posts: 18,797   +7,724
This algorithm is just another bandaid against crime.
It's not a "Band aid" it's simply an (alleged) "software solution", to something that is routinely done by police forces across the country, and around the world
To stop scumbags from committing crimes is actually quite simple.
We as a free and civilized nation, NEED TO PUT FEAR BACK INTO THE ACT OF COMMITTING A CRIME!
FWIW, you don't understand the psychopathology of the individuals committing the most heinous and violent crimes. They're all psychopaths, and having no fear, remorse, or regret, for killing, is the primary diagnostic method by which to arrive at that conclusion.
Besides, if you put them in jail, it's like a homecoming of sorts, since many of their friends or relatives are already there. Not to mention the fact that prisons tend to be "schools for crime", through anecdotal recounts of crimes committed by other inmates. So, you couldn't crack safes, bit you could steal cars. Perhaps another prisoner would be willing to help you along, for a few packs of cigarettes
We need to fund the police and build more prisons.
But then, you'll be bellyaching you brains out, when you taxes are jacked to to support these programs. It does cost $50,000 plus a year for the care, feeding, and housing, of one person incarcerated. New prisons aren't exactly cheap to build either. America has (supposedly), the world's highest percentage of its population behind bars already. People from around the world don't understand this since we're (allegedly) a free and Democratic society. It's works out like the old adage, "if you give someone enough rope, they'll hang themselves". Maybe we're "too free", eh?
Just about every house on my street has been broken into over the last two years. Our glorious city Mayor put a homeless encampment a few blocks away.
For many years I've had a sign near my front door and back gate that states ( I don't have a dog. I do own guns!). So far that FEAR of possibilities has kept my home safe so far.
Which calls into question who'll shoot the burglars when you're not home? If you're planning on stashing a pistol or two under your pillow or under the couch cushions, be aware those are the first places they'll look. It may take more time to plot your comings and goings, but since you've announced you have what they want, time is on their side. Even with an alarm system, you have to rely on police response time to keep your property safe.
Oops, looks like I started to drift into a bit of a rant.
Your're right, that was nothing more that a "rant", and a nonproductive at that. Longer sentences, more prisons, even the "three strike law", are nothing but more, "band aids".

The problem with America at present, is the breakdown of the family unit, the lack of proper socialization, and the lack of instilled values from it, which plagues our society. Americans are unwilling to accept, or admit any responsibility for their own actions or shortcomings as either parents, or human beings. Whenever anything goes sour, they deny any blame for it, and then go, hat in hand, to the government for a "grant to fight crime".

As for as "surveillance drones" go, if people are whimpering about being tracked by Google and street cameras, you can sum up their response to them in two words, "big brother", and look forward to an ensuing class action lawsuit from the ACLU.

As opposed to the several more pages I could "rant" about this topic, I'll (mercifully) close for now.
 
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PEnnn

Posts: 803   +939
I can predict that there will be a mass shooting every 1-2 days in the US.

And, another cryptoscammer stealing crypto and vanishing on a weekly basis.

Now, those you can take to the bank and no need for any algorithm, computers or clickbaits!!
 

wizardB

Posts: 243   +115
I can predict a crime in Chicago well ahead of time, this coming weekend 63 people will be shot and 7 will die. So this can pretty much be repeated for Chicago for the next decade because that Democratic hell hole will never join the civilized world but New York is coming to join them at the bottom.
 

Endymio

Posts: 1,636   +1,638
A week is still enough time to actually have very targeted social programs that say, cut people a check, give people a moratorium on their debt...But our reaction is not to care for the actual reasons that are demonstrably behind crime
Smash-and-grab robberies for high-end sneakers, road rage attacks, rapes and other sexual assaults, violent assaults on random passerby's, ambush-style attacks on police officers, and gangs executing their rivals in turf-war shoot-outs are not going to be reduced by your pie-in-sky theories.

The myth that "poverty" is driving crime is utterly absurd. Mothers aren't stealing formula to feed their starving babies. Give people free food and housing, and they want a free car, smartphone, and big-screen TV. Give them that, and they want designer clothes and a new luxury SUV. And all property crimes aside, you still have the huge increase in violent crimes of passion to contend with.
 

wizardB

Posts: 243   +115
I can predict that there will be a mass shooting every 1-2 days in the US.

And, another cryptoscammer stealing crypto and vanishing on a weekly basis.

Now, those you can take to the bank and no need for any algorithm, computers or clickbaits!!
Actually every weekend in Chicago.