Memory prices have surged to 2007 levels after decades of steady decline

[DragonSlayer101]

The takeaway: Memory prices have been trending upward for more than a year, with many analysts predicting further increases in the near future. A prominent GitHub developer has now published a series of graphs and charts showing just how quickly prices have surged to 2007 levels on a per-unit basis, effectively undoing two decades of progress in making PC hardware more affordable for consumers.

According to computer science researcher and software performance expert Daniel Lemire, skyrocketing memory prices are a "historical anomaly," with the unprecedented increases effectively erasing decades of steady, exponential cost reductions.

He believes that for prices to normalize, either software developers will have to find ways to build AI systems that require less memory, or the hardware industry will need to increase production capacity.

Driven largely by rising demand from the AI sector, global memory prices have surged dramatically over the last two years, with a recent J.P. Morgan report estimating an increase of more than 400% since the start of 2024. Unfortunately for consumers, the surge isn't limited to DRAM chips, as an acute manufacturing shortage in flash memory has also pushed up prices for SSDs, flash drives, memory cards, and external storage.

– Daniel Lemire (@lemire) August 5, 2026

According to industry reports, contract and retail prices for NAND flash have risen between 50% and 100% since the start of the crisis, triggering price increases across a broad spectrum of consumer electronics, including laptops, desktops, graphics cards, smartphones, and video game consoles. While brands such as HP, Dell, and Apple have raised prices for their laptops and MacBooks, Sony and Nintendo have also raised prices for the PS5 and Switch 2, respectively.

Ominously for consumers, South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix has predicted that the global memory crisis is far from over. According to CEO Kwak Noh-Jung, 2027 will be the worst year ever for the industry, with demand continuing to outstrip supply even beyond 2030.

However, whether these predictions materialize will depend in part on the health of the AI industry, amid growing fears that speculative investment in the sector is creating a bubble that could burst at any time.

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Memory prices have surged to 2007 levels after decades of steady decline

 

[yRaz]

Well this is what happens when you go from capitalism to collusion. The big 3 just locked in minimum pricing going into 2030 with manufacturers and that's not something you would do if you were confident the line keeps going up. The cracks are rapidly starting to show

 

[Squid Surprise]

"He believes that for prices to normalize, either software developers will have to find ways to build AI systems that require less memory, or the hardware industry will need to increase production capacity."

Does anyone really think either of those WON'T happen?!!? Centuries of progress tells us that tech improves - and production does as well...

 

[Anton Longshot]

I have no idea where it's all going and whether we'll get lucky or not.
If we don't get lucky it's not unthinkable people will at some point be forced to use (&^%(&%&^ dumb terminals because they cannot afford to buy a PC or laptop.
Or maybe people will find ways to do necessary stuff without computers or the 'Net.
Double ouch.
Coïncidence made me 'hardware-rich' and what I have is going to last a really long time, but I know people that own computers that could expire tomorrow or so.
Sad because I can only give one of them a working box.

 

[yRaz]

"He believes that for prices to normalize, either software developers will have to find ways to build AI systems that require less memory, or the hardware industry will need to increase production capacity."

Does anyone really think either of those WON'T happen?!!? Centuries of progress tells us that tech improves - and production does as well...

The funny thing is that people ARE making AI models that require less memory, just not in the US. China is starting to make its own memory, though that likely won't be allowed to be sold in the US and Musk is alledgidy building a chip fab that will make memory, but that requires that SpaceX doesn't go broke before that happens.

 

[Squid Surprise]

The funny thing is that people ARE making AI models that require less memory, just not in the US. China is starting to make its own memory, though that likely won't be allowed to be sold in the US and Musk is alledgidy building a chip fab that will make memory, but that requires that SpaceX doesn't go broke before that happens.

Yep - and we've been seeing articles like "company xx allocates xx billion to create new fab in xx" for awhile now.... in a few years, RAM will be as cheap or cheaper than ever...

 

[Puiu]

Yep - and we've been seeing articles like "company xx allocates xx billion to create new fab in xx" for awhile now.... in a few years, RAM will be as cheap or cheaper than ever...

Let's hope so because I plan to upgrade my PC around 2030

 

[yRaz]

Yep - and we've been seeing articles like "company xx allocates xx billion to create new fab in xx" for awhile now.... in a few years, RAM will be as cheap or cheaper than ever...

Oddly enough, I am optimistic about the future, but we need a real market crash for it to happen. The "soft landing" the FED aimed for was worse for the long term health if the economy than just ripping off the band-aid and letting the economy recover naturally. If there is anything I like about this AI bubble it is that they have created such a massive debt bubble that no amount of legislation will prevent a real crash from happening. For 90% of American, they were broke before the bubble, they're broke now and they'll be broke after it pops. I'm still 20 years from retirement and our house is paid for, I can weather the storm.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

Oddly enough, I am optimistic about the future, but we need a real market crash for it to happen. The "soft landing" the FED aimed for was worse for the long term health if the economy than just ripping off the band-aid and letting the economy recover naturally. If there is anything I like about this AI bubble it is that they have created such a massive debt bubble that no amount of legislation will prevent a real crash from happening. For 90% of American, they were broke before the bubble, they're broke now and they'll be broke after it pops. I'm still 20 years from retirement and our house is paid for, I can weather the storm.

