Back with a vengeance: SSD prices to surge in 2024

[Shawn Knight]

The big picture: NAND flash prices are expected to increase by as much as 50 percent in the short term, which will eventually result in more expensive solid-state drives. If you're on the fence about a new SSD, now is the time to jump for the best price.

According to market research firm TrendForce, NAND flash prices will need to increase by more than 40 percent before manufacturers can even reach a break-even point. To become profitable, prices will need to go up at least 50 percent or more.

Manufacturers have been addressing the issue for months now. Back in September, Samsung started dialing back DRAM and NAND chip production by half to help stabilize prices and clear out buyer inventory. The move also allowed the South Korean tech giant to focus more on products with stacked layers up to 128 layers.

With fewer chips rolling off assembly lines, companies can start to work on pricing them higher. It's all about supply and demand.

Also read: How to Choose an SSD on a Flash Sale

In the most recent full quarter, Samsung captured 31.4 percent of the global NAND flash market followed by SK Group with a 20.2 percent slice of the pie. Western Digital wasn't far behind at 16.9 percent, with Kioxia trailing at 14.5 percent, and Micron at 12.5 percent.

Revenue collectively grew 2.9 percent in the third quarter, and is expected to soar over 20 percent in Q4, TrendForce said.

Don't be surprised to see the price of NAND flash start ramping up sooner rather than later, and trickle down solid-state drives. For example, it's still possible to pick up a quality 1 TB M.2 2280 SSD for around $80 but that's about $25 more than it was just a few weeks ago.

That said, if you are in need for some speedy solid-state storage, time is money. It's highly unlikely that we will see prices this low again anytime soon. I recently scooped up a 2 TB Kingston drive for my new build and am eyeballing a second 2 TB M.2 for storage purposes.

Image credit: Phiraphon Srithakae

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https://www.techspot.com/news/101362-back-vengeance-ssd-prices-surge-2024.html

 

[madboyv1]

I had an inkling that this was going to be the case coming into the holiday season but neglected to actually try and pick up any storage as I do not currently need it... but I should have assuming that I will need it later this year... A misstep on my part.

 

[toooooot]

I had an inkling that this was going to be the case coming into the holiday season but neglected to actually try and pick up any storage as I do not currently need it... but I should have assuming that I will need it later this year... A misstep on my part.

They are saying it for a while. I read about it in first quarter of this year.
And it is not guaranteed. NAND makers slow production, I mean they started some time ago in attempt to rise prices.
But here we are at the end of the year and still have affordable SSDs.
Maybe they just don't want to cut production drastically to the point where it will take long to get production back this much.

 

[godrilla]

FYI the WD_BLACK 4TB SN850X NVMe is still selling for $299 which is about $10 more than last week. The 4 terabyte 990 pro did go back up to $359 which is about $80 more than its lowest point on Black Friday. You can still get a good Western digital pcie 4.0 nvme ssd at a decent price today.

The 2 terabyte 990 pro is selling for $169.99 which is $70 more than it's lowest point.
The 2 terabyte western digital SN850x Black is selling for $119 currently.
FYI

 

[yRaz]

They are saying it for a while. I read about it in first quarter of this year.
And it is not guaranteed. NAND makers slow production, I mean they started some time ago in attempt to rise prices.
But here we are at the end of the year and still have affordable SSDs.
Maybe they just don't want to cut production drastically to the point where it will take long to get production back this much.

Demand is slowing faster than production. There comes a point where if they cut production too much it starts to get too expensive to make and they eat into their own profit margins. Also, I have like 20TB of solid state storage in my house. How many people are out there who have already stocked up on solid state storage and won't be buying it for YEARS. I also have a 60TB NAS with HDDS, but that's different.

 

[kiwigraeme]

They say this stuff all the time - people put off discretionary extra stuff
Spinning rust sales must have dipped massively after excuses of Thailand floods
I look at data hoarders once every year or 2 - those guys hold off big time - till cheap pricing

Plus lets get real - your phones , cameras, recorders - most of the stuff people need is pumped out of "old" production lines - SSD cards are so cheap - I upload to hard drive - then throw them in a draw us backup - except for cutting edge ones
Really if building a PC - only need latest and greatest if that PC is cutting edge

There will always be sales and discounts - if I build a late zen 5 or early zen 6 PC - then I'll have 3 months period to hunt for a 8TB drive or at least 4Tb

