Long Term Prediction: 5G will be a failure

jobeard

TS Ambassador
How dare I say that??

Consider the PROs:
  • High download speeds and low latency, touted to benefit gamers.
  • New Use Cases for iOT devices
  • Better conjestion control for high connection rates to single end-point.

Now Consider the CONs:
  • Regardless of the cell provider you choose, the range from you to the cell tower is greatly reduced -- frequently to 100-200 meters (aka one city block).
  • At 5Ghz, the RF signal is susceptible to all kinds of interferrence, even rain. Current test have shown that just turning your back to the town can induce a fallback.
  • New investment(s) in devices which support the technology.

Analysis:
Doubtful that gamers will be playing on mobile devices as they want HD screens. So unless you live in an urban, hi-density area with a cell tower on the corner, you will not see the fulfillment of highspeed downloads at home.

Conjestion control woud be a great feature at large events, such as the U.S. Open, Wimbledon, Indianapolis 500, Kentucky Derby, Rose Bowl, ... you get the point ... but these are all one-time events and without a ticket, so what?​

So on balance, which impacts the market more strongly? In IMO, the CONs and thus the consumer will be disgruntled by over-hyped expectations, overly priced devices and too little delivery.

So -- feel free to contribute to the debate ...
 

MattS

TS Evangelist
TechSpot Elite
The technology has its drawbacks.. People get too impressed by buzzwords and all.

60GHz also made some big headlines and we all know how that took off lol.
 

ibrasoul

TS Rookie
I think 5G will be a breakthrough in data transmission as it will fulfill the demand of high service availability and reliability among users .We are now in information age where data is like diamond. So with 5G technology available , much improvement is expected in various sectors I.e education, health, e.t.c.
 

n4bme

TS Rookie
How dare I say that??

Consider the PROs:
  • High download speeds and low latency, touted to benefit gamers.
  • New Use Cases for iOT devices
  • Better conjestion control for high connection rates to single end-point.

Now Consider the CONs:
  • Regardless of the cell provider you choose, the range from you to the cell tower is greatly reduced -- frequently to 100-200 meters (aka one city block).
  • At 5Ghz, the RF signal is susceptible to all kinds of interferrence, even rain. Current test have shown that just turning your back to the town can induce a fallback.
  • New investment(s) in devices which support the technology.

Analysis:
Doubtful that gamers will be playing on mobile devices as they want HD screens. So unless you live in an urban, hi-density area with a cell tower on the corner, you will not see the fulfillment of highspeed downloads at home.​
Conjestion control woud be a great feature at large events, such as the U.S. Open, Wimbledon, Indianapolis 500, Kentucky Derby, Rose Bowl, ... you get the point ... but these are all one-time events and without a ticket, so what?​

So on balance, which impacts the market more strongly? In IMO, the CONs and thus the consumer will be disgruntled by over-hyped expectations, overly priced devices and too little delivery.

So -- feel free to contribute to the debate ...
I have to agree and and support this position. The marketing hype is way too strong for this "product" at this point in it's lifecycle with it's lack of installed base. The industry who installs the 5G equipment is still wating on the manufacturers to give install requirements and the actual plans for the systems. In addition to the install requirements will be the same scenario with cell towers where people do not want those antennas and equipment on a pole within sight of their house. I have seen this on the "one" 5G deployment I have seen and it looked like a prototype install with the assorted hardware boxes attached to a pole. One would expect at this point in this technology that a finished solution and public acceptance would be completed. What are we with this newest fad - 3 years? 1x to 3g was a couple of years, 3g to 4g was a couple of years, 4g to 5g will be a longer wait or even abandoned as a newer technology arrives on the scene. These are my thoughts which basically mirror yours...
 

