Tech layoffs are becoming the new normal

[gamerk2]

Actually, core inflation is now 3.8%. And his argument went straight over your head. The inflation rate is down from a year ago, but the inflation itself is here to stay. The damage is permanent. Even if the inflation rate today were zero, the 30% cumulative inflation from the last 3 years has taken a third of the value of all bank accounts, retirement funds, and other dollar-denominated assets. Forever.

If you lost a third of your heart, liver, and lung function, would you be ecstatic, just because the doctor told you that you're now only losing a further 3.8% per year?

Counterpoint: On average [which yes, I know leaves some people behind], raises the past few years have more then matched inflation.

 

[gamerk2]

yep - deflation would be would give the consumer more purchasing power for sure. inflation takes time to go through the markets themselves

The Fed will *never* allow deflation. The problem is if consumers know goods will be cheaper in the future, they wait for the price drops. The problem is this becomes self-reinforcing, which leads to massive economic problems.

 

[gamerk2]

Fake liberal news. Inflation was at 1.9% under Trump, its nearly 9-10% under Biden.
Under Biden, Food is up 33.7%, Energy is up 32.8%, Electricity is up 27.1% and Shelter is up 22.3%.
Forbes is liberal garbage, it's like quoting Rolling Stone.

Inflation tends to be low during major economic contractions; news at 11.

Also, getting everyone back to work post-COVID was the correct economic choice, otherwise you *still* get inflation via shortages all throughout the supply chain. And thankfully, unlike Carter in '78 (and to a lesser extent, FDR in '37 and Obama in 2010), Biden did not stop spending too soon and cause a secondary spike in unemployment.

Yes, the Fed should have raised rates about 6 months sooner then they did; yes, they should probably do another half-point rate hike (yay for "Modern Monetary Theory" and the assumption rates need to be near-zero for the economy to function). But at the end of the day, we got unemployment down from 15.1% to under 4% in just under a year. By contrast, that took almost 10 years the last time we had a recession. And the US economy continues to outperform literally every other economy on the planet as a result.

Also, I note not everything you listed is due strictly to inflation. Energy is up sorely because Oil is up, which was going to happen by virtue of the lockdowns ending. The fact Biden has keep prices hovering around #3/Gallon despite demand picking up *and* Russias oil being off the market is outstanding all things considered. Housing prices are a function of demand more then anything else (though the continuing tariffs on Steel certainly aren't helping matters). Food is partially a consequence of the Ukraine war, since Ukraine was Europe's larges producer.

Point being: Not everything is Biden's fault, as hard as that is to believe. Even if it was, the decision to tackle unemployment first was the correct one.

 

[gamerk2]

Oops! Trump ran a $3.1T deficit in 2020 -- to combat a once-per-century pandemic. And Democrats actually demanded he spend even more than that.

CNN, Mar 2020: "...The Trump administration is headed for a budget clash with Congress, with calls for deep spending cuts that lawmakers are likely to ignore as the nation’s debt hits a record level...."

Biden, however, in just the last three years, has ran up total deficit spending of $5.85T, and is on track to add another $2T to that for 2024.

Lets look at some yearly figures to get a fair comparison, shall we?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget [I know, but easiest source I could find]

Budget deficit as a % of GDP:

2015: -2.4%
2016: -3.2%
2017: -3.5%
2018: -3.8%
2019: -4.6%
2020: -14.9%
2021: -12.3%
2022: -5.5%

The number continues to come down as the Fed eases off the spigot; the key is to do it gradually so you don't accidentally cause a recession (which would raise the number again due to lost tax revenue). It's also worth noting the debt as a percentage of GDP rose through the entirety of the Trump administration even before the pandemic hit (remember 2019 was before any pandemic related spending, and that number was 4.6%) so you can't exactly claim Trump was doing any better on that front.

 

[Dimitrios]

Anyone heard what's happening with shady TYSON foods? That's your answer.

 

[Endymio]

Counterpoint: On average [which yes, I know leaves some people behind], raises the past few years have more then matched inflation.

This isn't true at all. 10 of 12 Biden's first quarter's in office, real wages declined when adjusted for inflation. And the trend continues.

Here's a report from 2022:

"..According to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 1.0% from May to June and are down 3.6% from the same time last year...."

And a report from May 2023:

"US weekly wages fell in 2022, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics figures"

New Figures Show US Wages Fell in 2022, Countering Previous Data

US weekly wages fell in 2022, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics figures, revealing widespread softness that wasn’t previously evident in other data.

www.bloomberg.com

And some reports from just a week ago:

"US salaries are falling. Employers say compensation is just 'resetting'...."

US salaries are falling. Employers say compensation is just 'resetting'

Salaries for new roles are stagnating – and in some cases, falling. Some employers may be looking to cut costs, but the lack of wage growth may be a matter of post-pandemic correction.

www.bbc.com

AND:

"...According to a wage tracker at Indeed, wages in the U.S. have fallen sharply over the last year, hovering near pre-pandemic levels when competition was less fierce...."

 

[Endymio]

Lets look at some yearly figures to get a fair comparison, shall we? ...

The number continues to come down....

You forgot to add 2023 onto that list:

2017: -3.5%
2018: -3.8%
2019: -4.6%
2020: -14.9%
2021: -12.3%
2022: -5.5%
2023: -6.3%

So, the deficit -- even as a share of GDP rose in 2023, and is projected to rise even further in 2024.

(remember 2019 was before any pandemic related spending, and that number was 4.6%) so you can't exactly claim Trump was doing any better on that front.

Did you forget the fact that Democrats seized control of Congress in 2018, and attempted to ram through even larger spending increases? And Trump shutting down the federal government *twice* over his refusal to sign even larger budgets? When two parties are fighting over a budget, and one wants less spending while the other one wants more, it's pretty clear where the blame for excessive spending lies.