For many a faster memory will only make minimum impact - especially given AMDs upcoming CPU/GPU/Memory tricks for games

For big data crunches - you want near the best

 

[BabaYaga]

Factory can only lower production so much before they start loosing money on each unit sold. There is a break even point for factories. Fixed cost of running the factory and variable cost of producing each unit. Sometimes, it's better to sell units at a loss than to shut down production completely.

https://www.deskera.com/blog/conten...4e75-9f94-ed92e0a86dc0_Break-Even-Point-1.png

That's why automakers like Tesla need to ramp up production when opening up a new factory and it makes more financial sense to lower prices of products while keeping the volume up before cutting production in order to try to get prices higher. There is an approximately 2-3 million cars produced break even point for a car factory.

Samsung might be cutting because they have too much inventory and that costs money to store. There are no shortages to just be artificially raising prices. Their raw materials and labor costs might be going up and they're passing it along to keep their margins the same. Unless there is collusion, Samsung doesn't know whether the other manufactuers will also cut or make up the difference and gain more marketshare. They still have to price their products competitively.

It's not clear if base prices went up or there is less sales. I got my Samsung 990PRO 2TB w/heatsink for $140. Price was higher prior and now it's $180. It's still showing it's a sale price, just a lower discount.

 

[Atmajaya2020]

Had I known beforehand the price would go up, I would have bought the SSD I was after..

 

[godrilla]

Had I known beforehand the price would go up, I would have bought the SSD I was after..

Which one did you want to purchase if you don't mind me asking?

 

[LetTheWookieWin]

This was why I took the plunge and upgraded my rig this holiday season. There were great deals on RAM and SSDs (CPUs too depending on what you were looking for). I ended up buying two 2 TB 990 pros for $130 each on Black Friday. That was only about $30 more than I paid for a single 1 TB 970 EVO at the end of 2018.

I still think it’s worth grabbing an SSD now rather than waiting for the reasons this article mentions. You may not hit the pricing floor, but if you’re going to need storage in the next two years, you’ll undoubtedly hit higher prices by waiting.

 

[kiwigraeme]

This was why I took the plunge and upgraded my rig this holiday season. There were great deals on RAM and SSDs (CPUs too depending on what you were looking for). I ended up buying two 2 TB 990 pros for $130 each on Black Friday. That was only about $30 more than I paid for a single 1 TB 970 EVO at the end of 2018.

I still think it’s worth grabbing an SSD now rather than waiting for the reasons this article mentions. You may not hit the pricing floor, but if you’re going to need storage in the next two years, you’ll undoubtedly hit higher prices by waiting.

Pretty good price - only shame about M2 drives - are limited to say 1 to 3 slots or some encasing solution - ie if you upgrade later - harder to repurpose than a std internal ssd drive

 

[captaincranky]

I wonder how long it will take before Republicans to try and blame this "inflation" on Joe Biden.

Off topic? Sorry, my bad.

 

[OortCloud]

Given the number of nand manufacturers if they all put their prices up and limit production is that just price-fixing?

 

[godrilla]

Given the number of nand manufacturers if they all put their prices up and limit production is that just price-fixing?

The best thing we can do to mitigate the impact of this market manipulation that they clearly forecasted vocally for the past month since November; is to shine light on cheaper products for potential buyers like currently the western digital ssds are still not impacted buy these price hikes. If buyers are buy the cheaper competitive products the more expensive ones will stay on the shelf and collect dust. In the process hopefully putting pressure on the the inflated products with a market correction via plautau affect that will be in equilibrium.

 

[RudyBob]

I actually bought two just a few weeks back. Sometimes I get lucky

 

[godrilla]

I actually bought two just a few weeks back. Sometimes I get lucky

Luck is very randomized, buying around black Friday is more of a smart pattern decision making especially when tech media is telling everyone the prices of flash is going up.

 

[emmzo]

We've been hearing this "news" for a while. Let's be honest, what's not going to be pricier next year with this runaway inflation? I get it, SSDs sales are slow, let's have a "crisis" and advertise it. Sorry, guys, it's not 2021, people have less money to burn and care less.

 

[RudyBob]

Luck is very randomized, buying around black Friday is more of a smart pattern decision making especially when tech media is telling everyone the prices of flash is going up.

First off and most importantly there is no such thing as luck anymore than any accident is freak. I used that word because it's one I thought would illicit no argument

 

[toooooot]

Luck is very randomized, buying around black Friday is more of a smart pattern decision making especially when tech media is telling everyone the prices of flash is going up.

flash is up. I checked things I purchased this year and last. The same SSDs cost more, not significantly more but more none the less.

