Hurricane Wilma

[Spike]

If you are sitting in front of a computer in South Florida reading this, why?

Don't assume the estimates of storm surge will be too high, Wilma is the size of Hurricane Gilbert, just as strong at the moment, and is projected to hit south Florida at speed and still come out of the other side as a strong hurricane. There is likely to be a substantial storm surge on BOTH SIDES of florida, though nobody is yet absolutely sure of where landfall will be, and won't be untill it turns the corner around Cuba.

One thing is sure, ant it's that if you leave it to the last minute to evacuate or prepare, it will be too late. It's a massive and severe storm that's going to move very quickly towards, and will affect a massive area of Florida (ts winds out to 160 miles at the moment, expected to widen), it's broken a whole host of records, caught the NHC off-guard for a while, and may yet have a few suprises up its sleeve yet! This could quite easily be devastating.

better safe than sorry. Keep watching it... www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[SNGX1275]

One thing thats worth noting (as of about 1am central last night) is that the gulf water temperatures were the highest right where the hurricane hit cat4 (when it was still increasing to 5). North and south of there the water temperatures drop much more than they did when Katrina came though.

Might not make much of a difference if it hits southern Florida but it will if it goes up and hits the panhandle. If it goes that far north I would expect it to be down to a cat3 and maybe a 2 before landfall. Unfortunately most of the models show it hitting south Florida.

 

[zephead]

in case that his holyness reads this:

what part of "god bless america" don't you understand? it doesn't say "flatten" or "drown"

 

[Spike]

Well, there's no real change in this as yet. It's midway through Eyewall Replacement, and pressure has risen to 984mb (not a lot!) Wind speed has decreased some though, but it's still cat5. We'll have a better idea of how stron it's going to be in the next 12-24 hours when the EWR is complete and we can see if it re-intensifies significantly or not.

There is a small chance of a yutacan landfall which could weaken it, but the NHC don't seem to favour this idea.

A slightly more concerning possibility which the NHC also mention is the possibility of Wilma phasing with a deep trough after T+96... that would be BAD! It's already forecast to travel 2 thirds of the way up the Eastern Seaboard. The last thing anybody needs to see is Wilma going extra-tropical and becoming a severe storm up there. If it did follow that possibility, it would race up the coast between 50 and 300 nautical miles from the shore.

 

[Spike]

As expected, the storm has weakened a little as it goes through its EWR cycle, and has spread out significantly...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES.

 

[SNGX1275]

I last saw info on it about 6 hours ago (haven't checked or heard since), but it looked like the eye was just goign to scrape east of the Yucitan pennensula, if that happens IMO I think its going to weaken significantly probably down to a cat 3, it will be nothing more than a cat4 by the time it hits the keys.

Not that a cat4 isn't serious, it is. I'm just saying its not going to be the cat5 supergiant as was originally thought.

 

[Spike]

absolutely! and that would be a real releif! However, it could even become a cat 3 (which would still be quite serious!)

Whatever happens though, the coast and the keys will get a battering with the storm surge.

One possibility that the models keep yoying with is phasing with a low as it travels up the eastern seaboard - a superstorm event that will drag what will become ex-hurricane wilma all the way up to Canada, where it will have winds of up to cat 3 speeds. Frightening!

 

[Spike]

Looks like the Yutacan Peninsula has taken a bullet for Florida. I really feel for anyone there right now! Wilma has done some pretty unpredictable things and is keeping everyone on their toes. There's no telling on when where and how strong she'll amke a Florida landfall right now.

 

[Spike]

Category 3 landfall at Naples, South Florida expected in next few hours. Key West already experienceing 70MpH winds. Greater than usual risk of tornadoes with a number of super-cells in the feeder banding. Floodwatch and tornado warning for the whole of South Florida, with flood warnings in a number of places. Storm surge could be anyehere up to 17 feet. Hurricane unlikely to weaken over land significantly due to a stable and healthy 60 nautical mile wide eye. Storm is heading for Florida from just a couple of hundred miles out at 20MpH

Only 10% of the residents of the Florida Keys evacuated. 90% remain, some in mobile homes.

Good luck guys.

 

[SNGX1275]

On my way to work this morning ABC news (on the radio) had someone that was currently in the eye of the storm, and he said the storm surge was minimal, he didn't give a real number, but that lead me to believe it was no where near 17 feet. (yes I did hear 17 feet predicted by someone last night).

 

[Spike]

lol so did I It was the prediction consistantly given by NHC.

I'm glad it wasn't as high as expected though. I'm very glad.

 

[zephead]

wilma apparently ran a semicircle thru the gulf, but by the time it hit florida the winds had gone down from thier record speeds.

 

[Spike]

Indeed. I hadn't been updating this thread with events as they happened (was too busy tracking it on another forum).

Wilma weakened significantly over the Yutacan Peninsula, but while her eye had degraded, her inner core remained remarkably intact. Once it had finished it's Eyewall replacement, it intensified once more and eventually made landfall just below Naples, FL, as a major category 3 hurricane. It passed over Florida comparatively quickly, and last time I checked about 5 hours ago, it was still a catagory 3 hurricane, weakened slightly over Florida to strong Cat 2 status, and then re-intensified to cat 3 on the other side, travelling NE next to the US East coast at a remarkable forward speed of 40 MpH!