jobeard

TS Ambassador
the Sub-6GHz + mmWave iPhone is progressing as scheduled, and it is expected to ship at the end of 3Q20 or early 4Q20.​
Of course, Apple supporting the faster 5G standard is only half the story: it also needs to be available from carriers. Although the early rollout of mmWave 5G is underway, the extremely limited range – closer to WiFi than LTE – means that it is mostly only available at specific high-density locations like rail stations, sports stadiums, and major tourist attractions.​
so says ww.9to5mac.com
 

jobeard

TS Ambassador
Hmm; other voices seem to agree:
Take 5G — arguably the biggest "improvement" expected to be gracing our gadgets in the months ahead. Here in the U.S., 5G network availability is still extraordinarily limited. And even in the small handful of cities where it is technically in place, the very nature of 5G technologyshort-range and highly susceptible to interference — means it's gonna work only in small, scattered areas (at least when we're talking about actual 5G as opposed to just upgraded 4G, which is what some U.S. carriers are marketing under that same moniker. Yay, progress!).
see the details at
 

jobeard

TS Ambassador
There are big questions for Samsung, too, like how carrier support will work. Will S20s be sold unlocked, allowing customers to bounce freely between 5G networks like they can with LTE? Will there be compatibility issues due to the different technologies of 5G used by different companies?
  • (Verizon, for example, only offers mmWave 5G to customers right now,
  • while AT&T limits its users to its low-band 850MHz spectrum for now.)

Hope the difference doesn't escape you
Verizon will only connect to Verizon
AT&T will only connect to AT&T
SO ... Where will the merged T-Mobile/Sprint line up???
 
Last edited:

OGxGatman

TS Rookie
How dare I say that??

Consider the PROs:
  • High download speeds and low latency, touted to benefit gamers.
  • New Use Cases for iOT devices
  • Better conjestion control for high connection rates to single end-point.

Now Consider the CONs:
  • Regardless of the cell provider you choose, the range from you to the cell tower is greatly reduced -- frequently to 100-200 meters (aka one city block).
  • At 5Ghz, the RF signal is susceptible to all kinds of interferrence, even rain. Current test have shown that just turning your back to the town can induce a fallback.
  • New investment(s) in devices which support the technology.


So -- feel free to contribute to the debate ...
There are literally so many things going through my mind right now with how to reply to this, however, it would turn into much to big of a post.

So I'm going to keep this as simple as possible.

5G is a upgrade that is going to change the world of communication, data transfer speed, and much more.

All this hype currently that everyone is getting into and putting down are not reading into the right things. The providers offering 5G to specific areas with that "Upgrade Hardware" the thing that adds like a box to a tower to improve the speeds to 5G doesn't truly offer or allow 5G.

5G can ONLY be achieved, and let me make this very clear, can ONLY be achieved after ALL upgrades to all the towers that are currently in use have been made. When that has been accomplished they can make the switch but up till that point true 5G does not exist.

We are several years from this happening. A minimum of 10 (that's just my personal guess) However over this time, the companies will market the 5G because theoretically it is possible with very specific circumstances and technicalities (Actually this reason is why I originally researched the subject because I wanted to know more about how it was legal for them to advertise "capable 5G" network)

Once all upgrades have been completed across the board, then they will switch the towers over to official 5G.

ONLY THEN - will we be capable of using it.

Going in originally with the cables and wires that run across the oceans and around the entire globe we knew of the limitations we would one day reach. We knew what that meant as far as moving to the next step which is the phase we currently are in.

Just keep in mind, that until all the towers have officially been switched over everything is a "Pre-5G" It might be faster, better, or whatever else but it's not going to be true 5G until ALL Towers have been upgraded to be made capable.

When they do finally get it done, 5G will provide us with several more upgrades in speed that will come with time. 50-80 years of continued use would be completely within the realm of possibilities because of how things are being developed current day "future-proof" is going to be a #1 priority so we can use it for a long time.

Even this post is overly long, sorry about that. For those who are interested you should really read up on how our current communication systems work, why they have the limitations they do, and why 5G won't be ready for a while.
 
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jobeard

TS Ambassador
5G can ONLY be achieved, and let me make this very clear, can ONLY be achieved after ALL upgrades to all the towers that are currently in use have been made.
There are 13 sites with active 5G right now. However, if there are sufficient handsets with both low-band & mmWave frequencies (right now Verizon only has the low-band and AT&T only has mmWave), then a better distribution of towers would certainly be benefical