 

[godrilla]

flash is up. I checked things I purchased this year and last. The same SSDs cost more, not significantly more but more none the less.

Yep it's up now but around Black Friday it was as much as much as 65% cheaper than previous year. For eg. in 2022 I bought 2 terabyte 990 pro on launch for $289 this past black Friday it was as low as $100. Even at $169 the 990 pro 2 terabyte is cheaper than last year's pricing so there is that. can you give an example of specific price comparison of flash you are speaking about?

 

[Atmajaya2020]

Which one did you want to purchase if you don't mind me asking?

samsung evo 970.. 2tb one..
the price is to steep for me to buy right now.. even when ssd price are falling..

 

[godrilla]

samsung evo 970.. 2tb one..
the price is to steep for me to buy right now.. even when ssd price are falling..

Is it the plus or the regular one? Yeah It seems Samsung drastically raised prices across the board since last month. The 2 terabyte 970 evo plus went up to $169 ( same price as the 990 pro wtf). I purchased the 2 terabyte 970 evo plus 3 black Fridays ago (11/2020) for $200.
other alternatives is the crucial P3 Plus 2 terabyte selling for $99 currently
Also the
Corsair MP600 PRO XT 2TB M.2 NVMe PCIe Gen. 4 x4 SSD
for $129
and the western digital WD_BLACK 2TB SN850X NVMe for $119.
Pop quiz for the experts why did the price go down by as much 65% ( in one year) hmm?

 

[StupidPeopleSuk]

Pop quiz for the experts why did the price go down by as much 65% ( in one year) hmm?

Pretty simple: Capitalism 101, Rule #1: Supply & demand.
When the Rona buying surge was nearly over, most mfgr's failed to react fast enough to the declining demand, and ended up with a LOT of extra parts sitting around collecting dust but hardly anyone to sell them too...so they had to take the hit & lower their prices to get their inventory levels back to pre-Rona levels....which unfortunately for them, took almost a full year to accomplish due to their overly-greedy behaviors in 2020 - 2022. IMHO, IT WAS THEIR OWN FAULT for not paying enough attention to the market conditions

When I saw the prices dropping like a rock back in September, I looked at my needs for the next 6 months or so, and planned my purchases accordingly (mostly for client builds).

About a week before BF, I noticed that WD's website was selling their 2TB/850x drives at or slightly less than most other e-tailers ($139), and they would allow me to stack my Honey & CC bonus points too, so I started stocking up & ordered 6 of them...which ended up only costing me $112 each...

Then da 'Zon lowered their prices to match WD's, so I got another 6 there too.

Then I started noticing that the 4TB models were dropping also, so I waited a few days & grabbed several of them too for ~$211 each... my clients were REALLY happy that I saved them quite a bit of $$ compared to what I had originally quoted them for the amount of storage & # of drives they wanted...and made myself some extra bank for the holidays too !

I was kinda hoping some 8TB models would go down to, but apparently that was wishful thinking on my part

 

[Atmajaya2020]

I was kinda hoping some 8TB models would go down to, but apparently that was wishful thinking on my part

I don't think you're the only person hoping storage prices will stay low. (almost) all DIY PC builders hope the price will remain low..

other alternatives is the crucial P3 Plus 2 terabyte selling for $99 currently
Also the Corsair MP600 PRO XT 2TB M.2 NVMe PCIe Gen. 4 x4 SSD for $129
and the western digital WD_BLACK 2TB SN850X NVMe for $119.

I wished that I could get 970 evo plus with decent low price..
but, thanx for the advices, crucial has right price for me..

 

[godrilla]

I don't think you're the only person hoping storage prices will stay low. (almost) all DIY PC builders hope the price will remain low..

I wished that I could get 970 evo plus with decent low price..
but, thanx for the advices, crucial has right price for me..

Happy New Year, it seems that the 970 evo plus was a gem with its endurance, performance and mla flash. Please do your research according to Tom's hardware the p3 plus has qla and inferior endurance fyi.

Crucial P3 Plus SSD Review: Capacity on the Cheap

The P3 Plus is a good first effort at a faster budget SSD with Crucial’s new QLC.

www.tomshardware.com

Unfortunately prices seem to all be going up even after my initial post on top its already significantly higher for even the western digital WD_BLACK 850x 2 terabyte. .