Winners & losers: The memory shortages pushing consumer electronics prices higher are expected to worsen through the rest of this year and into 2027, with possible relief not arriving until 2028. While manufacturers and industry analysts largely attribute the spike to AI infrastructure demand, a new California lawsuit accuses the three companies that dominate DRAM and NAND production of conspiring to exploit those conditions and artificially inflate prices.
Ethan Tan, a memory industry consultant and former Samsung China executive, told Jefferies Equity Research analysts during a recent briefing that he expects memory prices to rise by 40% to 50% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the prior quarter, and by another 30% to 40% in Q4. Those figures significantly exceed prior estimates from Western investors and Jefferies' own internal research.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron together produce nearly all of the world's DRAM and NAND, which commands far higher margins in AI data centers than in consumer PCs, smartphones, or game consoles.
– P Equity Research 📰 (@pequityresearch) June 22, 2026
With data center demand currently exceeding the three companies' combined production capacity, prices have climbed as much as 700% over four years. Consumer memory has grown prohibitively expensive as a result, prompting steep price hikes from Apple, Sony, and Microsoft, among others.
Tan calculates that since advances in semiconductor nodes will only increase supply by 7% to 8% in 2026, shortages will persist into next year, when prices could rise another 40% to 45% annually. A combination of expanding supply and moderating AI demand may push prices back down 15% to 20% in 2028.
Also read: DDR5 Prices Are Broken, So We Tested Cheaper Chinese RAM
Furthermore, the impact of Chinese suppliers such as CXMT is expected to be limited in 2026 and 2027, primarily because domestic manufacturers lack access to the advanced fabrication techniques, such as EUV lithography, needed to produce next-generation chips.
Benchmarks show that CXMT's DDR5 RAM is already viable for consumer PCs, and Apple has been lobbying the US government for permission to source from the blacklisted company. But CXMT will not be able to advance to DDR6 or HBM3E in the near term. Tan does, however, expect China's domestic NAND technology to reach parity with the rest of the industry by 2028.
A group of 17 California plaintiffs argues that the situation is at least partly by design. As reported by Law360, a new lawsuit accuses Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron of deliberately restricting DRAM supply to inflate prices in an anticompetitive manner.
If the case moves forward, it would be at least the third memory price-fixing scandal in roughly 30 years.
In Garciaguirre et al. v. Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. et al., the plaintiffs accuse the trio of curtailing DRAM production even as prices rose, pivoting capacity toward HBM server memory, and eliminating conventional supply channels to push prices higher. Their central argument: in a truly competitive market, at least one manufacturer would have increased output in response to rising prices, forcing a reaction from the others.
The case also highlights the towering barrier to entry that has kept advanced DRAM and NAND production in the hands of just three players. Building fabs costs tens of billions of dollars, takes years, and requires decades of accumulated trade secrets. US export controls further prevent Chinese companies like CXMT from acquiring the most advanced manufacturing equipment.
If the case moves forward, it would be at least the third memory price-fixing scandal in roughly 30 years.
Samsung, SK Hynix (then Hynix), Micron, and the now-defunct DRAM divisions of Infineon and Elpida pleaded guilty to conspiring to fix prices between 1998 and 2002, with Samsung paying a $300 million fine and SK Hynix paying $185 million.
The same three giants came under suspicion again when prices spiked in the late 2010s, triggering a US class action in 2018, which was ultimately dismissed on appeal for lack of sufficient evidence, and a Chinese government investigation.