If the same ratio was broke before, during, and after the crash, then what is the point of hoping for a crash in the first place? Nothing will change.

 

[yRaz]

If the same ratio was broke before, during, and after the crash, then what is the point of hoping for a crash in the first place? Nothing will change.

Because it's the only way to end enshitification and entitled businesses. When I say broke before and after, I'm really talking about the last 2-3 years and the 2-3 years after. A natural economic reset will allow prices to normalize and stop the debt cycle that keeps inflation at sky-high levels going. Real capitalism will return when businesses have to compete with each other on quality and price while also competing for the best talent by paying fair wages.

If we want good products we need businesses to compete on multiple levels. The reason everything sucks and companies are laying off senior talent is all they need to do is spit out minimum viable product( a generous discription) to throw a price tag on.

 

[amghwk]

As I used to say, f-k AI. Despite even veterans saying it's not a bubble, this is going to consume them all.

I just couldn't believe industry veterans are jumping on this AI bulshit.

 

[yRaz]

As I used to say, f-k AI. Despite even veterans saying it's not a bubble, this is going to consume them all.

I just couldn't believe industry veterans are jumping on this AI bulshit.

Why? They just need to the ball rolling long enough to collect their executive bonuses. The shareholders demand AI and corporations are legally required(fiduciary duty) to make money for the shareholders. This goes by quartly results not long term sustainability. It's the corporate equivalent of "living paycheck to paycheck" and it's overall bad for everyone, even the shareholders, but that's how the system works.

 

[toooooot]

I think if the demand stays steady, new companies will appear.
This is a great opportunity for smart people who worked
for companies like Intel or TSMC.

 

[Cyclone7d]

I can't believe someone needed to issue a study to say this.

 

[The Talking Tech]

"He believes that for prices to normalize, either software developers will have to find ways to build AI systems that require less memory, or the hardware industry will need to increase production capacity."

Does anyone really think either of those WON'T happen?!!? Centuries of progress tells us that tech improves - and production does as well...

This is not a question if companies can improve, the question is if they are getting richer and richer by the demand, do they really want to stop that demand?....that's exactly what these corporations are thinking right now.

That's the real question.....

 

[Mark Fuller]

As I used to say, f-k AI. Despite even veterans saying it's not a bubble, this is going to consume them all.

I just couldn't believe industry veterans are jumping on this AI bulshit.

This is not a question if companies can improve, the question is if they are getting richer and richer by the demand, do they really want to stop that demand?....that's exactly what these corporations are thinking right now.

That's the real question.....

I remember in economics class in college Hitler's famous guns or butter speech. And in this very journal we keep discussing family farms being sold for data centers and the water rights with them. Is there no one to balance the scales? LIke amghwk said to AI, I don't use it myself. I firmly believe the best way is to do it yourself to this day. I don't go by the where there's a will there's an Ai philosphy.

 

[The Talking Tech]

The memory shortage is real, but make no mistake this also serves as the perfect excuse for companies to raise their prices beyond their wildest dreams and introduce follow up products at prices they would never drop again.

Just look at Xbox and PlayStation console prices right now...yes memory have made them go as high 50% as they keep announcing more price hikes in the upcoming weeks....that's them being opportunistic as they are preconditioning the consumer not to complain when they get to announce their next $1200.00 dollars console... when the norm should have been $500.00

Buying any overpriced piece of technology right now it would only feed into their purpose and to our misery.

Be smart, and don't....

 

[Squid Surprise]

This is not a question if companies can improve, the question is if they are getting richer and richer by the demand, do they really want to stop that demand?....that's exactly what these corporations are thinking right now.

That's the real question.....

No… collusion only works when everyone is on board… but… it never lasts long. One company always thinks “I can undercut my rival and make more”… and governments (despite fearmongering authors and posters) DO come down on companies when there is proof - which would eventually come out…

Secrets are much harder to keep in the Information Age… just takes one whistleblower…

 

[The Talking Tech]

No… collusion only works when everyone is on board… but… it never lasts long. One company always thinks “I can undercut my rival and make more”… and governments (despite fearmongering authors and posters) DO come down on companies when there is proof - which would eventually come out…

Secrets are much harder to keep in the Information Age… just takes one whistleblower…

Right now hard drive manufacturers are being investigated for a potential lawsuit but by the time they are set to go to trial and then them settling with the prosecutors by then those companies would've made billions and billions of dollars more than the penalty imposed....and every company right now is playing it by "it's far more profitable to ask for forgiveness than for permission"

 

[Mark Fuller]

The memory shortage is real, but make no mistake this also serves as the perfect excuse for companies to raise their prices beyond their wildest dreams and introduce follow up products at prices they would never drop again.

Just look at Xbox and PlayStation console prices right now...yes memory have made them go as high 50% as they keep announcing more price hikes in the upcoming weeks....that's them being opportunistic as they are preconditioning the consumer not to complain when they get to announce their next $1200.00 dollars console... when the norm should have been $500.00

Buying any overpriced piece of technology right now it would only feed into their purpose and to our misery.

Be smart, and don't....

An artificial shortage induced, no doubt, by greed. It's just another ploy to make you buy new stuff from them to keep up. Like hardware requirements for new os's.